Merkel toughens up
Frustrated with Putin, Germany and its chancellor may be tiring of Ostpolitik
ANGELA Merkel (pictured) is a disciplined
and cautious public speaker. So when she makes statements that seem
fired by passion and resolve, it is good to take note. If those
statements prompt her foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to urge
a softer tone, something big probably happened.
So it did in Sydney, Australia, on November 17th, when Mrs Merkel talked at the Lowy Institute for International Policy.
Her main subject was the aggression of Russia’s Vladimir Putin in
Ukraine. At the G20 summit, Mrs Merkel had just met with Mr Putin for
hours in what appears to have been another frustrating exchange. Mrs
Merkel reiterated her assurances, mainly directed at the pacifists in
her German home audience, that there can be no military solution to the
conflict. (Germany’s allies in the Baltics and Poland are less sure
about that.) But, she added, that does not mean that the West cannot
respond resolutely in other ways, above all economically.
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In particular, Mrs Merkel stated more
clearly than ever her fears that the conflict could spread and become a
“wider conflagration”. It is not just about Ukraine, she elaborated, but
“about Moldova, about Georgia. If this continues, we must wonder: Do we
have to ask [Putin] when it comes to Serbia, ask when it’s about the
western Balkans? We cannot reconcile this with our values.”
Mr Putin’s aggression and cynical
double-talk do indeed challenge Germany’s most basic assumptions.
Postwar, post-reunification, postmodern Germany has learned to live by
rules and norms. Among the highest such rules is the sanctity of modern
borders. (One of the first things that Helmut Kohl, a former chancellor,
did after the Berlin Wall fell 25 years ago was to reassure Poland that
Germany would forever recognise the Oder-Neisse border. This, among
other gestures, made reunification possible.) Mr Putin, by contrast,
“tramples on international law,” Mrs Merkel said.
Such clarity frightens many Germans,
including many of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) who govern in
coalition with Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Since the first SPD
chancellor, Willy Brandt, in the early 1970s, they have subscribed to Ostpolitik—a
policy of openness toward (and indefatigable dialogue with) the east,
including the Soviet Union and now Russia. They credit this approach for
bringing down the Iron Curtain, while Americans credit the toughness of
Ronald Reagan.
Several leading Social Democrats reacted
nervously to Mrs Merkel’s statements in Australia. Matthias Platzeck, a
former governor of Brandenburg, urged the West to stay on its “course of
partnership” with Russia. (One may wonder how he defines partnership.)
Sigmar Gabriel, the SPD’s boss, backed him, saying that “the West must
continue to talk to Putin” (which Mrs Merkel would hardly disagree
with). And Mr Steinmeier, her foreign minister, called for prudence in
the choice of words. Rather abruptly, he was this week invited to the
Kremlin for a meeting with Mr Putin.
Mr Putin was a KGB agent in Dresden when the
Berlin Wall fell, and speaks fluent German. He is well aware of the
rift in German sympathies and philosophies. On November 16th, German
public television aired an exclusive interview with him in which he
mixed charm, half-truths and fabrication to try to seduce the German
public. He has understood that Germany may be the key country in the
Western alliances, both NATO and the European Union, and Mrs Merkel the
key leader.
She, like Germany’s president, Joachim Gauck, is from
what used to be East Germany. She speaks Russian and is said to know Mr
Putin better than any other Western leader does. Until now, Mr Gauck,
who has a largely ceremonial office, has been the one talking tough
about Mr Putin. If Mrs Merkel now adopts more of that tone, Mr Putin
will find it harder to drive a wedge between Germany's aversion to
conflict and its commitment to rules and norms. Even Germany's
willingness to talk ultimately has its limits.
