Former Saudi intelligence chief Bandar bin Sultan did not come out of Syria altogether. His
successors, the Saudis continue to work on leadership «Syrian
Revolution» via restructuring of their congregations «jihadist»,
because, as he says, a Saudi official can not rely on the Syrians alone
for the success of «revolution», and should be done in their place.
However, the Qataris and the Saudis, and Jordanians with them, completing Bandariah buried in Syria. The
first observation on the exit Bandariah fields Syrian, is the
convergence of Qatar Saudi Arabia, and the agreement on the management
of the Syrian opposition, armed, and re-organized, especially in the
north, which was imposed on the country not to reconsider their support
for political Islam, but the Salafi «jihadist» whole.
The
plan provides for the establishment of Bandar «Army» of 60 thousand
fighters, has been allocated five billion dollars for arming, and
offered to be trained in camps all over the place, from Jordan. Qatar
and even Saudi city of Taif. The
Americans were working with Jordanian intelligence and Saudi Arabia,
and some tribal leaders in the eastern region of the Syrian, the
recruitment of members of the families of the fennel, and Jabour, and
the Baggara, and Moasmh, and Goran and nodules. And
betrays the appointment of Ahmed al-Shammari Jarba at the head of the
«National Coalition» entrenched opposition from tribal option with
Bender and Americans.
The
fears come true «jihadist», especially the organization «Islamic state
in Iraq and the Levant» (Daash) to look at the project Bandari, that
constitutes a «Awakening Councils», guns will be directed to them, when
its members perform their goals against the Syrian army. The
Americans, who look to Syria from the perspective of their experience
of Iraq, encouraging the plan because they look to the east of Syria in
the same way that they looked where to Anbar, Iraq's neighbor before: a
solid block of clans excels where tribalism on religious commitment, and
the attractiveness of the Salafist «jihadist», and flanked by
Breakthrough «basement», and entitles members to fight «Daash» and
«Front victory» and others when Thin time.
He
was working on the implementation of the plan may Bandar took years of
preparations, when the decision was made to disarm him and the Syrian
file be given to Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef. Were
recruited hundreds of fighters, who have been trained American and
Jordanian and Pakistani, and poured many weapons to Jordan in
particular.
But
abandoning the plan Bender is not due to the failure of the owner in
its implementation, as is widely believed today, a belief that does not
reflect the fact that most of the operations and the groups that chose
funding, pending the establishment of «army» clan and that was
threatening Damascus, planned and financed by the Saudi prince,
especially the process large Otaiba in East Gouta against the Syrian
army last November.
In
fact did not give enough time to Bandar to go far in the implementation
of the plan, and prepare for a major military action, proceeding from
the south towards Damascus, Syria, was believed to be the only way to
topple the Syrian regime. Was
the former intelligence chief has a road map to go to Damascus, but
they require more time than can be waiting for his rivals in Riyadh, on
the one hand, and threaten the other hand even ally Jordan.
It
is also a road map expensive for the United States, as you go ambitions
Bandar beyond what is now Washington wants in Syria, which no longer
seeks, after the deal «chemical» and removed, to a military solution on
the way Bandariah, topples friends and enemies together, and undermines
the foundations of any stability in Syria for many years, and threatens
the security of Israel and Jordan.
Jordanians objected to the plan and Bandar Artdadadtha them, and asked for the transfer of operations to Taif training. The Jordanians are not secondary players in the war against Syria and its options. The
Jordanians have complained to the Americans, during the recent visit of
King Abdullah II to Washington, the risk of any broad attack stems from
Jordan on security, and shelter «Army» of 60 thousand fighters,
medium-term and caring for an attack on Damascus, Amman. Abdullah
complained to Russian President Vladimir Putin, during his visit to
Moscow two weeks ago, delayed the Syrian army in the decisive militarily
in the region of Daraa. He
complained Jordanians Americans have fears of loose command groups of
the Syrian armed forces and the inability to control the flow across the
border on the southern front, Mindful Jordanians that any broad attack
would lead to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Syrians to
Jordan, and exacerbating their crisis at best, and the fall of the
Syrian regime would mean the worst, and the start of the countdown for
the fall of the Hashemite regime itself, with the return of the Islamist
victors to Amman.
What is the alternative plan, and how it works on the Saudis and Qataris fleshed?
Says
a Western expert, returning from the north of Syria, the Saudis and
Qataris, working together on an alternative plan for Bandar, depends on
the crowd in the north of Syria, and to change their policy towards
groups «jihadist», and the restructuring of the groups run by the
Chamber of standardized processes in Antioch, and not only support the
princes War Syrians separately, or to finance some limited operations
against Syrian army positions.
The
aim of this cooperation, in the first phase, to choose the best
militant groups and less extreme or linked «Al-Qaeda», like «Corps
Levant», and «Supporters of the right», and some battalions «Front
rebels Syria», and assembly of the battalions small, such as «Noureddine
Zangi »in Aleppo, and the unification of the local battalions sporadic
Tbaya« victory »and« Daash »for financial reasons, not ideology.
It
is believed intelligence officers Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkish
groups «jihadist» will not pose a large force, if in fact local groups
alliance with them, and that the nucleus «victory» or «Daash», or «free
Levant», will not be relevant, if it was dismantling its alliances with
fighters of towns and villages in northern Syria, especially in Aleppo
and Idlib.
The
aim of this restructuring to secure the land controlled by the
opposition and run by the cantons, and the protection of Aleppo progress
of the Syrian army. The
aim of the recent operation against the headquarters of the Air
Intelligence and the western countryside of Aleppo in general to stop
the advance of the army in Aleppo East threatened siege. It
also is working to raise the level of armament and planting supporters
and supporters, inside the armed groups to facilitate coordination among
them, and the resumption of fighting against the Syrian army more
broadly.
And
goes Qataris in rapprochement with the Saudis, who are working to
weaken political Islam, to the extent the agreement on withholding aid
to the group «Muslim Brotherhood» in the region, and stop funding the
largest militant groups that have requested Riyadh stop funding from
Doha, such as «free Sham» which was the platoon the strongest in the
north of Syria. Complain
fighters «free Sham» of non-payment of their salaries for four months,
and a lack of funding and ammunition, which is Qatar, Kuwait and the
Salafi networks are doing, until recently.
It
is clear that the Saudis, not the Americans, those who decide military
action against the Syrian army, but the Saudis are committed to the red
lines of America, in the framework of restructuring the menu: No
anti-aircraft missiles, and to continue training and preparation, and do
not cooperate with the groups placed on the terrorism list, such as «
Front victory », despite the fact that Americans themselves have tried,
with the former ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, and failed to win over
the« free Sham »led by Abu Khalid Syrian until his death two months
ago. Not differ «free Sham» much for «victory» in nature «base», especially in the core nucleus of veterans «jihad» Afghan.
The
Turks began weeks ago to monitor more serious border crossings with
Syria, and the search for weapons that do not want to go to the groups
«Al-Qaeda», or those that are not subject to the directives of the
operating room at the Antioch Unified, or rebel against the Turkish
intelligence. It
has become very normal to stretch kilometer-long convoys of trucks
crossing at the fancy door, and wait a week or sometimes two weeks, to
pass on its cargo scanning device (scanner), and to ensure respect for
the orders of the operating room Arabia, the Qatar-Turkey.
It
seems that the restructuring will lead, according to an expert in the
north-west of the Syrian, to weaken the groups «jihadist» large, and
subject to the Saudi strategy, without actually found from the axis and a
moderate centrist.
The promotion of the commander of the «Front rebels Syria» beauty known in the framework of ongoing restructuring. And
has been providing building contractor, and a getaway former Mount
corner, substitute moderate for «jihadist», and «the General Staff of
the army free» failed, but his comments to the newspaper «The
Independent» British recently for «lack of hostility to the base, which
is battling deservedly Syrian regime», as well as corruption, revealed
the futility of betting on the crystal axis moderate.
Mohammed Oak
Source: Ambassador
