Wednesday, September 4, 2013

War With Iran: The Very Real Threat of WWIII Will Come Not From Iran, But From Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel

War With Iran: The Very Real Threat of WWIII Will Come Not From Iran, But From Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel

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War With Iran: The Very Real Threat of WWIII Will Come Not From Iran, But From Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel
© donedall gollop
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was in the United States over the weekend for a United N summit. Nothing out of the normal there. What is out of the normal is that he used his trip to go on television interviews telling demanding that the United States set specific conditions (red lines) on Iran that would trigger military action if crossed. Let me repeat, a foreign head of state came to the United States and demanded that we lay out on the table conditions in which we will with no uncertainty use our military if another nation meets those conditions. Was this completely out of line?
I think this move was completely out of line and is almost apology worthy. Why? Natanyahu is not talking about setting conditions like, "if you attack another nation, we will attack you" or "if you set off a nuclear weapon test, we will attack you." Netanyahu wants us to lay out conditions that say we will attack you if you "come close" to developing a nuclear weapon. "Come close" are the key words. How do you define it? How do you check how close someone is? Do you demand weapons inspector access and if that is denied do you attack? Maybe that's what Netanyahu wants. One thing is clear, Israel is preparing to attack Iran preemptively. Israel doesn't want to (but will) do this alone and would prefer the United States help and support.
It is completely out of line as a head of state to go to a foreign country and use their airwaves to demand policy that involves military action, i.e. American lives, to support something that your country will do with or without their support. We are talking about a preemptive strike after-all, not responding to an attack or an invasion. Even worse, Netanyahu made the claim that if we had set these "red lines" up in the early 1990s that the first Gulf War could have been avoided. What?!
Israel will attack whether they have our support or not. They have shown in the past they don't care if the world is against their preemptive strikes. The problem is the world has changed substantially since their last preemptive attack. Arab nations all over the Middle East have been going through massive political changes with the Arab Spring in full bloom. Historically, Arabs and Persians (Iranians) have not gotten along very well. This all goes back to the Sunni/Shia split in Islam and goes back centuries. But now with the Arab Spring, could an attack on Iran by Israel be seen as an attack on all of Islam? Could a preemptive attack on another Islamic nation set of the barrel of dynamite in the Middle East that ignites the next global conflict?
I don't rule out that possibility. The war drums against Iran have been beating for a long time, but animosity against Israel in the Middle East has been going on for decades. It is that animosity that had the United States support a dictator in Egypt for 30 years. Now with Egypt in control by the people through democratic elections, we may discover that the majority in Egypt would rather not keep the peace with Israel like their previous dictator did. That's the funny thing about democracy. Sometimes the will of the people support things that other democratic nations do not.
So how could that lead to a global conflict? If an attack by Israel is the catalyst that sets off the whole mess, then I see the attack uniting Islamic countries in the Middle East against Israel. This would lead to a massive build-up and attack on Israel by Middle Eastern countries. The United States at that point would have to get involved. That is where the whole mess boils out of control because with the United States entering the war zone, China and Russia decide they would rather back their Middle Eastern friends and start by providing weapons and artillery. China then uses the Middle East war as a distraction to invade and takeover disputed islands that Japan now owns. This sets off a ground conflict with Japan and China. Eventually Europe enters the theater to back the United States and Israel (and help get them out of the economic mess they're in) and the war escalates into a new set of Axis and Allies, with the United States, Israel, most European countries, and Japan joining the Allies and China, Russia, and the Middle Eastern countries on the Axis side.
I am literally talking about WWIII.
I don't normally make predictions because the fact is, I hate being wrong. While I am not predicting the above scenario, I do believe that within the next decade a global war, not unlike the above scenario, will be set off. What sets it off might be something minor or it might be something major. In any case, the water in the kettle is starting to boil. Many Western economies are struggling or are in shambles. One thing that history has taught us is that wars are a great way to get out of economic messes. I really hope I am wrong (something I rarely, if ever, say)!

Fulfilled Prophecies and Other Evidence that the Bible is the Word of God

Fulfilled Prophecies and Other Evidence that the Bible is the Word of God
Matthew McGee
Hopefully, this article will help remove some of the barriers that hinder many from believing that the Bible is the true Word of God. Perhaps some Christians will have their faith strengthened by the contents discussed here. Maybe some will be able to share their faith more persuasively or confidently. My personal discovery of the points herein have certainly strengthened my faith in the past.
There are many Christians who would discount an article about evidence such as this, claiming, that "people just have to take a blind leap of faith." Certainly, without faith it is impossible to please God. "But without faith it is impossible to please him: for he that cometh to God must believe that he is, and that he is a rewarder of them that diligently seek him" (Hebrews 11:6). But does it necessarily have to be a blind leap? Must one throw one's brains out the window before one can believe what the Bible says about Jesus Christ? The purpose here is to help reduce that blind leap to a confident step.
Why should we believe that the Bible is anything more than a book of fables? Does it have any true credibility that the holy books of other religions do not have?
Our God has foretold the future in the Bible and fulfills His prophecies in it. That sets the Bible apart from the books of false religions. God had this to say about false prophets and false gods: "Let them bring them forth, and shew us what will happen: let them shew the former things, what they be, that we may consider them, and know the latter end of them; or declare us things for to come. Shew the things that are to come hereafter, that we may know that ye are gods ..." (Isaiah 41:22-23). Contrast that with what God says about himself: "Remember the former things of old: for I am God, and there is none else; I am God, and there is none like me, declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times the things that are not yet done, saying, My counsel shall stand, and I will do all my pleasure ..." (Isaiah 46:9-10).
Apollos used the scriptures to convince many Jews of that Jesus was the Messiah in Acts 18:28. "For he mightily convinced the Jews, and that publickly, shewing by the scriptures that Jesus was Christ." He did this using only the Old Testament. The vast majority of the New Testament had not yet been written.
In order for a prophecy to display evidence of divine inspiration, it must contain information that the person speaking or writing the prophecy could not have known by natural means. One way for this to occur is for the prophecy to occur prior to the prophesied event. Therefore, it is important to first show that the 39 books of the Old Testament are truly ancient. We know that the Old Testament scriptures were written before the time of Jesus Christ because He frequently quoted from them. We further know that the scriptures date back to a time long before the birth of Jesus Christ, due to the discoveries found in the dead sea scrolls. But besides this, even those Jews who do not believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God, agree that these 39 books were written well before 300 BC. In the third century BC, the Hebrew scriptures were translated into Greek. This translation was called the Septuagint. Of course, all of the Old Testament scriptures had to have been written for them to have been translated. Malachi, the last book of the Old Testament, was written around 400 BC.
There are hundreds, if not thousands of prophecies in the Bible. Many have already been fulfilled. For example, Daniel prophesied the coming of the Medo-Persian, Greek, and Roman empires, Alexander the Great, and the details of many military battles. Many other prophecies are still awaiting their fulfillment. In the pages that follow, I've listed several examples in which God shows us through prophecy that the Bible is truly His Word. I have specifically chosen prophecies whose fulfillments are either documented in secular reference books, or being set up before our very eyes today. This way, the reader will know that I am not just making up the fulfillments, nor did the Bible writers simply fabricate them in order to add credit to their own writings.
The prophecies examined below are divided into two groups:
Prophecy fulfillments well documented in secular history include (1.) Daniel's prophecy of the 70 weeks and (2.) the people of Israel to be scattered into all nations and to live in fear and persecution.
Prophecies for which we see the fulfillment being set up today include (3.) Jerusalem to be a burdensome stone for all people, (4.) the people of Israel to be regathered to the land of Israel, (5.) the sacrificial system of worship in the temple to be resumed, (6.) a mark in the right hand or forehead to be required to buy or sell, and (7.) tribulation so severe that no flesh would survive.
1. Daniel's prophecy of the 70 weeks
While the prophet Daniel was captive in Babylon in about 538 BC, God revealed the prophecy of Israel's 70 weeks to him in Daniel 9:24-26. "Seventy weeks (Hebrew word: "shabuwa") are determined upon thy people (Israel) and upon thy holy city (Jerusalem), to finish the transgression, and to make an end of sins, and to make reconciliation for iniquity, and to bring in everlasting righteousness, and to seal up the vision and prophecy, and to anoint the most Holy. Know therefore and understand, that from the going forth of the commandment to restore and to build Jerusalem unto the Messiah the Prince shall be seven weeks, and threescore and two weeks: the street shall be built again, and the wall, even in troublous times. And after threescore and two weeks shall Messiah be cut off (killed), but not for himself: and the people of the prince that shall come shall destroy the city (Jerusalem) and the sanctuary (the temple) ...." In this prophecy, the following sequence of events are revealed.
A. There would one day be a commandment to rebuild the city of Jerusalem, which the Babylonians had destroyed years earlier. This was fulfilled in 445 BC by Artaxerxes, king of the Medo-Persian Empire (465-424 BC), nearly a century after the prophecy of Daniel 9 was given. See Nehemiah 2:1-8 for the account of how Nehemiah asked Artaxerxes for the permission and the means to rebuild the ruins of the city of Jerusalem. In Nehemiah 2:1, we see that this took place "... in the month Nisan (the first month of the Hebrew calendar which occurs in early spring), in the twentieth year of Artaxerxes the king (445 BC) ...."
B. From the giving of this commandment to the Messiah would be 69 (seven plus threescore and two) weeks (shabuwa) after which the Messiah would be cut off (killed). This was fulfilled when Jesus Christ was crucified on the 14th day of Nisan (the passover) of 32 AD, right on schedule.
In order to calculate the lengths of time mentioned in this prophecy, we first need to understand what a "shabuwa" is (translated into English in Daniel 9 as "weeks" or "week"). The Hebrew word shabuwa means a "period of seven". It could be seven days or seven years. In scripture, it is used both ways, and we have to tell by the context which one it is. Often, shabuwa is used in scripture to describe the length of a feast or some other event that obviously is only a matter of days in length. But sometimes a shabuwa clearly means seven years, such as in Genesis 29:27-28. After Jacob was given Leah, in place of Rachel, for a wife after serving Laban for seven years, Laban told him. "27 Fulfil her week (shabuwa), and we will give thee this also for the service which thou shalt serve with me yet seven other years. 28 And Jacob did so, and fulfilled her week (shabuwa): and he gave him Rachel his daughter to wife also." Like in Genesis 29, shabuwa is used in Daniel 9 to refer to periods of seven years (not days). Some Bible teachers refer to these as "weeks of years".
When calculating the 69 seven year periods, a shabuwa is a period of seven years, and seven times 69 is 483 years. But we know from the detail of the seventieth week provided in the book of Revelation, that these years are 360 days rather than the years on our present calendar which, figuring in leap years, are approximately 365.25 days. Revelation 12:14 describes the second half of the tribulation as "a time, times, and half a time" (1 + 2 + 1/2 = 3 1/2 years). Revelation 12:6 says this is "a thousand two hundred and threescore (1260) days", and Revelation 13:5 says it is "forty and two months". Since 1260 / 42 = 30 and 1260 / 3.5 = 360, we know that in this prophecy, God is counting months as 30 days each and years as 360 days each. Since the tribulation is a part of the 70 weeks of Daniel's prophecy, we know that the 360-day years must be used. So to see how many of our years this is, we calculate 483 * (360 / 365.25) = 476 years, 0 months, and a few days. Moving forward from the 445 BC date, this brings us to the early spring of 32 AD (476 - 445 + 1 = 32), when Jesus Christ was crucified. The one must be added to account for the fact that there is no "year 0". The year after 1 BC was 1 AD. The calculation here is somewhat simplified and shows that at a minimum, the prophecy was accurate to within a very few days. Some scholars have used additional evidence for the difficult task of calculating this prophecy to the exact day. To do this, they have to know the day of the month that the commandment of Artaxerxes was given plus the astrological history of moon phases as viewed from Jerusalem, since the months of the Hebrew calendar are based upon observance of the moon phases. As for me, I am more than satisfied to know that the prophecy in Daniel 9, given several hundred years in advance, was accurate to the very month, but readers who are inclined to pursue the more detailed calculation to the exact day are welcome to do so.
Now one might wonder why God didn't use our 365.25-day years in His prophecy? We cannot be certain, but perhaps He was using the same number of days per year that the earth had when He created it. We know from Genesis 7:11 and 8:3-4 that a calendar with 30 day months was used before the great flood. It may be that in the catastrophe of the flood, the earth's rotational speed was increased slightly. One way this could happen would be if the earth's density were increased due to the tremendous seismic activity and the collapse of the water canopy which God used to trigger the flood. Genesis 7:11-12 says, "... all the fountains of the great deep broken up, and the windows of heaven were opened. And the rain was upon the earth forty days and forty nights." This increase of density would have increased the earth's rotational speed by reducing its moment of inertia in the same way that spinning ice skaters spin faster when they pull their out-stretched arms in closer to their bodies. If the period of the earth's revolution around the sun did not change, then there would be more days per year after the great flood than there were before the flood. Now let's continue to the next event in the sequence of the Daniel 9 prophecy.
C. The people of the prince which is to come will destroy Jerusalem and the temple. This was fulfilled by Titus and the Roman Empire in 70 AD. In the war with the Jews, the Roman army besieged and destroyed Jerusalem, burned the temple, and killed more than one million Jews.
It is interesting to note that when this destruction was prophesied in 538 BC, Jerusalem and temple had not even been rebuilt yet. The part of this prophecy regarding the "prince which is to come" concerns the AntiChrist who must come from the revived Roman Empire in the future tribulation which will be the seventieth week of the prophecy (Daniel 9:27).
There are several amazing things about this prophecy: It accurately predicted the time of Jesus Christ's crucifixion, more than 500 years before it happened. It sandwiched His death between two future events (A and C) which have both been very well documented in history. Both of the events came true even though they were prophesied hundreds of years in advance. When one considers that this prophecy amazingly predicted events A and C above, then believing that this prophecy was also correct on event B does not exactly require a leap of faith.
2. Israel to be scattered into all nations and to live in fear and persecution
One prophecy that occurs again and again in the Old Testament is the prophecy of the people of Israel being scattered to all nations. Certainly this has happened. The northern ten tribes were taken into captivity by Assyrians around 712 BC. The other two tribes were taken captive by the Babylonians around 606 BC. Only a small fraction of the Jews returned from Babylon to resettle the land of Israel in 536 BC. But the biggest blow came in 70 AD when Titus of Rome attacked Jerusalem, destroying the city and the temple. The Jews that were not killed were scattered into all nations.
Leviticus 26:33-38 says, "And I will scatter you among the heathen, and will draw out a sword after you: and your land shall be desolate, and your cities waste. Then shall the land enjoy her sabbaths, as long as it lieth desolate, and ye be in your enemies' land; even then shall the land rest, and enjoy her sabbaths. As long as it lieth desolate it shall rest; because it did not rest in your sabbaths, when ye dwelt upon it. And upon them that are left alive of you I will send a faintness into their hearts in the lands of their enemies; and the sound of a shaken leaf shall chase them; and they shall flee, as fleeing from a sword; and they shall fall when none pursueth. And they shall fall one upon another, as it were before a sword, when none pursueth: and ye shall have no power to stand before your enemies. And ye shall perish among the heathen, and the land of your enemies shall eat you up."
Deuteronomy 28:64-67 says, "And the LORD shall scatter thee among all people, from the one end of the earth even unto the other; and there thou shalt serve other gods, which neither thou nor thy fathers have known, even wood and stone. And among these nations shalt thou find no ease, neither shall the sole of thy foot have rest: but the LORD shall give thee there a trembling heart, and failing of eyes, and sorrow of mind: And thy life shall hang in doubt before thee; and thou shalt fear day and night, and shalt have none assurance of thy life: In the morning thou shalt say, Would God it were even! and at even thou shalt say, Would God it were morning! for the fear of thine heart wherewith thou shalt fear, and for the sight of thine eyes which thou shalt see."
One only needs to look up "Jews" in any encyclopedia for details the long history of persecution, massacre, and expulsion from various countries. Hitler's murder of 6,000,000 was not an isolated event, but part of a 2000 year trend. For example, thousands of Jews were massacred during the time of the Crusades (1000-1300 AD). Persecution of Jews was the norm as all Jews were considered partakers in the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. In the 14th century the plague known as the Black Death swept through Europe killing about one fourth of the population. Jews were often massacred as a result of the accusation that they spread the disease by poisoning water supplies. In 1492, all Jews were expelled from Spain, as was the case in Portugal just five years later. And there is much, much more. Just check any encyclopedia.
Prophecies for which we see the fulfillment being set up today
Suppose a meteorologist forecasts rain on a particular day. The prediction is not fulfilled when the dark clouds roll in, nor when the hard winds begin to blow, nor when the rumbling of the thunder sounds. The prediction is not fulfilled until it actually rains. In the same way, while we are not presently seeing the fulfillments of the five prophecies below, we are seeing the events which may well be setting up their fulfillments. However, we must keep in mind that when we see the clouds, feel the wind, and hear the thunder, we still cannot say with absolute certainty, just how long it will be before it rains.
3. Jerusalem to be a burdensome stone for all people
In 520 BC, more than 500 years before the earthly ministry of Jesus Christ, God said in Zechariah 12:2-3, "Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of trembling unto all the people round about, when they shall be in the siege both against Judah and against Jerusalem. And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it."
There was no political or religious contention over the city of Jerusalem at the time. 500 years before Christianity and 1200 years before Islam, the tiny nation of Israel had just rebuilt Jerusalem from the ruins of the Babylonian conquest. Israel was a tiny nation of less than 50,000 men who had returned from Babylon (Ezra 2:64), a mere remnant of the ancient glory days.
Since then Jerusalem has been conquered and has changed hands more than 30 times. Jerusalem has been swapped between the Medo-Persians, Greeks, Romans, Turks, Egyptians, Moslems, European Crusaders, and others repeatedly over the last 2500 years.
Much of the warring over Jerusalem has been provoked by two errant theologies that came into being around 1000 years after the prophecy above was given. One came from the Moslems who claim that Mohammed ascended to heaven from the temple mount in Jerusalem, which they now claim as an Islamic holy site. That is where they built the Dome of the Rock. The other is replacement theology, a doctrine teaching that the Gentile Christian churches have forever replaced Israel in God's eyes. This teaching was used to fuel the crusades and much anti-Semitism.
In 1996, Israel made plans to proceed with building a new housing subdivision on a barren hillside in East Jerusalem. The Palestinians and Moslem nations were outraged. The European Union wanted in on the negotiations, and updates were broadcast on worldwide television every day. How incredible! Virtually anywhere else in the world, the addition of a new subdivision would do good to get an occasional mention in the local paper. This is not an isolated incident, when Israel broke through an 18 inch wall of rock to create a doorway at the end of a tunnel near the Wailing Wall, it made headlines worldwide. It produced a severe outcry from the Palestinians, and was followed shortly by a retaliatory bombing that killed more than 50 people. Just try to imagine the fury that will be unleashed if Israel were to attempt to rebuild the temple on the same hill as the Islamic Dome of the Rock! But God knew all of this would come to pass and said of Jerusalem, "all the people of the earth be gathered together against it."

Another interesting note is found in Zechariah 14:1-3, "Behold, the day of the LORD cometh, and thy spoil shall be divided in the midst of thee. For I will gather all nations against Jerusalem to battle; and the city shall be taken, and the houses rifled, and the women ravished; and half of the city shall go forth into captivity, and the residue of the people shall not be cut off from the city. Then shall the LORD go forth, and fight against those nations, as when he fought in the day of battle." Note that prior to 1967, this prophecy could not have been fulfilled, since Israel did not have possession of the city of Jerusalem. In the 1967 war with the Arab nations, Israel took back Jerusalem for the first time in nearly 2000 years. So now we see Zechariah 14:1-3 set up for fulfillment.
4. Israel to be regathered
Just as the scattering of the people of Israel was prophesied, the Bible also prophesied that the people of Israel would be regathered to the land of Israel.
"... the LORD thy God will turn thy captivity, and have compassion upon thee, and will return and gather thee from all the nations, whither the LORD thy God hath scattered thee" (Deuteronomy 30:3).
"... Thus saith the Lord GOD; I will even gather you from the people, and assemble you out of the countries where ye have been scattered, and I will give you the land of Israel" (Ezekiel 17:11).
In 1948, Israel became an independent nation for the first time since the Babylonian takeover in 606 BC (more than 2500 years). In the 1990's around half a million Jews have returned to Israel from the former Soviet Union. Hebrew, the language of the Old Testament has been revived. By 300 BC the language of the Jews had changed from Hebrew to Aramaic and Greek. Hebrew had remained an unspoken and dead language until recently. Dead for about 2200 years, in 1948, it was proclaimed the national language of Israel.
Today there are around 5 million Jews in the land of Israel, about one third of the estimated total number in the world. There are still about 5 million in the United States and about another 5 million scattered around the rest of the world, but mostly in the former Soviet Union, where there is still of steady stream of Russian Jews returning to Israel.
5. Sacrificial system of worship in the temple to be resumed
The Bible prophesied that Israel in the end-times would be under the Mosaic law including worship in the rebuilt temple (Daniel 9:27, Matthew 24:15, and Revelation 11:1). Recently the orthodox Jews of Israel have been gaining much greater political power in Israel. In the wake of the 1999 elections, the different religious factions hold a large number of the 120 positions in the Knesset, Israel's legislature. The two largest secular political parties, Labor and Likud, must work to appease them and create alliances in order to establish a majority in the government. As a result, the religious parties were able to secure 5 cabinet posts in the new government. Also, most all businesses and many streets are now closed on the Sabbath in Israel in observance of the day of rest.
Many of the ancient bowls, utensils, and other artifacts used in the ancient worship in Israel have been either made or uncovered by archeologists. New priestly robes have been designed and now hang in the closets, and a group of young Israeli men have already been selected to carry out the priestly duties. Groups of orthodox Jews have gone so far as to make blueprints for the new temple.
6. Cannot buy or sell without mark
In Revelation 13:16-18, the Anti-Christ, referred to as the beast, "... causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads: and that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name."
For the first time in 1900 plus years since this book was written, we now have the technology to do this. A tiny chip could be placed under the skin of ones hand that contained identification plus medical and financial records. Purchases would be made by electronic transfer without the use of cash. In addition, this could serve as a global positioning device, allowing the tracking of one's position to within a few feet, anywhere on the planet. The idea is sure to sell. A cashless society could virtually eliminate muggings, the drug trade, and tax evasion. We cannot say with absolute certainty, that this chip will be the vehicle through which the mark of the beast will be given, but it would effectively perform the function.
7. No flesh would survive
In Matthew 24:22, Jesus Christ prophesied about the coming great tribulation "... except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved ...." War on this scale would have been unthinkable in the first century. Even the worst of wars could not even come close to annihilating all life from the planet. But in our generation, all of that has changed. With our modern nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, this could easily be done. The rider of the red horse in Revelation 6:4 takes "... peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword." The red horse is followed by the black horse of famine in verses 5-6. Scientists predict famine caused by reduced sunlight would follow a nuclear war, should one occur. So here we see another prophecy which is now set up to be fulfilled. It should also be noted that tremendous seismic and volcanic activity could produce results similar to that of nuclear weapons.
Unity of Scripture Despite a Diversity of Writers
The Bible was written by about 40 different writers scattered over a period of about 1500 years. The writers could not have collaborated on the effort, since they lived in different periods of time. Yet the Bible has the unity of a book written by one Author. There are many prophecies in the Old Testament, going as far back as Genesis, which prophesy things which will not be completed until the future events described in the book of Revelation take place. Are we to believe that the Old Testament prophets each decided to write the beginning of a great story and then said, "Maybe in a thousand years or so, someone will come along and write a good ending to this?" That would be ridiculous. No man would decide to do such a thing on his own, much less a large group of men who did not know each other or even live at the same time. Therefore, the unity of scripture despite a diversity of writers is evidence of the Bible's divine authorship.
Ear Tickling Prophets?
There are some who accuse the writers of the Bible, all of whom were men of Israel, of simply writing grandiose words that the people or the king at that time wanted to hear. Some accuse the writers of writing, for political gain, words intended to increase Israel's standing in the eyes of the world. However, anyone who has read very much of the Bible at all should know better. The Bible exposes all of the following:
God says the people of Israel are wicked: In the scriptures, God is almost constantly telling the people of Israel how wicked, stubborn, and disobedient they are. In Elijah's day, God goes so far as to say that there are only 7000 men in Israel who had not bowed and worshipped pagan idols (1 Kings 19:10 and 19:18), and this in a nation of several million. Upwards of 99% were idol worshippers. They even participated in human sacrifice of their own children. 2 Kings 17:16-17 says, "... they left all the commandments of the LORD their God, and made them molten images, even two calves, and made a grove, and worshipped all the host of heaven, and served Baal. And they caused their sons and their daughters to pass through the fire, and used divination and enchantments, and sold themselves to do evil in the sight of the LORD, to provoke him to anger."
The people of Israel neglected God's Word: In King Josiah's day, the story is told of how the priests FOUND the scrolls of the scriptures in the temple (2 Kings 22:8-13). The word of God had been neglected for so long that the priests did not even know what it was or where it was.
The people of Israel were to be punished: The Bible also repeatedly predicts the people of Israel being scattered into all nations and being greatly persecuted for their wickedness. They would be hated and despised more than any nation. The scriptures detail how they murdered their promised Messiah, the Son of God.
Israel's kings were wicked: The Bible describes the character of each king in Judah and Israel. Almost all of them are characterized as desperately wicked. Even most of those very few who received a relatively good report still had their worst character flaws (murder, adultery, and idol worship) outlined in the text. The wickedness of Israel's kings was actually a punishment for them from God. In 1 Samuel 8:10-18, when Israel asked their judge, Samuel, to appoint a king for them, he described all of the burdens their kings would place upon them, ending in verse 18 by saying, "... ye shall cry out in that day because of your king which ye shall have chosen you; and the LORD will not hear you in that day."
These are not the kind of things that anyone would write in order to get in good with the king, and these are certainly not things that the people of Israel wanted to hear. On many occasions, the prophets were beaten, imprisoned, or even killed for the Word they proclaimed. The fact is, there would not be any practical reason for anyone to write the words of the Bible except in obedience to the specific direction of God. So the accusation that the writers wrote for their own political gain is not the least bit logical.
Conclusion
The Bible is like no other book in the world. It is filled with internal evidence that it is the Word of God. No other religion has a book filled with prophecies fulfilled one right after the other. The few books that have even attempted this have been proven to be written by false prophets who cannot foretell the future. But you can trust in the Bible, which is the true Word of God, who proves that He is the Author of it by fulfilled prophecies. As He said more than 2700 years ago:
"... I am God, and there is none like me, declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times the things that are not yet done ..." (Isaiah 46:9-10).
To continue studying evidence of Biblical truth, see Evidence that Jesus Christ is the Messiah.
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No Syrian War to Save Obama’s Face!

No Syrian War to Save Obama’s Face!

Pat Buchanan
by Pat Buchanan on September 3, 2013 · 6 Comments
soldier leaving 2“Catastrophic!” said Sen. John McCain.
If Congress votes no on a resolution calling for U.S. intervention in Syria’s civil war, says McCain, it would be “catastrophic” for U.S. credibility in the world.
Consider what the senator is saying here.
Because Barack Obama, two years ago, said “Assad must go,” and, one year ago, said any use of chemical weapons crosses his “red line,” Congress has no choice but to plunge America into yet another Mideast war.
Can this be? Are we really, as a nation, required to go to war to make good the simple-minded statements of an untutored president who had no constitutional authority to issue his impulsive ultimata?
Are we really required to go to war to get the egg off Obama’s face?
Not since the War of Jenkins’ Ear has there been a dumber cause for a great country to go to war. Is there no way out?
There is, and it’s right in front of us.
The House, Senate or both can vote no on the war resolution and Obama can then say, as did David Cameron, that, while he disagrees, he respects the decision of a Congress in which the Constitution placed sole authority to authorize America’s going to war.
Are Brits now crying “catastrophe!”? Do the Spanish no longer think the Brits will defend Gibraltar? Is Britain now wholly non-credible to the world?
For Obama, and for us, it is the other options that invite catastrophe.
If, for example, the House or Senate votes down the war resolution and Obama, without authorization from Congress, the Security Council, NATO or the Arab League plunges us into a new war this nation does not want to fight, he will be courting a geostrategic and political disaster.
Even if Congress approves a war resolution, the president should think long and hard about diving into a war he sought to avoid and stayed out of for over two years. Make no mistake; if Obama attacks Syria, be it for hours or days, we are in that blood-soaked abattoir for the duration.
In his dramatic statement Saturday, as politically astute as it was constitutionally correct, Obama called Syria “someone else’s war.”
Whose war? It is Shia Alawite vs. Sunni, Muslim vs. Christian, Kurd vs. Arab, Islamist vs. secularist. Backing Bashar Assad are Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. Backing the rebels are Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, al-Qaida, foreign jihadists and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Assad is accused of killing 100,00 people. But that is the total of the dead in a civil war Assad has as much right to fight as the rebels. While his army is accused of using gas on civilians, the Islamist rebels have murdered Christians, massacred captives and engaged in public acts of cannibalism on dead Syrian soldiers.
Gas is a sickening weapon. Yet, there is no evidence thus far that Assad ordered its use. Rebel elements are said to have been found with sarin. As for Americans who tend to prefer white phosphorus, napalm and cluster bombs, upon what lofty moral ground do we stand?
Have we forgotten that Churchill wanted to drop anthrax on Germany and settled for two days of firebombing the defenseless city of Dresden? Or that our great friend Anwar Sadat was the confidante of Gamal Abdel Nasser when Egypt was using poison gas on Yemeni tribesmen?
The United States does not have any national security interest in Syria’s war. Why would we then launch missile attacks to “degrade” Assad’s military, when that army and air force are all that stands between us and a privileged sanctuary for al-Qaida in northern Syria, not unlike what al-Qaida had in Tora Bora and Waziristan.
We are told that if we do not strike Syria — making good on Obama’s threats — Israel, Turkey and even Japan and South Korea will not be able to trust us ever again.


No Syrian War to Save Obama’s Face!

Pat Buchanan
by Pat Buchanan on September 3, 2013 · 6 Comments
soldier leaving 2“Catastrophic!” said Sen. John McCain.
If Congress votes no on a resolution calling for U.S. intervention in Syria’s civil war, says McCain, it would be “catastrophic” for U.S. credibility in the world.
Consider what the senator is saying here.
Because Barack Obama, two years ago, said “Assad must go,” and, one year ago, said any use of chemical weapons crosses his “red line,” Congress has no choice but to plunge America into yet another Mideast war.
Can this be? Are we really, as a nation, required to go to war to make good the simple-minded statements of an untutored president who had no constitutional authority to issue his impulsive ultimata?
Are we really required to go to war to get the egg off Obama’s face?
Not since the War of Jenkins’ Ear has there been a dumber cause for a great country to go to war. Is there no way out?
There is, and it’s right in front of us.
The House, Senate or both can vote no on the war resolution and Obama can then say, as did David Cameron, that, while he disagrees, he respects the decision of a Congress in which the Constitution placed sole authority to authorize America’s going to war.
Are Brits now crying “catastrophe!”? Do the Spanish no longer think the Brits will defend Gibraltar? Is Britain now wholly non-credible to the world?
For Obama, and for us, it is the other options that invite catastrophe.
If, for example, the House or Senate votes down the war resolution and Obama, without authorization from Congress, the Security Council, NATO or the Arab League plunges us into a new war this nation does not want to fight, he will be courting a geostrategic and political disaster.
Even if Congress approves a war resolution, the president should think long and hard about diving into a war he sought to avoid and stayed out of for over two years. Make no mistake; if Obama attacks Syria, be it for hours or days, we are in that blood-soaked abattoir for the duration.
In his dramatic statement Saturday, as politically astute as it was constitutionally correct, Obama called Syria “someone else’s war.”
Whose war? It is Shia Alawite vs. Sunni, Muslim vs. Christian, Kurd vs. Arab, Islamist vs. secularist. Backing Bashar Assad are Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. Backing the rebels are Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, al-Qaida, foreign jihadists and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Assad is accused of killing 100,00 people. But that is the total of the dead in a civil war Assad has as much right to fight as the rebels. While his army is accused of using gas on civilians, the Islamist rebels have murdered Christians, massacred captives and engaged in public acts of cannibalism on dead Syrian soldiers.
Gas is a sickening weapon. Yet, there is no evidence thus far that Assad ordered its use. Rebel elements are said to have been found with sarin. As for Americans who tend to prefer white phosphorus, napalm and cluster bombs, upon what lofty moral ground do we stand?
Have we forgotten that Churchill wanted to drop anthrax on Germany and settled for two days of firebombing the defenseless city of Dresden? Or that our great friend Anwar Sadat was the confidante of Gamal Abdel Nasser when Egypt was using poison gas on Yemeni tribesmen?
The United States does not have any national security interest in Syria’s war. Why would we then launch missile attacks to “degrade” Assad’s military, when that army and air force are all that stands between us and a privileged sanctuary for al-Qaida in northern Syria, not unlike what al-Qaida had in Tora Bora and Waziristan.
We are told that if we do not strike Syria — making good on Obama’s threats — Israel, Turkey and even Japan and South Korea will not be able to trust us ever again.

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Dems may use food-stamp money to pay for Michelle Obama's nutrition initiative

Dems may use food-stamp money to pay for Michelle Obama's nutrition initiative

By Russell Berman - 08/14/10 06:00 AM ET
Democrats who reluctantly slashed a food-stamp program to fund a state-aid bill may have to do so again to pay for a top priority of first lady Michelle Obama.
The House will soon consider an $8 billion child-nutrition bill that’s at the center of the first lady’s “Let’s Move” initiative. Before leaving for the summer recess, the Senate passed a smaller version of the legislation that is paid for by trimming the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly known as the food-stamp program.
The proposed cuts would come on top of a 13.6 percent food-stamp reduction in the $26 billion Medicaid and education state-funding bill that President Obama signed this week.
Food stamps have made multiple appearances on the fiscal chopping block because Democrats have few other places to turn to offset the cost of legislation.
Party leaders raided the budget to find off-setting tax increases and spending cuts to pay for their top legislative priorities, including the roughly $900 billion healthcare law. Congressional pay-as-you-go rules require lawmakers to offset all non-emergency spending.
Democrats have turned to the food-stamp program because funding increases enacted in the stimulus package last year were already scheduled to phase out over time. The changes proposed in the state-aid and nutrition bills would simply cut off that increase early, in March 2014. Because the cuts would not take effect for more than three years, Democratic leaders have voiced the hope that they will be able to stop the cuts in future legislation.
But House liberals are balking now, saying that while they swallowed the food-stamp cuts to pay for urgent funding for Medicaid and teachers, they will not vote for more cuts in the child-nutrition bill. In a letter sent this week to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), 106 House Democrats urged the Speaker to take the House version of the child-nutrition bill, which does not slash food stamps, rather than the Senate version.
“This is one of the more egregious cases of robbing Peter to pay Paul, and is a vote we do not take lightly,” the lawmakers, led by Reps. James McGovern (D-Mass.) and Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) said of their vote on the state-aid bill.
The House version of the child-nutrition bill, authored by Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.), passed the Education and Labor Committee earlier this year, but lawmakers must find a way to pay for it before it comes to the floor for a vote. “Chairman Miller is working to find other ways to pay for this bill,” a spokeswoman said when asked if cuts to the food stamp program would be used.
A House leadership aide noted that the food-stamp decrease approved in the state-aid bill will not take effect right away and will leave the program at the same funding level it was at before the stimulus law was signed. “That doesn’t mean many Democrats are not concerned about the issue, but this is a process which gives us time to deal with immediate issues (like jobs) and helping the economy grow, while giving you time to deal with the food-stamp issue,” the aide said.
The nutrition bill is clearly a priority for Michelle Obama, who has made a push for healthy eating — one of her signature policy issues at White House. When the House version of the nutrition bill won committee approval in July, it marked the first time she weighed in publicly on pending legislation.
The Obama administration has not directly addressed the debate over the food-stamp cuts, but it is backing the Senate bill. “We strongly supported the Senate action and look forward to working with the House to get a final bill onto the president’s desk,” an administration official told The Hill.
The $4.5 billion Senate bill would expand eligibility for school meal programs, establish nutrition standards for all food sold in schools and provide a 6-cent increase for each school lunch to help cafeterias serve healthier meals. The $8 billion House version includes more money for expanding access to school lunches for children in low-income households.
The deeper food-stamp reductions in the Senate version would set an earlier date — in November 2013 — for eliminating the increased benefits passed last year. A family of four would see their benefits reduced by $59 a month, or about 9 percent. The bill would also cut funding for nutrition-education programs aimed at low-income neighborhoods and households.
“It’s very sad. I think it’s just illustrating what dire straits our federal government budget is in,” said Sheila Zedlewski, director of the Urban Institute’s Income and Benefits Policy Center. “It’s unprecedented to raid one safety net program to feed another.”
—This story was updated at 1:40 p.m.

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/house/114271-dems-consider-more-food-stamp-cuts-to-fund-child-nutrition-bill#ixzz2dtFxEjFa
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SNAP Benefits Will Be Cut for All Participants in November 2013

SNAP Benefits Will Be Cut for All Participants in November 2013

Revised August 2, 2013
The 2009 Recovery Act’s temporary boost to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits is scheduled to end on November 1, 2013, resulting in a benefit cut for every SNAP household.  For families of three, the cut will be $29 a month — a total of $319 for November 2013 through September 2014, the remaining months of fiscal year 2014.[2]   That’s a serious loss, especially in light of the very low amount of basic SNAP benefits.  Without the Recovery Act’s boost, SNAP benefits will average less than $1.40 per person per meal in 2014.  (See Table 2 for estimates of the size of the SNAP cut in each state in fiscal year 2014.)  Nationally, the total cut is estimated to be $5 billion in fiscal year 2014.
It seems unlikely that Congress will enact legislation to remedy this problem, as President Obama and some members of Congress have proposed.  Consequently, states need to prepare for the benefit cuts — including determining how they will provide information about the upcoming benefit reduction to participating households and other stakeholders as well as how to manage increased client inquiries when the cut takes effect.

Background on the Benefit Cut

In response to the economic downturn, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) increased Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits across the board as a way of delivering high “bang-for-the-buck” economic stimulus and easing hardship.  ARRA increased SNAP maximummonthly benefits by 13.6 percent beginning in April 2009.[3]   Benefits increased for all participating households and by the same amount by household size (except for those households that qualified for the minimum benefit) in 2009.  For example, for a one-person household, the added benefit was $24 a month; for two persons, it was $44 a month; for three persons, it was $63 a month; and for four persons, it was $80 a month.  The minimum benefit (which is available to eligible one- and two-person households that otherwise qualify for a small benefit or no benefit) rose from $14 to $16.  Because households that receive less than the maximum benefit received the same fixed dollar increase, the increase to average benefits was larger in percentage terms:  about 20 percent.
ARRA provided that SNAP benefit levels would continue at the new higher amount until the program’s regular annual inflation adjustments to the maximum SNAP benefit exceeded those set by ARRA.  The maximum SNAP benefit levels for each household size, which are set each October 1, are equal to the cost of the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) from the preceding June scaled to each household size.  The TFP is the cost of U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) food plan for a family of four to purchase and prepare a bare-bones diet at home.[4]   At the time ARRA was enacted, food price inflation was expected to be high and the TFP cost was expected to exceed the ARRA level in fiscal year 2014.  Food price inflation, however, turned out to be lower than expected over the 2009 to 2013 period, resulting in the pushing out of the date that the TFP was expected to exceed the ARRA level.[5]
In August 2010, Congress passed and the President signed P.L. 111-226, which accelerated the sunset of the ARRA benefit increase to April 2014 and used the estimated savings for state fiscal relief through additional federal funding for school districts to maintain teachers’ jobs and maintaining a higher federal match for Medicaid costs.  Four months later, the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act (P.L. 111-296), which reauthorized Child Nutrition programs, further accelerated the sunset date of ARRA to October 31, 2013, to offset the cost of the legislation.  As a result, beginning on November 1, 2013, SNAP benefit levels will be based on the cost of the June 2013 TFP, which is lower than the ARRA levels.
On August 1, 2013 USDA published the June 2013 TFP — $632 — a $36 decrease from the current maximum monthly benefit for a family of four under ARRA.  (See Table 1 for an estimate of the benefit cut by household size.) [6]   This significant benefit cut will likely cause hardship for many households.[7]   The total size of the cut will be approximately $5 billion in fiscal year 2014 and, based on the Congressional Budget Office’s May 2013 projections for food inflation in coming years, an additional $6 billion across fiscal years 2015 and 2016. 

Table 1
SNAP Cut by Household Size Beginning November 2013
  ARRA Maximum Benefits Through Oct. 2013 Maximum Benefits Beginning Nov. 2013 Monthly Cut Total Cut FY 2014
Household of 1 $200 $189 -$11 -$121
Household of 2 $367 $347 -$20 -$220
Household of 3 $526 $497 -$29 -$319
Household of 4 $668 $632 -$36 -$396
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, “SNAP – Fiscal Year 2014 Cost-of-Living Adjustments and ARRA Sunset Impact on Allotments,” August 1, 2013.
The cuts are especially painful in light of the inadequacy of existing benefit levels.  In a report issued by the Institute of Medicine and the National Research Council, nutrition experts identified several shortcomings with the current SNAP benefit allotment; noted that most household benefit levels are based on unrealistic assumptions about the cost of food, time preparation, and access to grocery stores; and recommended evaluating ways of changing the benefit calculation to better ensure that households have enough resources to purchase an adequate diet.[8]
SNAP has never experienced a reduction in benefit levels that affected all participants.[9]   There have been some cuts in specific states, but these cuts have not typically been as large or affected as many people as what will occur this November.[10]

Benefit Cuts Will Increase Hardship and Food Insecurity

These cuts will likely cause hardship for some SNAP participants, who will include 22 million children in 2014 (10 million of whom live in “deep poverty,” with family incomes below half of the poverty line) and 9 million people who are elderly or have a serious disability.  Cutting these households’ benefits will reduce their ability to purchase food.  This cut will be the equivalent of taking away 21 meals per month for a family of four, or 16 meals for a family of three, based on calculations using the $1.70 to $2 per meal provided for in the Thrifty Food Plan.  USDA research has found that the Recovery Act’s benefit boost cut the number of households in which one or more persons had to skip meals or otherwise eat less because they lacked money — what USDA calls “very low food security” — by about 500,000 households in 2009.[11]
More recent research finds that boosting SNAP benefits during the summer for households with school-aged children who don’t have access to USDA’s summer food program cut very low food security among these households by nearly 20 percent.[12]
Given this research and the growing awareness of the inadequacy of the current SNAP benefit allotments, we can reasonably assume that a reduction in SNAP benefit levels of this size will significantly increase the number of poor households that have difficulty affording adequate food this fall.

Preparing for the Benefit Cuts

Because this cut will affect all households that participate in SNAP and because of the size of the cut, states may wish to begin planning for how they will implement the reductions in November.  The primary considerations for such planning are:
  1. Informing SNAP participants, advocates, and service providers who work with SNAP participants and other key stakeholders about the scheduled benefit cut so that they can plan and prepare;
  2. Managing the influx of client inquiries and appeals in November related to the benefit reduction;
  3. Implementing the benefit reduction, i.e. staff training, programming, and other systems requirements; and
  4. Educating federal policymakers about the anticipated impacts of the cut in the state.
This paper focuses on items 1 and 2, which are primarily about engaging and informing stakeholders in developing a plan for the upcoming benefit cut.
As a first step, states may wish to work with local service providers, client advocate groups, and other stakeholders to inform them of the upcoming benefit reduction and to solicit their assistance in preparing for the cut.  States will want to ensure these groups are aware of the issue — particularly its non-discretionary nature and its timing.  Interested parties will likely include key state legislators, the retailer community, human services staff, advocates, legal aid groups, the emergency food network, the state’s SNAP electronic benefit transfer (EBT) vendor, other parts of state government that serve the same population (such as representatives from Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Medicaid, the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program and child care programs), and key municipal authorities.
Clients may turn to these entities for information about the cut as well as seek financial or other assistance from them when the SNAP cut takes effect.  Moreover, representatives from these organizations can help SNAP state agencies anticipate the consequences of such a large-scale benefit cut and take action to prepare.  For example, some clients may complain to their state legislators about the benefit reduction.  In different circumstances, state legislative staff might bring these complaints to the state agency and expect swift resolution.  Given the non-discretionary nature of this change, however, state legislative staff might be interested in working with the agency to consider an alternative response to constituent complaints such as providing constituents with information regarding other resources to meet their food needs. 
The earlier that states begin to engage and work with key stakeholders on the upcoming benefit cut, the more prepared organizations who work with SNAP clients will be for its impact.  Advance planning will also give some organizations the ability to document the impact of the cuts on clients with the goal of sharing that information with federal policymakers.

Informing SNAP Participants

The benefit cut in November will affect approximately 23 million low-income households.  It likely will cause hardship for many households, so SNAP participants will be better prepared for the change if they know about it in advance.  With clear information about the upcoming change, SNAP participants can assess and attempt to plan for the cut’s impact on their food and family budget.  Some may seek assistance from other programs or service providers.  Others may use this opportunity to ask the state agency to reevaluate their income and circumstances for SNAP in the hopes that they may qualify for additional assistance.  While these actions will not mitigate the full effects of the cuts, they may help some vulnerable individuals and families.  In addition, if state agencies can inform program participants about the change early, there is likely to be less confusion among participants.  Less confusion may reduce client inquires and appeal requests to the state agency.
Federal SNAP rules require state agencies to publicize changes that affect a significant portion of the caseload, known as a “mass change.”[13]   At a minimum, states must publicize mass changes through “the news media; posters in certification offices…or other sites frequented by certified households; or general notices mailed to households.”[14]
While a mailed notice to each affected household is not required under federal rules, states would be wise to consider such an approach.  General messaging about the benefit cut will be an important aspect of each state’s plan to get the word out about the upcoming change; many participants will want and seek out more detail about the nature of the cut and its impact on their household.  States may be able to avoid many of these inquiries by delivering detailed information about the change through a mailed notice.  Clients are less likely to call or visit the state SNAP agency to ask about the cut if they have been sent detailed information about the change.  Moreover, households have the right to appeal the benefit reduction.[15]   While this appeal will only be successful if the state applies the reduction incorrectly, states will have to process these appeal requests, which could drain administrative resources.  Many households are less likely to request a fair hearing on the benefit cut if they understand it is a change mandated by federal law and that the state has no discretion in the matter.
In addition to sending clients notices of the change, states may want to consider other means to convey that a significant change is coming that affects all households.  State agencies have many means of conveying information to SNAP households.  These include:
  • Traditional mail.  States may opt to send a special mass mailing, postcard mailing, or combine information about the November cut with another scheduled client mailing such as notices of eligibility, periodic reporting forms, and recertification applications.
  • In-person transactions.  Millions of households will come in contact with state human services agency staff in the next several months, prior to the benefit cut.  They may call in to report a change, visit a local office, or complete a telephone interview.  This is an important opportunity for the state to inform clients of the upcoming scheduled cut. 
  • Electronic communication.  Many states collect e-mail and client cell phone numbers and are able to communicate with clients electronically.  Some use social media such as Facebook and Twitter feeds to communicate with clients and stakeholders.
  • Telephone recordings.  States can play recorded messages about the change for individuals who are waiting to speak with a human services employee on the telephone.  Some states also have the ability to call clients with automated recorded calls.
  • Agency websites.  States can post alerts with time sensitive information on their websites.
  • Agency newsletters.
  • Flyers and posters in local offices.
  • Media.  Media outlets such as newspapers, television, and radio may be interested in covering this change as a news story. 
  • EBT receipts and customer service call centers.  Some states are able to print special messages on households’ receipts from EBT transactions.  And, some states may have the ability to work with their EBT vendor to play messages about the change for clients who are waiting to speak with a customer service representative.
State agencies can amplify their own messaging by coordinating their communication efforts with community-based organizations, retailers, and other organizations that work directly with low-income communities that participate in SNAP.  State agencies, local service providers, and client advocate groups each have extensive experience conveying important information to low-income communities and SNAP participants.  Working together, they can create materials that convey the key facts and anticipate likely questions from program participants.  Key messages that are important to consider are:
  • Federal law requires a cut in maximum SNAP benefits in November.  This change means that your household’s SNAP monthly allotment will also fall at that time.
  • The cut will be about $10 per person per month.  For example, the benefit cut to monthly benefits for a household of three will be $29.  For households that receive the $16 minimum benefit, the new minimum benefit level will be $15 per month. 
  • We know that shopping and eating with reduced benefits will be difficult, but this change is required by federal law and we cannot stop it. 
  • Where you can get more information:  The state agency will send you a notice with more details about this change and how it will impact your benefits in [insert month of notice].  You can also call [insert the state’s toll-free number] if you have questions.
In any effort, it will be important to ensure that the messages are accurate and that the organization conveying the information is prepared with how to handle questions, either by training its staff about the change or knowing where to refer clients who seek more information.

Preparing State Operations to Handle Client Questions

Even with a robust communications strategy, many households may not understand why their November SNAP amount is lower than the previous month.  These clients may visit or call their local SNAP office to find out why their benefits were cut and where they can get food to help fill the shortfall caused by the benefit cuts.  Others clients who do not understand that federal law mandated this change may request a fair hearing for the reduction.  State and local SNAP staff will need to be prepared for this influx of inquiries and the resulting workload.  It is important to note that this fall is already likely to be an extremely busy time for state health and human services agencies as they will begin taking applications for health coverage under the Affordable Care Act.
States will need to educate all of their staff who engage with program participants and the public, such as eligibility workers and call center staff, about the benefit reduction.  Staff will need information about the decrease, state plans for announcing it, and how to handle client inquiries about the reduction.  In some cases, clients may call the private vendor that provides customer service for the state’s SNAP debit card.  As noted above, states may wish to review their contracts with their EBT vendors to explore whether the vendor can provide information about the November reduction and what it might mean for SNAP households.
Part of staff training about the change could be to remind workers about the importance of making sure that participants are getting the full amount of benefits for which they qualify.  In particular, many households who are eligible for deductions that could lower their net income and result in increased benefits do not always take advantage of them.  This is particularly true of the excess medical and the child care deductions.  States could use this period leading up to November to place special emphasis on ensuring households are claiming all available deductions.  This is important at any time, but it could be particularly helpful now in reducing the hardship that results from the cut.

Conclusion

The upcoming cuts to SNAP benefits will be significant and will have far-reaching impacts on low-income individuals and families.  They will likely increase hardship for the more than 47 million Americans who rely upon SNAP to meet their basic nutritional needs.  With Congress unlikely to act to mitigate the cuts, states need to begin planning for the reduction to ensure that clients and the many organizations and SNAP stakeholders who work with them are aware of the upcoming change and its effects.
Table 2
The SNAP ARRA Termination: Estimated State-by-State Impact in Fiscal Year 2014
  Total SNAP Benefit Cut to State
(in millions of dollars, from November 2013
through September 2014)
Number of SNAP Recipients in FY 2014
(all of whom are impacted by the cut)
Total Share of Total State Population
Alabama -$98 910,000 19%
Alaska -$12 95,000 13%
Arizona -$109 1,101,000 17%
Arkansas -$52 501,000 17%
California -$457 4,168,000 11%
Colorado -$55 511,000 10%
Connecticut -$44 424,000 12%
Delaware -$16 154,000 17%
District of Columbia -$15 144,000 22%
Florida -$379 3,552,000 18%
Georgia -$210 1,947,000 19%
Hawaii -$33 190,000 13%
Idaho -$24 230,000 14%
Illinois -$220 2,031,000 16%
Indiana -$98 925,000 14%
Iowa -$43 421,000 13%
Kansas -$33 317,000 11%
Kentucky -$94 875,000 20%
Louisiana -$98 920,000 20%
Maine -$26 251,000 19%
Maryland -$82 774,000 13%
Massachusetts -$95 889,000 13%
Michigan -$183 1,775,000 18%
Minnesota -$55 556,000 10%
Mississippi -$70 664,000 22%
Missouri -$96 933,000 15%
Montana -$13 131,000 13%
Nebraska -$18 180,000 10%
Nevada -$37 359,000 13%
New Hampshire -$12 117,000 9%
New Jersey -$90 873,000 10%
New Mexico -$47 442,000 21%
New York -$332 3,185,000 16%
North Carolina -$166 1,708,000 17%
North Dakota -$6 57,000 8%
Ohio -$193 1,847,000 16%
Oklahoma -$66 615,000 16%
Oregon -$84 819,000 21%
Pennsylvania -$183 1,779,000 14%
Rhode Island -$20 181,000 17%
South Carolina -$93 875,000 18%
South Dakota -$11 104,000 12%
Tennessee -$141 1,345,000 20%
Texas -$411 3,997,000 15%
Utah -$26 253,000 9%
Vermont -$10 101,000 16%
Virginia -$99 941,000 11%
Washington -$114 1,113,000 16%
West Virginia -$36 350,000 19%
Wisconsin -$89 861,000 15%
Wyoming -$4 39,000 7%
Guam -$7 45,000 N/A
Virgin Islands -$4 27,000 N/A
Puerto Rico Block Grant  $0 N/A N/A
Total -$5,000 47,600,000 15%
Source: CBPP estimates based on USDA’s June 2013 Thrifty Food Plan, CBO May 2013 baseline, 2011 USDA data on SNAP Household Characteristics, recent USDA administrative data on the number of SNAP participants, and U.S. Census Bureau data on state populations.
Notes: The number of SNAP recipients shown is for a typical, or average month in fiscal year 2014.  In addition to the cuts shown in this table, an additional $6 billion in cuts are expected to occur in fiscal years 2015 and 2016 under CBO’s May 2013 food inflation projections.
End notes:
[1] Art Foley, a consultant to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, assisted with the preparation of this paper.
[2] The cut is larger than we estimated in the May 2013 version of this paper.  The earlier estimate (of about $20 to $25 a month for a family of 3) was based on the Congressional Budget Office food inflation forecast of 2.5 percent.  Food inflation turned out to be lower over the last year, at 0.7 percent, which results in a larger cut.
[3] SNAP benefits are based on the cost of the most economical U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) food plan (known as the Thrifty Food Plan) for a four-person family with a couple aged 19-50 years and two children aged 6-8 and 9-11 years.  The cost of the June plan is used for maximum benefits during the following fiscal year.  Maximum benefits for other household sizes are adjusted for economies of scale.
[4] USDA posts the Thrifty Food Plan costs each month at:  http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/USDAFoodCost-Home.htm.
[5] The TFP declined slightly in June 2009 in and June 2010 compared to the prior year (-0.8 percent in June 2009 and -0.1 percent in June 2010) before growing by 5.0 percent and 2.6 percent in the following two years and by 0.7 percent in the most recent year.
[6] On August 1, 2013, USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service published the SNAP maximum benefit levels for each household size to go into effect in November. Cost of living adjustments for certain other SNAP benefit rules will go into effect at the beginning of fiscal year 2014 in October. The USDA memo can be found here: http://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/government/cola.htm
[7] A small number of households with three or more members that receive small SNAP benefits will lose benefits altogether.
[8] IOM (Institute of Medicine) and NRC (National Research Council), 2013, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Examining the Evidence to Define Benefit Adequacy, The National Academy Press, http://www.iom.edu/Reports/2013/Supplemental-Nutrition-Assistance-Program-Examining-the-Evidence-to-Define-Benefit-Adequacy.aspx.
[9] The 1996 welfare reform law lowered the maximum benefit from 103 percent to 100 percent of the TFP and froze the level of the standard and shelter deductions, which could have resulted in a nationwide across-the-board benefits cut.  Because food inflation was almost 4 percent that year, the level of maximum benefits still rose slightly and SNAP recipients did not see a cut in their nominal benefits.  Benefits could have fallen in fiscal year 1993 because of a drop in food prices, but Congress intervened to hold benefits level at fiscal year 1992 levels.
[10] Annual cost of living adjustments to other SNAP program rules, such as income thresholds, standard deduction, and cap on the excess shelter deduction will occur on October 1, 2014.  These will be small because the inflation indices to which these levels are tied were also relatively low over the past year.  As a result, many households will see a small benefit increase in October (of $1 to $5), prior to the deeper cut in November.
[11] Mark Nord and Mark Prell.  “Food Security of SNAP Recipients Improved Following the 2009 Stimulus Package,” Amber Waves, 9(2), June 2011, p.6, http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/227714/foodsecuritysnap_1_.pdf.
[12] Evaluation of the Impact of Enhancement Demonstrations on Participation in the Summer Food Service Program (SFSP):  FY 2011; FNS, USDA, November 2012, http://www.fns.usda.gov/ora/menu/Published/CNP/FILES/SEBTC_Year1Findings.pdf.
[13] 7 C.F.R. 273.12(e).
[14] 7 C.F.R. 273.12(e)(ii).
[15] 7 C.F.R. § 273.12(e)(5).  Households contesting an improper computation of the benefit reduction can continue to receive benefits at the former level.  See 7 C.F.R. § 273.12(e)(6).