Syria Promise Since the outbreak of the Arab uprisings and a half years ago, has expanded the global jihadist movement and spread in a variety of new places all over the Arab world, most recently in Syria, Libya, Tunisia and Sinai. While these disorders surprised many in the region, but that the organization «Al-Qaeda» had been anticipating such results while standing formulated a strategic plan 20 years (2000-2020) had been exposed in 2005. The evolution of the scheme so far, according to the plan [certain], but it was because of the presence of foreign powers and structure of the efforts of more than jihadists themselves. As a result, the movement is well-positioned to take advantage of new developments.
In his book, "al-Zarqawi; second generation of the base," explains
Fouad Hussein Details Plan «Al-Qaeda» for 20 years, including seven
stages, constitutes the beginning of 2013, the fifth stage.
The following is a description of how it portrays the organization
«Al-Qaeda» - who leaked the plan to Hussein - the modus operandi of each
stage:
Phase I: "recovery," 2000-2003. The aim of the 9/11 attacks is to provoke the United States to declare war on the Islamic world, and thus "sober" Muslims. The organization «Al-Qaeda» also hopes that the attacks will help to spread his message to a global audience.When
this writer conducted field research in Tunisia last February, he heard
from members of the jihadi group "Ansar al-Sharia" repeat this feeling.
And one of them said to him, pointing to this period, "has become more educated, many in this area." He added, "Even if we lose [some] sympathizers, we got a new supporters."
Phase II: "Open Eyes" from 0.2003 to 2006. In
this period, he had hoped to organize «Al-Qaeda» transform itself from
one organization to a broader movement, as well as the deployment of its
base to other Arab countries. According to this plan will be the center of Iraq Jihad cadres to prepare the fields for the future.
There are indications that this phase also paid off. The "Tawhid and Jihad" organization became «Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia» (Iraq) in 2004. Two
years later, established a group of Yemeni prisoners fleeing
organization «al-Qaida in Yemen», which later became the organization
«Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula» when it merged with the Saudi branch
in 2009. In early 2007, she joined the jihadist
organization "Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat," which is based
in Algeria to the fold of the jihadists, too, vowing to "allegiance" to
Osama bin Laden and changed the name of the movement to organize
«Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb».
Phase III: "stand up and stand on its feet" from 0.2007 to 2010. This
stage - which was witness more of a focus on the countries of the
Levant and Syria in particular, but also included attacks on Israel,
Turkey and Jordan - were miserably. Some have launched
rockets at Israel, but did not cause significant damage, even with the
«Hamas» work severe repression against the jihadists in Gaza. In
Jordan, the Jordanian jihadist alienated the case and jailed many
senior members of the movement in the wake of the bombing at a wedding
in Amman in 2005. Meanwhile, it has been contained terrorist campaign supported by low-level against the Assad regime in Syria and defeat.
The fourth stage: "Recovery and owning the power to change"] 2010-2013. Predicted
organization «Al-Qaeda» that this time period is witnessing the fall of
the tyrant Arab regimes as well as the acts of cyberterrorism against
the U.S. economy.
In spite of the fact that the organization «Al-Qaeda» lucky as
possible, but it was also quite far-sighted with respect to the
standards of the underlying sustainability of the Arab regimes.
Jihadists did not play any role in the uprisings that toppled regimes
in Tunisia and Cairo, Sana'a and Tripoli, which led to the ongoing war
in Syria, however, the movement has been able to benefit significantly
from the unrest.
Through the program, "the call" in countries that opened their doors to
the jihadi groups, these movements - including new organizations known
as "Ansar al-Sharia" in North Africa - is able to disseminate its
message and expand their bases from being at the forefront of [jihadist
organizations to transformation] to social movements.
Jihadist movement has shown that it has also learned from its failures in Iraq. In war zones, such as Syria, have tried to rally support by providing social services.
As I have also tried to avoid alienating the Sunni population through
the use of excessive violence, and focus instead on the choice of goals
against the military and security forces against non-Sunni Muslims also.
While the global jihadist movement has stalled and delayed in phase
one, but it has opened a front in Syria in 2013, and got a logistics
base to facilitate its operations in the south of Turkey.
It has also established the presence of jihadist upward in the northern
Sinai for the extension of terrorism in Israel, is still organizing
«al-Qaida in Iraq» - resurgent - maintains close ties with the Salafists
in Jordan. Therefore, the movement as a whole girl herself well towards the next stages of the broader plan.
Phase V: ["declaration of statehood"] 2013-2016.
Hopes to organize «Al-Qaeda» the establishment of an Islamic state or
caliphate in the next three years, thanks to the decline of Western
influence in the Muslim world, in addition to the weakness of Israel.
Has already been diminished U.S. influence in the region and the West,
as evidenced by the inability of Washington recently to shape events in
Egypt and Syria.
However, the U.S. still maintains a significant military presence in
the region as well as maintaining its relations with Arab countries.
Because of the instability exists in all parts of the region, Israel
secured for itself a qualitative military superiority enjoyed by more
than before.
Phase VI: "confrontation" .2016 to 2020.
By this period, it is expected to organize «Al-Qaeda» all-out war with
the infidels, which will lead to access to the seventh and final stage -
"final victory" in 2020 - that would lead to the defeat of the infidels
and the success of the succession.
These
latter two phases seem Khialitan to some extent, because of the major
obstacles remaining in the path of the organization «Al-Qaeda» in the
coming period. First, at a time when the West is already
suffering from economic difficulties and influence shrink relatively,
but it does not face an existential crisis, as predicted organization
«Al-Qaeda». Israel and the other is not facing such a crisis. Second,
the record jihadists track record in the area of governance is weak,
especially when they start applying their interpretations narrow the
law; includes failure known as dramatically both Afghanistan and Iraq,
Somalia, Yemen, Mali, due to extreme brutality and seek to apply the
social norms that are more conservative to a large extent from those
between the local population. Therefore, it is likely that there will be a backlash against any new projects in Syria or anywhere else.
However,
the continued instability in the wider region means that it is likely
to continue the jihad movement - very skilled and learn from past
experiences - in search of sympathizers. It is not very
unreasonable that the jihadists achieve "final victory" and establish a
succession impose its control over the Muslim population uniformly. However, the organization will not disappear «Al-Qaeda» to exist any time soon. And
despite the fact that the final stages of its strategic plan is still
far-fetched, but the «Management» is a reality and is likely to continue
to survive in the coming decades.
Aaron j. Xylene is a Fellow Richard Burrow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
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