Ukraine on the brink
Events "hot February" 2014 is often compared with October 1993 in Moscow. HOWEVER, These two Events only on some external signs CAN BE Similar Considered. Firstly, twenty years ago, it WAS Limited to "A Small Civil War" in the center of the Russian Capital. Which Would BE serious Consequences All this May Lead subsequently, not Confrontation Grew. Moreover's, Just two months after the shooting of the Tanks on the White House Held Elections to the State Duma and the referendum on the new Basic Law, Which A Constitutional Crisis completed. And Allowing the main Opponents of the then Russian President Boris Yeltsin to Become A powerful Parliamentary factions and begin Drifting from the "Party of A new type" to the Left Party, Which recognizes the Realities of the Post-Soviet ( Market Economy, multiparty). Naturally, Promote reconciliation and Announced shortly after the Election amnesty for Participants in the October Performances and signing the document on Civil Concord and reconciliation.
It FOLLOWS, Secondly, All of the above Would not BE Possible if there WAS no Power in Moscow, Able to Take on the Burden of Responsibility to make tough Decisions and to act in Accordance with Them. In Ukraine Today to Talk About it is not Necessary. Confrontation is not confined to Kiev. And if at the Beginning of the 1990s in Russia Fought Supporters of Soviet Power and Identity, and ITS Opponents, Ready for A tough (and Costly in human terms) Transformation, in the neighboring Country are Fighting Forces (here He Ukrainian Paradox!) Consensus and unity Integrity of Their Country. Neither Yanukovych nor Those WHO are going to overthrow HIM, are not going to sacrifice the Ukrainian statehood in anyone's favor. And while there is A "battle for Kiev" Different Groups and interests Influence the question of Splitting the Country prematurely put on the Agenda. But there is A Real problem in Most of the Ukrainian State Institutions and ITS. To date, none of the PARTIES to the Conflict CAN not win, then to Promote pacification Society and end of the Chaos. There is A Crisis not only popular, But Also the Will and Responsibility.
For many years the pluralistic system of Ukraine Opposed the "authoritarian Russia" and Regarded as A great Success Story. HOWEVER, is despite the Fact That the Country Today is led by the Fourth President since Independence (But not the Fact That Will there soon the BE Fifth), the Country is Still Discussing ITS Existence in terms of Survival rather than development. For A Country Considered to BE Democratic, multi-Party system and have enough to Survive the Change of Supreme Power. We need to Build the Institutions of Government and INSTEAD klientell Identity and Self-Determination Itself is not in A positive sense, But "on the Contrary". Ukraine - not Russia. Who Could Doubt it? But it is not Also Poland, Romania and Hungary not. And so it Took Place, as A Country, Build A few interesting Tactical Schemes. Need to think About Strategy.
Means to Open A Violence That Ukraine, as A Country Doomed? Perhaps if the Situation Will Develop in the negative scenario, such A question May Arise in the actual Agenda. HOWEVER, there are Still Today (albeit Declining hour of hours) to the Possibility Overcome the Impasse. Much depends on the willingness of the warring PARTIES to Move away from Maximalist Demands and planks to start A conversation at Least to stop the Violence. Today it is - the main task. The Dispute About the form of Government CAN BE postponed until calm. Equally Important in Today's context and behavior of external players.
Just Remark Known Political Analyst and international Affairs Fyodor Lukyanov, the worst in the Current Situation Would it BE Conducting "the Struggle for Ukraine." Both Moscow and the West must Simply Recognize the scale of the Possible Consequences. The Country Has A Population of 45 million, Which borders with Russia and Several Countries of the EU and NATO, with ITS strategically Important access to the Black Sea in the Case of ITS Collapse Could Become A Second Balkans. And unlike the first Intervention in the Ukrainian Business Will have A much Higher price issue. It Bears Will Recall That 70% of the Entire Infrastructure is Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea. In this Situation, the Loser Will BE All the winners here is Extremely Difficult to Find.
No matter how evolved on Ukrainian History, it Will REMAIN Concurrent Requests and on the European and the Russian Vector. They Will BE inseparably and without Confusion. And in this context, the EU, US and Russia Should engage in dialogue over Ukraine. If you Succeed, it Would BE Productive to continue the discussion on European Security in the broadest sense of the word. And not for the sake of Public Relations, and for the Installation of Certain rules of the Game in Which the Zero-sum Game Would Cease to BE A Perceived as Major Achievement. Today, on Both Sides of the Atlantic, many eager to Talk About Overcoming the Spirit of the "cold War." Ukrainian Crisis - Tragic, But in the Current Conditions Necessary for the occasion Practical Realization of this Installation .
Markedonov, Associate Professor of Foreign Area Studies and Foreign Policy of the Russian State University for the Humanities