Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Obama's visit: Half of understanding on Iran and Syria at odds
Last Updated: Fri, 28 March to March 2014, 05: 11: AM
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The title of the visit of President Barack Obama to Riyadh today is to revive confidence and repair the American relationship - Saudi Arabia to consolidate again. Will not be «securitization» surface to hide the imbalance in the relationship over the past year worthwhile if the goal really create fixed rules of the relationship in the wake of vibration founded.
The stroke that hit the American relationship - Saudi Arabia has roots regional inevitable openness in that and get to know their causes and how to treat them. But there is also a decline in the side of a binary relationship requires a diagnosis of the damage and a description of her medicine. The visit itself is a testament to the American Correction leadership, Saudi Arabia and their determination to get to know what the other is touring in mind. It queries visit as much as it is to visit feelers to the extent any of the parties are willing to cope with the developments in the map of the Middle East and international relations, or separation around each. Iran, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Palestine will be present on the agenda of the talks, as well as the security system of the Gulf and the fight against Islamic extremism, terrorism, nuclear weapons, chemical and oil and gas. The review will not be enough, and full understandings are not on the horizon and realistic. But do not need to go out of this visit, a draft working paper and a road map for the American relationship - Saudi Arabia remoteness duo as regional dimensions. The more likely they will do due to the adoption of Washington and Riyadh need to each other in more than one file and path.
The most difficult decade lies at the intersection of the American relationship - the relationship with the Saudi American - Iranian Arjoha as Barack Obama. The dismantling of the contract requires a lot of reassurance from Saudi Arabia briefed on what is happening in the nuclear negotiations between the countries «5 +1» with Iran and find a place in any talks American - Iranian about Iran's regional role.
In the expanded American president to work to care for an interview with a Saudi - Iranian qualitative precisely with the forces of moderation inside Iran. These forces very careful on the solid relationship between them and Washington. According to the claim, not in the mind of regional hegemony and adopt practices «Revolutionary Guards» and «Qods Force» in the Arab countries. If it is difficult to talk openly about what the paradigm shift required by reassuring to Riyadh and other Arab capitals, in the possibility of Barack Obama find a back channel to talk to the American - Saudi - Iranian, also found the channel Oman confidential conversations American - Iranian.
Even then, as a lot of files at the regional intersects relationship Arabia - Iran, it is important for the American president to clarify his policies toward the intersection stations and take clear decisions are not irreversible.
The administration is determined to move to a nuclear deal with Iran by the month of July, fearing to miss the opportunity to understandings with the forces of moderation led by President Hassan Rohani. Calendar nuclear negotiations coincide with the implementation of Damascus pledges to get rid of the arsenal of chemical weapons and with its intention to conduct a presidential election that destroys the transitional political process sponsored talks «Geneva - 2» International.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards will not hamper the nuclear negotiations, because the lifting of sanctions on Iran is linked to the completion of those negotiations. The Revolutionary Guard wants that money and needed in order to implement his agenda in Syria in particular. He insists on not compromising the regime in Damascus due to Syria's central location on the Mediterranean and vitality to Mamrha «Hezbollah» in Lebanon. That any lifting of sanctions for Iran quickly located directly in the interest of the forces of extremism and not the forces of moderation. The Revolutionary Guard is practically ruling in Tehran.
Saudi officials will ask President Obama and his team how they intend to reconcile openness to Iran between moderation and extremism rigor with which Iran adheres to the goals of regional hegemony through Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, as well as in the Gulf region via Bahrain and the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.
American officials insist with Saudi officials on the need to give a real chance of Iranian moderation and seriousness because it is in everyone's interest. They will affirm that do not return for openness and a decline in the determination to reach understandings on a permanent nuclear issue. Ciecddon truce that Americans demand and consistent policy, because the United States does not want a military confrontation with Iran whatsoever.
A profound difference between the two positions in practice. Variyad opposes Iranian incursion in Iraq to the point out of the Arab house and put it under the dictation of Iran. Washington would respond that they left Iraq, nor would it have a degree of influence in the Arab or Persian affiliation.
Riyadh will insist that the Iranian role in Bahrain vandal goal but gorging Bahrain sedition charges as Vladimir Putin Crimea. Washington would respond to criticism of how the language of the government's performance in Manama toward the Shiite majority, stressing the need to preserve the right of equal citizenship for all.
Moagafihama would meet in the eastern region careful in Saudi Arabia and the rejection of any Iranian infiltration in order to sabotage it under any circumstances. Riyadh and Washington is agree on a categorical rejection of any attempts to destabilize the kingdom, regardless of whether the Iranian identity, or at the hands of Sunni extremism coming across «Al-Qaeda» and the like.
Mozkhma will be in Syrian affairs and its extension to Lebanon. There is a need to necessary decisions both Washington and Riyadh, and here the Iranian element interferes with the American decision par excellence.
Lebanese, expanded in the Obama administration to show serious attention before it is too late. Fight the forces of Sunni extremism and the forces of terror coming from the likes of «Daash» and «Front victory» must be an American decision and Saudis believe, regardless of the justifications reply to entry «Hezbollah» directly involved in the Syrian war. Support the Lebanese army, a common goal for the United States and Saudi Arabia, both of which provide it with support. It remains to Washington should be very firm with Tehran to hand responsibility for the neutralization of Lebanon and the implementation of the «Hezbollah» policy of self-distancing and not to disrupt the presidential elections or Tgaerha to serve the party and not the country.
As for Syria, the American president's visit to Saudi Arabia would be suitable for either a new quality resolutions to Washington or to another station in the reputation of retreat and cope with a fait accompli after another subordination to the dictates of the Iranian and Russian.
American officials suggest that the Obama administration has determined the shift in the policy of the Obama administration in the Syrian issue. Say they have a plan of action with the moderate opposition goal to enable virtually armed to be able to, first, of a change in the military equation about the forces of order, and secondly, the weakening of the forces of extremism and terrorism, which injected itself into the Syrian arena. Assert that they are in the midst of extending aid to the moderate opposition logistically and organizationally and strategically.
What would be taken up Obama's visit to Riyadh in the best first class in the Military Quality of the Syrian opposition. And find a political solution, which is an international meeting semi Today in trouble and everyone is aware of my work, inwardly, that the military path is the only answer to the failure of the political track.
The United States would not intervene militarily in Syria under any circumstances. This is almost a foregone conclusion. Obama's visit will not relive the details of what happened when the American president arrived to the eleventh hour and then retreat without telling his partners that the French or the Saudis for a military strike that threatened them. Everyone knows that he has contingency plans that do not need to send American troops to Syria, but no one trusts his intention to intervene militarily in practice and, at least until now.
What will touch the talks in Riyadh is why Washington has a strategy of counter-strategy of the Iranian-based support for a presidential election to ensure the survival of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power and topple the idea of the establishment of a transitional provision powers to the full text of the statement «Geneva - 1» The bookmark obvious Conference « Geneva - 2 ».
So far, the response from American officials to reject the legitimacy of these elections and rejected the legitimacy of the results. This means that if those elections were conducted conjoin to take off for legitimate Bashar al-Assad.
Saudi response would be, well, but this does not work because the election will lead to blow up the path to the Geneva negotiations, and because the word of legitimacy or illegitimacy previously uttered by the American president himself years ago, and here he is in office and Syria in the disaster and tragedy.
The need for a counter-strategy to strategy elections require serious American and Saudi alike. China, for example, must be part of the strategy of anti, so that Afteragaha for Russia in support of those elections will have a significant impact on the diplomatic map. The possibility of both Washington and Riyadh to work seriously to isolate Russia in the Syrian arena by insisting on China that the time has come to take a clear position about the commitments it made instead of hiding behind their solidarity with Russia and give leadership in the Syrian issue.
This in itself is not enough, therefore, must be issued for Obama's visit to Riyadh coherent plan of action and a clear road map in the Syrian issue. Part of that strategy is located in the anti-American talk with Tehran. If betting on the forces of moderation master of the arena, it does not negate the need to intervene with the claim of moderation forces of extremism that will benefit from openness in order to stop the march of disabled openness and the consequent lifting of sanctions. The means are available as tools.
The easiest contract in Obama's visit to Riyadh will be in the Egyptian issue, especially that Abdel Fattah al-Sisi became an official candidate for the presidency in Egypt. Obama administration corrected that issue and returned the Egyptian derailed in the Arab campaign. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have made it a key issue and acted with great determination and coherent strategy together with the United Arab Emirates. Egypt's demand to stop criminalizing «Muslim Brotherhood» and classified as a terrorist organization and execution of judgments in the hundreds, as it did recently. This requires assertive Saudis and Emiratis, especially that the two Egyptian state funded. But it is important in the context of the American relationship - Egyptian that the Obama administration «Kuat» derailed wrong in Egypt and began to understand the background of the UAE and Saudi attitudes toward the Egyptian Event. Began to listen to the importance of the determination to regain weight in the Arab regional balance of power, even if it is blessed.
Of course, the visit will address the issues of human rights and the need to develop in Saudi Arabia, including women's rights and freedom of expression.
Riyadh will confirm their readiness to activate the Arab initiative and implemented to the maximum extent, they are not particularly reassure Washington and Israel it is ready to Arab and Islamic countries to normalize relations with Israel and recognition If ended its occupation of the Palestinian territories.
Secondly, the talks will touch on in central Riyadh to consolidate American relationship - Saudi Arabia. Campaign in the American scene to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia always take turn to 9/11, any Saudi role as he sees Americans in the terrorism that has plagued America due to the involvement of 19 Saudis in terrorism. Saudi Arabia recent actions to criminalize citizens involved in terrorism globally did not make their way to after the American consciousness, or the popular media ... this visit should emerge after these procedures and their importance.
Finally, Barack Obama's visit to Saudi Arabia opportunity for the American president to restore some of the lost person at the Arab environment and perhaps the world public opinion. It is the day in the process of reformulating its reputation on the issue of the Ukrainian package with Russia. Today he demands heard about the re-formulation of the Syrian issue.