Weekly Report to the American research centers -06 July 2013

Editor: d. Munther Suleiman

Deputy Editor in Chief: Jafar Jafari

Center for American Studies and Arab - observatory intellectual / research

Washington - 06 July 2013

Introduction:

Topped the events of Egypt and oust President Mursi concerns of most of the research centers and the American media, in turn fell coverage of Syria and other issues, despite the festive atmosphere of Independence Day which falls on July 4 and extends airspace for several days in a row.

Historical developments and articulated in Egypt will be the focus of the analysis section and highlighting the American options available to deal or respond to them. The analysis goes on the conclusion that the president Obama has ينهج to a hostile approach to a state government in Egypt is not an American-sponsored, with keep the flow of financial aid door is open for fear of the repercussions of not visible on the future of the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel. »

Summary of studies and activities of research centers

(You'll notice that the reports of the study centers covering what was produced by the after Morsi dislocation)

Egypt:

Urged the Brookings Institution Brookings Institution United States to intensify its military presence in the region, in the wake of the Egyptian developments, «and create additional military bases .. Especially as they rely almost exclusively on aircraft carriers .. That you may need in the foreseeable confrontation with Iran. »Demand attributed to the exorbitant cost of keeping one aircraft carrier under service up to« about $ 12 billion, or about six times the cost of the facility is well fortified ground. »

He Council on Foreign Relations Council on Foreign Relations concern about who will succeed Morsi after his overthrow, stressing that «there is no political leader alternative» due to the lack of opposition forces for «mobilize and consolidate and develop leadership» her, which stimulates the desire of secular forces in the return to military rule Defiance «democracy Islamic. However, to say that Egypt is undergoing «reconcile the model of political Islam and the pattern of modern government. »And warned that he may not be the United States' disregard for Morsi desire to uphold the legitimacy of the office. »

Appealed Haritaj Heritage Foundation President Obama «Warning Morsi of repressive campaign has launched, especially as efforts focused on« expands the rules of its strength and consolidate its control over the Muslim Brotherhood organization, rather than to achieve the stated goals of the democratic revolution Egypt and revive the deteriorating economic conditions there. »The company explained that the United States should« allegations resistance Morsi illegal unrestricted powers (awarded for itself) and its refusal to finance his quest to concentrate power in his hands and the suppression of political freedoms. »

Council addressed the American Foreign Policy American Foreign Policy Council implications of shrinking public support for Mohamed Morsi which crystallize «movement against the result, but a far cry from autism .. However, the claim Mursi to resign, but will resort to mass civil disobedience style find what is supported in mobilizing the public confirm the seriousness of the threat. »

Washington Institute questioned Washington Institute Muslim Brotherhood organization's ability «save Morsi, especially since the intervention of state agencies opportunities to break-ins seem far-fetched, especially since« the threat of the armed forces of Morsi Bamhala the opportunity 48 hours .. Stimulated feelings of demonstrators lining the army on their side against the president-elect. »

To cover parallel, said the Institute appointed by the proliferation and expansion of the protests show «the depth of frustration among the various segments of the Egyptian people for the policies Morsi after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak ... especially for its decisions sworn in on October 22, which gave itself the right almost absolute in the exercise of presidential power .. »The Institute also pointed to the erosion of the powers of the president Morsi embodied in the actual« Interior Ministry rejected his demand to provide protection to the headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood president, who protesters burn. »

As the era of the American project American Enterprise Institute has dealt with the situation in Egypt from the perspective of Geo - strategic and its repercussions on the overall international situation. He said that «any new rise in the price of crude oil would have a temporary impact on the immediate term, probably. »As that exclusion of Mercy« translates as a significant setback for Hamas .. But it does not provide reassurance to Israel, in light of the escalation of violence in the Sinai Peninsula.

He Brookings Institution Brookings Institution believes that the 'monopoly and the monopoly of the Muslim Brotherhood to power is prompting the audience to demonstrate against the protesters freely elected government, as well as antagonizing the new authorities for judicial wire «and enter him in an open war to impose its control on it. »As« For the first time in the history of the country was brutally assaulted and led to the execution of four Egyptians follow the Shiite sect, 'and let' for Sunni extremists promoting hate speech against minorities and religious sects. »

Also addressed the Brookings Institution, in a parallel cover, put the Egyptian opposition are going without captain 'which indicates the absence of a Liberal candidate with a strong chance to assume the presidency in Egypt. However, the Institute said that the current course of the opposition puts «like playing with fire .. May lead to the imposition of military rule coming decade .. Similar eighties contract in Latin America is dominated by the military on a number of countries. The Institute warned sucked opposition forces to challenge «legitimacy that are not based on continuity to efficiency or performance exclusively, but it would be permissible to justify the revolution in anywhere, anytime, including a number of European democracies. »

The Brookings Institution warned of efforts to oust the Muslim Brotherhood, but stressed that «the right of social groups that support their ideology and their vision for the establishment of political parties express their demands. That any attempt to ban Islamic parties .. Will lead to a push not only members of the Muslim Brotherhood, but the majority of the Egyptian people .. Who believe that the policy should reflect the influence of Islam in society.

He said the Middle East Institute for Studies Middle East Institute to the troubles highlighted by the crisis, Egyptian President Obama, particularly «resolute opposition and strong for the return of the army to power in Egypt .. The Foundation has stood alongside military protesters and parallel to American targets, should the Obama administration review its position. IFC military experience proved its intention to relinquish power in favor of the civil forces. »

Lebanon

Carnegie Institute warned Carnegie Endowment of the repercussions of the Salafist forces defeat at the hands of the Lebanese army under the «paralyzed political system in Lebanon. Wi transmission of infection war in Syria would be a pour oil on the fire. »Institute urged foreign powers to« keep the current levels of support for the Lebanese army and developed. »

Iran

          Eating Studies Institute Military Institute for the Study of War transformations that have taken place on the operations of the Iranian Navy and taken new measures would «translation Iran's overall strategic ambitions. He explained that the promotion of formations and military exercises «indicates Iran's intention to develop and expand its marine operations to service its strategic objectives. »

The repercussions of domestic spying and eavesdropping

He expressed the American Enterprise Institute American Enterprise Institute for believed in bad estimate and the administration of President Obama to the issue of domestic spying and centered former contractor with the National Security Agency, Edward Snowden. And in the words of former U.S. Representative for International هئية, John Bolton, that the American people «repeatedly witnessed President Obama's failures in dealing with incidents of dissent which grants him say to what extent reached by President Obama of weakness and incompetence .. Puts (former President) Jimmy Carter in rank highest compared in terms of to softer dealing in matters of defense and foreign policy.

Analysis:

America and driving from behind

Egypt uprising highlights the cracks of U.S. policy and the limits of power

There is almost a consensus to look at the institutions of American decision-making about weakness and superficial extent of experience in the foreign policy of the U.S. administration, President Obama, without exception, comes from a political background modest find Amtdadaha in the march of the deceased father, who grew up in the confines of British colonialism to his native Kenya. Accordingly, this experience influenced the look young Barack Obama to the global situation from the perspective of a modest anti-colonialism, and grasp the extent of the influence of the great powers, especially the United States, in control of the capabilities and policies of other countries.

Against this background should be considered to the presidential campaign of Obama promoted by which to pursue a foreign policy that takes off from launching wars and ending the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, but has sought to make dye synergistic confirm اصطفافه alongside forces and oppressed layers in the world during his tours of Foreign multiple.

Perhaps the beginning of the atmosphere of 'Arab Spring' came in the service of political Obama's speech directed to the outside world. As singled out Egypt in the first foreign visits to confirm its position in the overall U.S. strategy, and support dropping Hosni Mubarak, as well as support, albeit twisted, the last military intervention against Morsi. Obama realized that the opportunity looming completion in foreign policy: to contribute to topple pro ally of the United States and support the aspirations of the Arab peoples without foot to take concrete steps, the culmination of a policy dubbed «the back of the leadership issues. »

Stakes of the United States in the region did not result in from knotted successes which reflected negatively on foreign policy, Obama has sided with the trend in public opinion against President Assad after the entry into force of patience cooperation of Syria in the region. As Libya's reign has descended into a quagmire of chaos and control of multiple militias Libyan weapons arsenal and exported to multiple destinations, and spread manifestations of fighting and violence and the abundance of arms in Mali. Turkey, which relied upon Obama to be the spearhead of the U.S. strategy in the region, has seen protests opposed to the ruling Justice and Development Party, were not taken into account, but the American-backed party incursion in denial popular movement. Taken public policy «leadership issues from behind has become similar to the policy of 'set aside. »

Egypt was the most prominent manifestation of the failure of U.S. policy, as the administration bet on what will replace the Mubarak regime will be acceptable to her, and proceeded to turn a blind eye and ignore the excesses of President Mursi and his team in the Muslim Brotherhood. Mursi appalling performance since receiving articulated Authority for incompetence to manage the economic file compressor on the situation, accompanied by contempt and disregard for the Muslim Brotherhood to secular parties and the Gaza women and Coptic Christians. Stocks also fell monetary reserves of the Egyptian treasury sharply from $ 36 billion to about $ 13 billion within two years of time, and evaporated revenues of the tourism sector, which is one of the most important revenue for the Egyptian economy.

Trod the American administration oriented ignore what is going on from the excesses and abuses by President Mursi and his Brotherhood, but reduced the U.S. Ambassador to Cairo would President Morsi violations, and required language condemning diluted to its policies and took off all her meetings with the various opposition forces. Ambassador Anne Patterson has become followers of Obama's policy which limits the tendency of popular hostility to the United States, including the presidential occupies the top of the pyramid, and thus underestimated the size and depth of the unity of the opposition to President Mursi and landed would. Also conveyed her, she expressed doubts about the possibility of the opposition forces to achieve its stated objectives, which was reflected in the policy of President Obama stunned and the inability to determine the position of an immediate usual.

The U.S. administration continues to fund the government of President Morsi, despite failures and failures in the management of the economic file. Has postponed the administration of President Obama's action legal restrictions imposed on military support to Egypt for reasons of civil rights violations, on May 10, 2013, and released whereby the amount of $ 1.3 billion of an item of aid without the slightest regard to the requirements of the law on the need to «support the Egyptian government's transition to get to civilian government, including holding free and fair elections and the adoption of policies to protect the right of expression and assembly and embrace the religion and the rule of law. »

Contrary to estimates by the American ambassador in Cairo, reports indicated U.S. intelligence agencies to the growing polarization, which may lead to a low-intensity civil war. Accordingly, President Obama to hold a telephone conversation with President Morsi late to tell him that «the United States is committed to the path of democratic transformation in Egypt nor stand by a particular party or group is specified. As Obama has repeatedly stressed that «democracy than there are elections .. But to ensure listen to the voices of all Egyptians and their representation in the government, including those protesters across the country »He also said an official statement released by the White House in this regard. President Obama urged President Morsi take measures that would reassure others to take their issues and their concerns into account, stressing that the current crisis should be addressed by political means.

What omitted White House statement explained that President Obama is not in Ward engage in actual events as was common during the beginning of the Arab Spring protests, but reiterated that the Egyptians and the only ones who will decide their fate and their future. That was a clear signal interpreted by President Morsi that the United States will not resort to take measures to remove him; also formed at the same time an indication of the Egyptian military establishment that international pressure on President Morsi to soften his positions is elusive.

Sought Mursi and his Brotherhood appease the armed forces, and was met with باستقالات successive ministers in his government, including telecommunications, tourism and judicial affairs and the environment, followed by the resignation of spokesmen Egyptian presidency, expressing their opposition to any concessions may be submitted by Mursi and his team that did not include amendments ministerial and replacement of the Attorney General's pro-Brothers Talaat Abdullah. Did not convey the ministers resigned their support for the early presidential elections.

Spent it and moved the armed forces

At this point in the Egyptian situation articular everyone wondered about the fact that the role of the U.S. administration against the background of the initiative and move the Egyptian armed forces. The American position stated does not support the movement of a military coup, in the traditional sense, which leads move the reins into the hands of the military establishment, especially since the U.S. ambassador in Cairo said «deep concern» for measures exclusion and isolation of President Morsi claim the armed forces «UA responsible to re-complete power to a civilian government elected at the earliest opportunity .. And to avoid any arbitrary measures for the arrest of President Mursi and his aides. As President Obama panel reviewing «repercussions in light of what it provides for private American law stop generous U.S. military aid in the event of the implementation of a military coup.

Given the limited options available to the U.S. administration, returned by the other to its policy which can be summarized b «leadership issues from the back,» we can say that it is unlikely to present President Obama to take specific action, especially since the administration appointed swung in their positions regarding the conflict in Syria.

The question remains lawmakers about what might be submitted by the United States in the event of the outbreak of the civil war is limited, especially after the establishment of a radical Islamist armed attack in the Sinai Peninsula in the early morning hours of Friday, July 5, which killed one Egyptian soldiers; previous the collapse of a few thousand militants of the Muslim Brotherhood to the Sinai during the height of the crisis with President Morsi. Added that «the masked group launched an attack on the town of El Arish Airport Mstkhaddh missiles and rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft, and also targeted a security forces camp in the Egyptian city of Rafah and several other military sites lasted for about four hours.

If the amount of such clashes to expand and develop into what could be up to a civil war in Egypt, it is unlikely to enter the United States with its weight as it did in the Libyan case, especially since the considerations Egyptian in the American strategy is more effective and presence of which in the case of Libya, which doubles the chances of complexities of U.S. support up to rebel groups with the cohesion and effectiveness of the armed forces, which to be reckoned with. But should also consider the issue of establishment of a no-fly zone for several reasons.

The sole option available to the United States is the financial pressure across the channel, with reference to support scheduled for the current fiscal year, 2013, has been cashed and extradition.

American influence in Egypt is based on two pillars in the long run: continued financial support and maintain the current level of relations with the leadership of the armed forces.

Obama may waving to halt financial support for the coming year, but the repercussions that will have negative effects on its ability to control the conduct of the situation in Egypt in particular is in desperate need to exercise influence in the region. The other option in front of him lies in the exploitation of the ongoing military contracts with Egypt, the official ones, which in the process of search. President Obama in the unenviable predicament, the above outlines the options available to him from the act.

Egyptian military establishment has consistently maintained the best relations with the United States, especially as it is based on American technology in their equipment and allow them the privileges of a field in the region. May be that the new government tend towards a military alternative source such as Russia or China, but that will take a few years and tens of billions of dollars to bring about the desired transformation. Egyptian ground forces has the largest armored force in the region contingent of American tanks Abrams - 1. Alternative sources of reinforcement will have repercussions on the effectiveness of the Egyptian forces in the foreseeable future, it is likely the survival of the Egyptian military forces keen to keep the military support but with the installation of a wide margin movement under the American umbrella.

Perhaps the most important factor in President Obama's options is the future of the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel that is the oldest on punishing the armed forces to halt military aid. Especially as the catalyst for the survival of President agreements lies in the continuation of financial support, and that Israel is not in Ward similar agreements with the Palestinian side. And as usual, will ask Israel is additional military aid from the United States in any step to come.

The United States may decide then a wait-and-see policy until the emergence of a new government, however, that this trend will not lead to the development of relations with the Egyptian people in general. As indicated logos scattered protests different hostile rooted and clear to President Obama's policy toward Egypt by wide circles of the Egyptian people.

U.S. asylum to stop or waving to halt the size of aid to Egypt will spur the government directed the military to restore some of the lost confidence in the Egyptian economy, followed by the return of foreign investment and stimulate the tourism sector.

Obama's foreign policy did not return it, but failing, as provided in support of the former President Mursi, thinking that the pattern of the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood is a feature of the era of the future deserve an important place in the foreign policy priorities in the region. Did not want to ratification, accompanied by his political team that Egyptian people Atnfd the proud to oust accomplishments Morsi, as he could not recognize the equality of the Egyptian people with his former boss Morsi.

Egyptian armed forces, Western passion and loyalty, has become in a position of responsibility and unpopular significantly. But can Obama and his political team to admit a mistake political outlook for the world flat, or seek to molding the Egyptian military establishment procedures to conform to his vision. Then it will be incumbent upon exposure of the armed forces in terms of hostile away from full cooperation with the new government, and fails to recognize the aspirations of the Egyptian people. Obama and American presidents who preceded him have never known about them daring to acknowledge the failure of their foreign policies.

Political considerations will not suddenly stop when the subjective desires of all parties, including President Obama, who will find plenty of ways to renew the cycle of contact with the new situation in Egypt. Existing relationship with the U.S. armed forces will lead to the growth of employment opportunities for American companies, which is always seeking to expand the scope of its work as soon as the security situation Asttab. Tourism sector also may see a rebound, and a slow pace in the beginning especially that it is the meat that bind human relationships to each other.

Wherever docked reactions the U.S. on what is happening in Egypt should not be a concern, especially given the continuity of President Obama and his political team to look at world events from the perspective of a narrow and superficial, but it fully reflects the limits of influence and power the U.S. before the rise of the forces of other international competition. The outcome of the matter is that President Obama will not resort to make fateful decisions contrary to the status quo, and will spend his «flavor, driving from behind. »

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Source: Center for American Studies and Arab - observatory intellectual / research