Fatwa "jihad" and "The Alchemist" and "Bouti assassination" ... results in the path of the Syrian crisis ... By: Iyad al-Jaafari

Articles and opinions

Line graph of the system in decline ... and increased motivation to intervene to change the landscape Three dramatic events by the Syrian scene ceremony recently, this article concludes that it in its entirety, regardless of their background, objectives and masterminds, which are in the decline in the power of the system, and growing indicators Turnha, of the need to change leadership. Fatwa "Jihad" ... zero ... and the actual outcome end apologetic The first of these events, fatwa "jihad" of the Council of Fatwa Top Syria, which included an invitation to join the army regulars as a chore legitimate, and the prohibition of fighting, and call upon all Muslims to join up with the system for the defense of Syria also as a chore legitimate, according to the content of the Council's statement said.   The fatwa contained above surprise at the level of the work methodology political, security and media and the military for the Syrian regime, latter for as long as I am proud of Baalmanath, and presented himself as a fortress for moderates and a haven for minorities, have long known about the marginalization of religion in political affairs, and the prohibition of rituals in the activities of the military establishment, as well as the rumors actions, to some extent approaching frequency, related to insulting the sanctities in the cellars of the security establishment.   As for the goals, they are non one of two things: · Either crowd slice religious of the year in Syria is behind the system, which is not very fulfilled by the fatwa of course, by virtue of controversy among the Sunni majority about the credibility of clerics close to the system, and the amount of objective fatwas and attitudes of religious and political, which can not change the map attitudes present in the Syrian street, every Syrian has taken a position, either to stand by the revolutionary movement already, or at least sympathy, or to stand by the system such that, or stand on the sidelines and conviction of the parties or Aatzalhma, which positions can not fatwa latter to change it On the contrary, are representing an embarrassment for supporters of the regime box that one of the main points of their defense him is علمانيته and caring for the interests of minorities ... that we do not know the location of this opinion? · Or create cover legal - legal to bring in fighters from other countries and backgrounds loyal to the regime, and thus not merely advisory opinion pursuant propaganda, and equivocation carry legitimize to justify the movements of public groups from neighboring countries fighting alongside the system, under the pretext of meeting the fatwa issued by the Council of Fatwa in Syria. As about the results and assess its position in the context of the development of events in the scene Syrian, they do not progress on the ground more than justify the activities already in place, or at the latest, perhaps increasing in intensity in the near future, but at the same time predicted weak system, in terms of interpretation of the as a sign of the latter's inability to mobilize the required amount of fighters behind him, and being forced to hire Arabs or foreigners to satisfy the need for him, which is confirmed low levels of legitimacy in the Syrian street. The use of chemical ... whatever regime killed actor The second of these events, the Declaration of the system from exposure Khan honey Brief area of Aleppo included chemical weapons, and demanding an international investigation in this regard. At first glance, some observers read so that the completion of the system, it strengthens Western fears of the occurrence of chemical weapons Syria or non-Syrian fighters in the hands of extremists in the country, which threatens Israel's security in the future.   But an analysis of more in-depth command calls warning the West, especially the United States of America, that the use of chemical weapons in Syria is a red line, which means that to use it, whatever the actor, I mean, get out of the crisis for the scope exact, which the West can accept it, thus turning this crisis to a direct threat to the security and interests of the West and its allies in the region, and proceeds will search for a settlement to the crisis by any means, turning the Syrian crisis, if it is proven the use of chemotherapy, a priority on the agenda of the United States of America, seeking the last to find solutions as soon as possible.   As the fate of President Bashar al-Assad highlighted the dilemmas of a peaceful solution between the regime and the opposition, and the issue was more complex points that hamper any efforts for a political settlement, the output lion from the scene Syria will become a priority for Western - American, in order to create a political settlement Links between the regime and the opposition set the scene Field in the country are without turning out the current mess all acceptable limits.   In the event of failure in such a settlement, the West, led by the United States, will accelerate the development of other scenarios for intervention into practice, especially the military intervention effective, directly or indirectly, the scenarios have become in recent days traded in abundance in the Western media.   If, on the use of the chemical in the scene Syrian increase the priority in the agendas of the West, whether the system is an actor, and in this case understood the West that the system came completely loose and become a party is not set in the regional equation must be removed or amended as soon as possible, or if the groups extreme are actors in this case understood the West that the inability of the system to resolve the scene field for him after more than two years began to threaten the security of neighboring countries, chiefly Israel directly, which means the need to accelerate intervention to resolve the scene in the fastest time, and through the use of factions opposition multiple, possibly by supporting some of them armed, to get rid of the "impotent" and rearrange the scene in the Syrian ensure discipline event within its borders.   Bouti's assassination ... a new stone in the pond disgruntled system failures The last of these events, it was horrible bombing in faith Mosque in Damascus, which killed a number of people, most notably Sheikh Buti, who represents assassinated point Allam in by enlisting the support of traditional religious segment of the system. And different stories about murder scene and the questions surrounding it, the proceeds, contrary to what many people think, represent a serious damage to the system.   In the case of the bombing of the management system to get rid of man according to the rumors of the indicators of a coup anticipated in his position, those leaks quickly Sttwatr more likely this issue reveals rougher serious SINS system, and make filtered and Bala on the system, and the mobilization of additional packing against him in the street religious in Syria. In the case of the bombing of the management system to get rid of the man as Pat "paper burned" is no longer viable after being drained until the end, was a move to get rid of it in order to exploit his death in appalling to send a message to the religious moderates special برجوازيات city, specifically Damascus, to enlist their support, and reduce the penetration of revolutionary movement in their midst and the tendency of some of them growing in favor of this movement, funding or activity, ... In this case seems ado raised on scene blasting a guarantor to create a state of balance between outweigh those who say that the responsibility of the system outweigh those who say that the responsibility of the revolution, which means lack of result, if did not outweigh those who say that the responsibility of the system, Vtger result Askah on the masterminds of the bombing.   In the case of the bombing of the measure points associated with the revolution, organization or individual, the message carried by the bombing in this case, that the system fails to secure the capital, Damascus, and his failure to secure a prominent clerics loyal to him, and questions about the amount of security breach achieved opponents of the regime in the ranks of the most powerful institutions "security", which will increase the Restless regime supporters and neutrals, of failure after failure, and failure after failure, and increases the desire for a change of scenery, instead of waiting for the deterioration continued by the management failed system to the current crisis.   Change the leadership of the system ... and means wanting to set the scene Summary of recent developments do not serve the system, but stresses that convinced top of the pyramid where that issue in Syria, the issue of "steadfastness and will" increase the deterioration of the scene, is not valid, and raise the rates of the chaos that proves the failure of his administration, and the need to change, because the experiences of last two years demonstrated that line graph of the system in a steady decline, albeit slowly, and that the continuation of this slow decline, proceeds further destruction of the structure of Syria human and material resources, and more of a threat to the entire region chaotic and out of the scene of the loose that it is impossible to adjust later, if too late.   As a result of previous readings, will accelerate the movement of the actors, internally, regionally and internationally, to change the Syrian scene, perhaps by changing the entire system in the extreme, or change the pyramid first of its leaders, in the barest minimum .... God knows.