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North
Korea’s government announced last week that since March 26 its missile
and artillery forces have been placed on the highest alert
status. Specifically, Nodong medium-range missiles and their mobile
launchers were spotted in satellite imagery, the officials said. There
are also indications North Korea will soon conduct a flight test of its
new KN-08 road-mobile ICBM or its intermediate-range Musudan mobile
missile. Test preparations had been detected in the past, the officials
said. A military provocation by North Korean forces against the South is
not expected while the current war games are underway in South Korea,
officials said. However, the situation remains dangerous as hostilities
could break out as a result of a miscalculation. South Korea’s
government has said it would respond to any North Korean military
provocation with force. The Chinese military activities near North Korea
were detected in Jilin Province, and intelligence reports from the area
on March 19 indicated that PLA forces were ordered to go to “Level One”
alert status, the highest level of readiness. Large groups of soldiers
were seen on the streets in Ji’an, a city in Jilin, amid reports that
the PLA had been ordered to combat readiness status. PLA heavy armored
vehicles, including tanks and armored personnel carriers, were reported
moving near the Yalu River that separates China from North Korea. The
troops were part of the 190th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, stationed in
Benxi, in Liaoning Province. The movements are believed to be related to
increased tensions in Korea. Additionally, PLA troops and military
vehicles were seen near Baishan, in Jilin province, around March
21. Low-flying PLA air force jets, believed to be fighters, also were
heard and seen at several border locations in China, including Yanji and
Yanbian in Jilin, Kuancheng, in Hebei province, and Dandong, in
Liaoning province. Chinese forces along the border responded to some
unknown event in North Korea near Siniju on March 21 that involved
Chinese fighter jets flying over the area. The officials said the
Chinese military activities appear to be based on concerns about a new
outbreak of conflict between North Korea and South Korea and the United
States.
China’s
military maintains a long-standing defense treaty with the North that
obligates China to defend North Korea in the event it is attacked. The
last time Chinese forces backed Pyongyang was during the Korean War when
tens of thousands of Chinese “volunteers” drove south into the
peninsula. Chinese military spokesmen frequently refer to their
relations with the Korean People’s Army, as the North Korean military is
called, as ties “as close as lips and teeth.” Other reports from China
indicate that the heightened tensions have led to a disruption of trade
between China and North Korea along the border between the two
countries. One sign of slowed commerce between China and North Korea was
a Chinese Internet report from a restaurant owner in Dandong, China, a
border city, who said commerce between the two countries was disrupted
following North Korea’s Feb. 12 underground nuclear test. Since that
time, it has been more difficult for the goods from North Korea to reach
China because the North Korean Customs Office closed frequently as a
result of increased Chinese inspections of North Korean goods. U.S.
officials and private analysts said the slowdown may be a sign of
Beijing’s displeasure at the North Korean nuclear test. China also held
up exports of crude oil to North Korea in February, according to customs
data reviewed by Reuters news agency. The agency said in areport that
it was the first time deliveries of oil were cut since early
2007. However, in a sign of continuing close relations, the government
of Jilin province announced March 27 that it plans to modernize railway
links to North Korea to bolster cross-border economic and trade
ties. The China Tumen-North Korea Rajin Railway and China Tumen-North
Korea Chongjin Railway will be upgraded under the Jilin government plan,
China’s official Global Times reported.
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