What is a Dossier?
Via the dossiers, we try to highlight the priorities of the US Government with regard to specific foreign policy policy issues. We provide statements by U.S. public officials, but also reports, hearings, and journal articles.
"Real democratic change in the Middle East and North Africa is in the national interest of the U.S."
Aligning Our Interests and Our Values: The President reaffirmed his commitment to a set of core principles that have guided the U.S. response to events in the Middle East and North Africa for the past six months. First, the United States opposes the use of violence and repression against the people of the region. Second, we support a set of universal rights including free speech; the freedom of peaceful assembly and association; equality for men and women under the rule of law; the right to practice your religion without fear of violence or discrimination; and the right to choose your own leaders through democratic elections. Third, we support political and economic change in the Middle East and North Africa that can meet the legitimate aspirations of the people throughout the region.
Our support for these principles is a top priority and central to the pursuit of other interests in the region. The U.S. will marshal all our diplomatic, economic, and strategic tools to support these principles. The status quo is not fair, nor stable. And it can no longer secure the core interests of the United States. Ultimately, our values and our interests will be better advanced by a region that is more democratic and prosperous.
The Broad Outlines of Middle East Peace: The President seeks to shape an environment in which negotiations can restart when the parties are ready. He intends to do this laying out principles on territorial borders and security.
On territory, the boundaries of Israel and the Palestinian state should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps. On security the Palestinian state must be non-militarized, and the full and phased withdrawal of Israeli forces would be geared to the ability of Palestinian security forces and other arrangements as agreed to prevent a resurgence of terrorism; stop the infiltration of weapons; and provide effective border security. The duration of this transition period must be agreed, and may vary for different areas like borders. But it must be sufficient to demonstrate the effectiveness and credibility of security arrangements. Once Palestinians can be confident in the outlines of their state, and Israelis are confident that the new Palestinian state will not imperil its security, the parties will be in a position to grapple with the core issues of refugees and Jerusalem.
Ultimately, it is up to Israelis and Palestinians to take action. No peace can be imposed upon them, nor can endless delay make the problem go away. But what America and the international community can do is state frankly what everyone knows: a lasting peace will involve two states for two peoples. Israel as a Jewish state and the homeland for the Jewish people, and the state of Palestine as the homeland for the Palestinian people; each state enjoying self-determination, mutual recognition, and peace.
“A Moment of Opportunity” in Middle East and North Africa (19-05-2011)
A strong and secure Israel is in the national security interest of the United States not simply because we share strategic interests, although we do both seek a region where families and children can live free from the threat of violence. It’s not simply because we face common dangers, although there can be no denying that terrorism and the spread of nuclear weapons are grave threats to both our nations.
America’s commitment to Israel’s security flows from a deeper place -- and that’s the values we share. President Obama address to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, May 21, 2011
U.S.-Israel Shared Goals
Secretary Clinton (July 16, 2012): "It is a chance to advance our shared goal of security, stability, peace, and democracy, along with prosperity for the millions of people in this region."more
Preventing a Nuclear-armed Iran
Secretary Clinton (July 16, 2012): "Iran’s leaders still have the opportunity to make the right decision. The choice is ultimately Iran’s. Our own choice is clear: We will use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon." more
Ongoing Violence in Syria
Ambassador Rice (July 19, 2012): "One can only hope that one day, before too many thousands more die, that Russia and China will stop protecting Assad and allow this Council to play its proper role at the center of the international response to the crisis in Syria." more
"Greatest single source of
instability in today's Middle East is not the demand for change. It is
the refusal to change." Secretary Clinton Keynote Speech at National Democratic Institute’s 2011 Democracy Awards, Nov. 7, 2011.
“So we face an historic
opportunity. We have embraced the chance to show that America values
the dignity of the street vendor in Tunisia more than the raw power of
the dictator. There must be no doubt that the United States of America
welcomes change that advances self-determination and opportunity. Yes,
there will be perils that accompany this moment of promise. But after
decades of accepting the world as it is in the region, we have a chance
to pursue the world as it should be." President Barack Obama, May 19, 2011
Aligning Our Interests and Our Values: The President reaffirmed his commitment to a set of core principles that have guided the U.S. response to events in the Middle East and North Africa for the past six months. First, the United States opposes the use of violence and repression against the people of the region. Second, we support a set of universal rights including free speech; the freedom of peaceful assembly and association; equality for men and women under the rule of law; the right to practice your religion without fear of violence or discrimination; and the right to choose your own leaders through democratic elections. Third, we support political and economic change in the Middle East and North Africa that can meet the legitimate aspirations of the people throughout the region.
Our support for these principles is a top priority and central to the pursuit of other interests in the region. The U.S. will marshal all our diplomatic, economic, and strategic tools to support these principles. The status quo is not fair, nor stable. And it can no longer secure the core interests of the United States. Ultimately, our values and our interests will be better advanced by a region that is more democratic and prosperous.
The Broad Outlines of Middle East Peace: The President seeks to shape an environment in which negotiations can restart when the parties are ready. He intends to do this laying out principles on territorial borders and security.
On territory, the boundaries of Israel and the Palestinian state should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps. On security the Palestinian state must be non-militarized, and the full and phased withdrawal of Israeli forces would be geared to the ability of Palestinian security forces and other arrangements as agreed to prevent a resurgence of terrorism; stop the infiltration of weapons; and provide effective border security. The duration of this transition period must be agreed, and may vary for different areas like borders. But it must be sufficient to demonstrate the effectiveness and credibility of security arrangements. Once Palestinians can be confident in the outlines of their state, and Israelis are confident that the new Palestinian state will not imperil its security, the parties will be in a position to grapple with the core issues of refugees and Jerusalem.
Ultimately, it is up to Israelis and Palestinians to take action. No peace can be imposed upon them, nor can endless delay make the problem go away. But what America and the international community can do is state frankly what everyone knows: a lasting peace will involve two states for two peoples. Israel as a Jewish state and the homeland for the Jewish people, and the state of Palestine as the homeland for the Palestinian people; each state enjoying self-determination, mutual recognition, and peace.
“A Moment of Opportunity” in Middle East and North Africa (19-05-2011)
A strong and secure Israel is in the national security interest of the United States not simply because we share strategic interests, although we do both seek a region where families and children can live free from the threat of violence. It’s not simply because we face common dangers, although there can be no denying that terrorism and the spread of nuclear weapons are grave threats to both our nations.
America’s commitment to Israel’s security flows from a deeper place -- and that’s the values we share. President Obama address to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, May 21, 2011
U.S.-Israel Shared Goals
Secretary Clinton (July 16, 2012): "It is a chance to advance our shared goal of security, stability, peace, and democracy, along with prosperity for the millions of people in this region."more
Preventing a Nuclear-armed Iran
Secretary Clinton (July 16, 2012): "Iran’s leaders still have the opportunity to make the right decision. The choice is ultimately Iran’s. Our own choice is clear: We will use all elements of American power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon." more
Ongoing Violence in Syria
Ambassador Rice (July 19, 2012): "One can only hope that one day, before too many thousands more die, that Russia and China will stop protecting Assad and allow this Council to play its proper role at the center of the international response to the crisis in Syria." more
Major US Government Statements
A select list of major statements with policy value.
Latest US Government Statements
The most recent statements in reverse chronological order.
Syria's Humanitarian Crisis Source: U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, March 19, 2013.
-03/05/13 Arab League Boycott of Israel Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-02/26/13 Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-12/06/12 Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-12/05/12 Syria's Chemical Weapons: Issues for Congress Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-12/06/12 Kuwait: Security, Reform, and U.S. Policy Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-11/07/12 Israel: Background and U.S. Relations Source: CRS Report for Congress.
Next Steps in Syria. Source: U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, August 1, 2012.
Reflections on the Revolution in Egypt, Part II. Source: U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, July 20, 2012.
-07/12/12 Armed Conflict in Syria: U.S. and International Response [670 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/29/12 Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy [477 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/21/12 Egypt: Transition under Military Rule [417 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/20/12 Kuwait: Security, Reform, and U.S. Policy [447 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/15/12 U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians [423 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/06/12 Qatar: Background and U.S. Relations [439 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-05/03/12 Jordan: Background and U.S. Relations [368 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-03/27/12 Israel: Possible Military Strike Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities [935 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-03/12/12 U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel [525 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-03/07/12 Change in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. Policy [342 Kb]
-03/05/13 Arab League Boycott of Israel Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-02/26/13 Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-12/06/12 Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-12/05/12 Syria's Chemical Weapons: Issues for Congress Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-12/06/12 Kuwait: Security, Reform, and U.S. Policy Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-11/07/12 Israel: Background and U.S. Relations Source: CRS Report for Congress.
Next Steps in Syria. Source: U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, August 1, 2012.
Reflections on the Revolution in Egypt, Part II. Source: U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, July 20, 2012.
-07/12/12 Armed Conflict in Syria: U.S. and International Response [670 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/29/12 Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy [477 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/21/12 Egypt: Transition under Military Rule [417 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/20/12 Kuwait: Security, Reform, and U.S. Policy [447 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/15/12 U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians [423 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-06/06/12 Qatar: Background and U.S. Relations [439 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-05/03/12 Jordan: Background and U.S. Relations [368 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-03/27/12 Israel: Possible Military Strike Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities [935 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-03/12/12 U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel [525 Kb] Source: CRS Report for Congress.
-03/07/12 Change in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. Policy [342 Kb]
Why Wait for Democracy? Larry Diamond, The Washington Quartely, Winter 2013, var. pp. "One
after another, arguments that non-Western countries are not 'ready'
for democracy have been upended by experience. When Arab societies rose
up and toppled four dictators during 2011—in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen,
and Libya—people around the world joined in the celebration. Yet soon
after the autocrats’ fall, a wave of apprehension washed over many in
the policy and intellectual elite in the United States, Europe, and the
Middle East itself. The warnings and reservations were variations on a
theme: Arabs are not ready for democracy. They have no experience with
it and don’t know how to make it work. Islam is inclined toward
violence, intolerance, and authoritarian values. People will vote
radical and Islamist parties into power, and the regimes that ultimately
emerge will be theocracies or autocracies, not democracies." READ MORE
The Obama approach to the Middle East: the end of America's moment? Fawaz A. Gerges, International Affairs, March 2013, pp. 299-323. "As Obama begins his second term, this article takes stock of his foreign policy approach towards the Middle East. It lays out four big arguments. First, Obama's foreign policy in the Middle East has demonstrated more continuity with the past than real change. While shifting his approach significantly from Bush's, Obama has adopted a centrist–realist approach towards the region, consistent with the dominant US foreign policy orientation. Second, from Palestinian–Israeli peace to Afghanistan, Obama's conduct testifies to the structural–institutional continuity of US foreign policy. More than in any other region in the world, presidential policy in the Middle East is hampered by institutional, bureaucratic and domestic politics. America's dysfunctional political culture has imposed severe constraints on Obama's ability to pursue an even-handed approach towards the enduring and preeminent Palestine question. Third, despite Obama's lofty rhetoric about a new start in relations between the United States and Muslim countries, the Middle East does not rank very high on his agenda. Putting America's fiscal house in order and renewing its long-term economic strength have been Obama's priorities. From the outset, Obama has been shifting US foreign policy priorities away from the Middle East to the Pacific and Asia where he and his aides believe that America's future lies. Finally, the article argues that the US finds itself in a similar position to that of Great Britain after the Second World War, at the beginning of the end of its hegemonic moment in the Middle East. The end of American hegemony in the region stems from internal and external causes, including an awakened public opinion in the Middle East, the emergence of geostrategic and geo-economic regional powers with assertive foreign policies, America's relative economic decline and the high costs of war, and the shift in US foreign policy priorities to the Asia–Pacific region." READ MORE
A Strategy for US Engagement in the Middle East: Contain Threats, Embrace Dignity. Michele Dunne and Barry Pavel, Atlantic Council Issue Brief, March 13, 2013, var. pages. "Michele Dunne, director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Barry Pavel, director of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security evaluate challenges and opportunities for US interests in President Barack Obama’s second term, in light of profound changes in the Middle East and North Africa. The authors outline specific policy recommendations to contain and eliminate threats in the region, and to support the empowerment of individuals, building democratic institutions, and prosperity. READ MORE
Syria's Crisis of Transition. Chester Crocker, The National Interest, March-April 2013, var. pp. "The Syrian conundrum exemplifies the policy challenges that arise when regimes face political crises and violent transitions under opposition pressures. Syria is not the first such case nor will it be the last. So it may be useful to recall how similar past scenarios have unfolded—and sometimes been managed—in order to draw lessons for Syria and future crises. One can imagine a range of outcomes in Syria. Most pose considerable risks for the United States, Europe, Russia and Syria’s immediate neighbors. But Syrians themselves are paying the price of this violent transition and ultimately are shaping its course. Still, what the United States does or decides not to do can make a significant difference while the clay of political change is still moist. So it is useful to look at some of the available tools of influence and the considerations that should guide those who use them." READ MORE
Syria's Hard Landing. Dr. Marc Lynch, CNAS Policy Brief, Feb. 22, 2013. var. pages. "As the conflict in Syria escalates into an even more brutal civil war, it not only continues to cause great human suffering, but it also threatens to undermine the stability of the country’s regional neighbors. In Syria’s Hard Landing, Dr. Marc Lynch, CNAS Non-Resident Senior Fellow and Associate Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University, argues that the international response to these developments has been manifestly inadequate. While he writes that the debate over Syria must shift to reflect new realities and that there are actions American policymakers can take in order to prepare for a political transition after Asad falls from power, he maintains that the United States should continue to resist direct intervention or directly arming rebels." READ MORE
Bombing the Syrian Reactor: The Untold Story. Elliott Abrams, Commentary, February 2013, pp.18-24. "The article discusses a 2007 Israeli attack against the alleged nuclear reactor al-Kibar in Syria, which was purportedly constructed with North Korean assistance. Topics include possible diplomatic resistance to Syria's alleged nuclear weapons research through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the United Nations (UN), U.S. military cooperation with Israel, and the opinions of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert." READ MORE
Islamists Aren't the Obstacle How to Build Democracy in Egypt and Tunisia Lindsay Benstead, Ellen M. Lust, Dhafer Malouche, Gamal Soltan, and Jakob Wichmann, Foreign Affairs, February 14, 2013, var. pages. "Skeptics about the prospects of democracy in the Middle East argue that the Arab Spring has turned into an Islamist winter. But as a new study shows, instead of fretting over Islamists, the international community would do better to help Egypt and Tunisia strengthen their political institutions and reform their economies." READ MORE
Tangled Web: The Syrian Civil War and Its Implications. Ted Galen Carpenter, Mediterranean Quarterly, Winter 2013, pp. 1-11. “Western news media outlets have paid considerable attention to the civil war in Syria, but much of the coverage is simplistic and melodramatic. Too many accounts portray the conflict as a Manichean struggle between the evil, brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad and noble freedom fighters seeking to create a new, democratic Syria. The reality is far more complex and murky. Syria’s turmoil has troubling, long-term implications not only for that country but for the Middle East as a whole, and even for the international system. The searing images of civilian casualties coming out of Syria have been hard to watch. Several thousand innocent people perished between the eruption of resistance to Assad’s regime in March 2011 and the beginning of 2013, with no end in sight. There is little doubt that government forces were responsible for the majority of deaths. The prospect that Assad might be overthrown is understandably appealing to Westerners from a moral standpoint, but the West needs to be fully aware of the potential for unintended, and possibly quite unpleasant, consequences.” READ MORE
The US and the Gulf States: Uncertain Partners in a Changing Region. ACUS, Feb. 7, 2013, var. pages. "Senior Fellow Richard LeBaron from the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, evaluates the relationship between the United States and the Gulf states as they face democratic transitions in the Arab world as well as security challenges in the Gulf." READ MORE
Egypt: Why Liberalism Still Matters. Michele Dunne, Tarek Radwan, Journal of Democracy, January 2013, pp. 86-100. "According to conventional Western wisdom, liberal ideas are unpopular among Egyptians, despite what some enthusiastic young people said in Tahrir Square in early 2011. Yet while it is true that social mores have become more conservative in Egypt in recent decades, it is not true that core liberal ideas are in retreat. On the contrary, the essentials of political liberalism—citizens’ rights, government accountability, the rule of law, limits on state power—have become so popular that the liberal ideological field has become crowded." READ MORE
Getting to Yes With Iran. Robert Jervis, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2013, pp.105-115. "The article looks at U.S. foreign policy toward Iran as of 2013, focusing on Iran's nuclear weapons development program. The author expresses the view that stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons represents a difficult challenge, and discusses the combination of threats and inducements, or coercive diplomacy, that he considers most likely to succeed. He looks at factors that affect the credibility of U.S. threats and promises in the eyes of Iranian leaders. Topics include initiating negotiations, Iran's uranium enrichment program, and historical precedents for the use of coercive diplomacy." READ MORE
Obama’s Second Term Middle East Policy: Will Words Become Actions? Michele Dunne, Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Winter 2013, pp. 119-122. "The Middle East’s problems are complex and even well-intentioned efforts to ameliorate them do not always pay off. Michele Dunne argues that in President Obama’s second term, however, there will be several opportunities to adjust the U.S. approach to the region and to implement proactive policies that advance American interests and regional stability." READ MORE
The End of the Age of Petraeus. Fred Kaplan, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2013, pp.75-90. "The United States' approach to counterinsurgency, championed by General David Petraeus, helped produce stunning results in parts of Iraq and Afghanistan. In retrospect, however, the fuss over the doctrine seems overblown. It achieved mere tactical successes and only in combination with other, non-military factors." READ MORE
The Danger of a Poly-Nuclear Mideast. Shmuel Bar, Policy Review, February 2013, var. pp. Iran is only the beginning of the nuclear problem. The likelihood that the current efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring a military nuclear capability may fail has raised debate in academic and strategic communities regarding the implications of a “poly-nuclear” Middle East, which may include after Iran states such as Saudi Arabia (under the current or a future more-jihadi-oriented regime), Turkey, Egypt (under the Muslim Brotherhood regime), Syria (or a successor state/states thereof), Iraq (or successor states) and Libya. Some respected strategic theorists regard the Cold War experience as highly relevant to such a scenario and point at the fears that permeated the western military establishments of a nuclear China and the fact that a nuclear Indian subcontinent did not result in nuclear war, despite mutual hostility and frequent outbreaks of crisis. Kenneth Waltz even suggests that the very possession of nuclear weapons tempers military adventurism and inculcates a degree of strategic responsibility commensurate with the grave consequences that would result from nuclear conflict. READ MORE
Is the New Middle East Stuck in Its Sectarian Past? The Unspoken Dimension of the “Arab Spring.” Yoel Guzansky, Benedetta Berti, Orbis, Winter 2013, var. pages. “This article focuses on the impact of the Arab Spring on pre-existing societal cleavages, specifically analyzing its impact on Sunni-Shiite relations. How have Sunni-Shiite relationships been reshaped by the ongoing social protests? Is there a rise in the inter-religious tensions among Sunni and Shiite communities across the region? And, if that is the case, what are the implications of this trend on both the region's potential for democratization, as well as on its overall stability and security?” READ MORE
Unrest in the Arab World: Will the Arab Spring lead to more change? Kenneth Jost, The CQ Researcher, February 1, 2013, pp. 105-132. "The wave of popular uprisings that toppled dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya is still roiling the Arab world, but other governments have held on by cracking down on protests or instituting modest reforms. Meanwhile, Syria is engulfed in a bloody civil war that many experts predict will force President Bashar Assad from office but leave the country devastated and politically unstable. Some experts say the events have transformed political attitudes in Arab nations. Others stress that a majority of those countries still have authoritarian regimes. The political dramas are playing out against the backdrop of pressing economic problems, including high unemployment among Arab youths. In addition, the growing power of Islamist parties and groups is raising concerns among advocates of secular government and creating risks of sectarian disputes among different Muslim sects." READ MORE
Israel and Hamas: Is War Imminent? Boaz Ganor, Orbis, Winter 2013, var. pages. "Inarguably, the Islamist revolutions in the Arab countries’ neighboring Israel, and the Muslim Brotherhood's rise to power in these countries, presents Israel with many, perhaps unprecedented, political and security challenges. However, in assessing the threat to its southern border, Israel must analyze in depth the intra- and extra-organizational influences on Hamas's motivation to attack, and formulate a responsible policy to ensure the safety of its citizens. Israel must use every means at its disposal to influence and pressure Hamas's leadership to choose responsibly, and avoid dangerous military “adventures.” READ MORE
The Mirage of the Arab Spring. Seth G. Jones, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2013, var. pages. “The Arab uprisings of 2011, once a great source of hope for democracy enthusiasts, have given way to sectarian clashes and political instability. The Middle East has not yet shed its authoritarian yoke, and the United States needs a policy that reflects that reality.” READ MORE
The Promise of the Arab Spring. Sheri Berman, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2013, var. pages. “It’s easy to be pessimistic about the Arab Spring, given the post-revolutionary turmoil the Middle East is now experiencing. But critics forget that it takes time for new democracies to transcend their authoritarian pasts. As the history of political development elsewhere shows, things gets better.” READ MORE
The Paradox of Islam’s Future. Raymond W. Baker, Political Science Quarterly, Winter 2012-2013, pp. 519-566. The author “argues that the Islamic mainstream has effectively adapted to the globalized world and will shape the future of Islam in ways open to principled accommodation with the West. He claims that mainstream assertiveness, unencumbered by Western interference, provides the most effective way to counter destructive radicalism.” READ MORE
The 2011 Protests: Were they about Democracy? Dawn Brancati, The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2013, pp. 25-35. “Why did so many protests occur in 2011, and in such unlikely places? Although the lack of democracy, foreign assistance, and technology may have aided the protests, statistical evidence indicates the downturn in the global economy played a much more significant role.” READ MORE
Russia, Syria and the Doctrine of Intervention. Samuel Charap, Survival, Feb/March 2013, pp. 35-41. "Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, there have been intermittent hopes that Moscow might play a constructive diplomatic role in resolving it. But the focus on Russia has been deeply misleading. Russia, for reasons that have little to do with Syria itself, was never going to be part of the solution to the crisis – at least on terms that the West and the Syrian opposition could accept. Further, Russia’s centrality to international diplomacy on this issue and its seeming obstinacy expose deep flaws in post-Cold War Western doctrine on international intervention. Russia’s centrality when it comes to Syria is more a function of those flaws than anything else." READ MORE
There Will Be No Islamist Revolution. Olivier Roy, Journal of Democracy, January 2012, pp. 14-19. “Apart from the rather crucial detail of what the “failure of political Islam” means, there is no misunderstanding between Hillel Fradkin and I, but rather a decisive difference in approach and perspective. Fradkin is concerned about what constitutes the essence of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) as an ideological movement, whereas I concentrate on how the Muslim Brothers, as political and social actors, are shaped by the political, social, and religious context in which they now find themselves.” READ MORE
Arab Democracy or Islamist Revolution? Hillel Fradkin, Journal of Democracy, January 2012, pp. 5-13. “Although Olivier Roy and others argue that current circumstances will push ascendant Islamist parties in a democratic direction, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood remains committed to the revolutionary goals that have animated it since its beginnings.” READ MORE
NATO's dealing with a different Gulf now. Jean Loup Samaan, NATO Review, December 2012, var. pages. "What does the Arab Spring mean for NATO? Jean Loup Samaan looks at whether the Alliance needs to change its approach to Arab countries post-Arab Spring, how these changes could look and how to overcome obstacles." READ MORE
Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution: Causes and Impact. Mohamed A. El-Khawas, Mediterranean Quarterly, Fall 2012, pp. 1-23. “Tunisians were the first in the region to oust a long-time dictator, one who had ruled the country for twenty-three years. It was a genuine popular revolution, started without a leader, and was nonpolitical, nonideological, and nonreligious. After toppling President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime, new political parties were established and free and fair multiparty elections were held, a giant step forward in the march toward democracy. The economy continues to be a deep source of discontent, however. Youth blame the government’s inaction for continued unemployment. The Ennahda-led coalition needs to get the right mix of resources to make progress in reducing unemployment. Tunisians cannot do it alone; external assistance is badly needed.” READ MORE
The Future of the Arab Spring: Best-Case Scenario, Worst-Case Scenario. Amir Taheri, American Foreign Policy Interests, November 1, 2012, pp. 302-308. “Over the past two years, a good chunk of the Arab world has witnessed dramatic changes that have inspired both hope and concern. The hope is that the nations of the Mideast would now be able to take the path to democratization. The concern is that they might be seduced by the radical Islamist discourse most pronounced in Iran and its regional allies. At the same time, the specter of sectarian war is looming large.” READ MORE
Iran, the US and Weapons of Mass Destruction. Hossein Mousavian, Survival, Fall 2012, pp. 183-202. "Serious efforts to achieve a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East would help Iran become more forthcoming in resolving questions about its own nuclear programme." READ MORE
Keeping Hamas and Hezbollah Out of a War with Iran. Rafael D. Frankel, The Washington Quarterly, Fall 2012, pp. 53-65. "Would an attack on Iran trigger a coordinated response from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas? The upheaval in the Arab world, including Syria, has reoriented regional geopolitics and presents an opportunity to Israel and the United States if they act quickly." READ MORE
The Arab Spring: Implications for Israeli Security. Jeffrey S. Morton and Nicole Shortt, Mediterranean Quarterly, Summer 2012, pp. 34-51. "The popular uprising that started in Tunisia in December 2010 quickly spread across the Arab world, culminating in a historic regional realignment with far-reaching implications. This essay details the implications of the Arab Spring for Israeli security. After highlighting the history of Israel’s defense strategy and reviewing the Arab Spring revolts, the authors find that the recent uprisings exacerbate several issues faced by Israel, including geopolitical relations with other countries in the region, energy issues, and growing threats presented by nonstate actors." READ MORE
Resilient Royals: How Arab Monarchies Hang On. Sean L. Yom, F. Gregory Gause III, Journal of Democracy, October 2012, var. pages. "The 'Arab Spring' has been very hard on autocratic presidents but so far has left the Arab world’s monarchies intact. How and why have Arab royals been able to resist the tide of protest?" READ MORE
New Findings on Arabs and Democracy. Mark Tessler, Amaney Jamal, Michael Robbins, Journal of Democracy, October 2012, pp. 89-103. "Examined with data from the first and second wave of Arab Barometer surveys are support for democracy, understandings of democracy, desires for reform, values associated with a democratic political culture, views about the political role of Islam, and the relationship between support for political Islam and the embrace of democratic values. Broad continuing trends include strong support for democracy, understandings of democracy that emphasize economic considerations, and a division of opinion about Islam’s political role. Findings from surveys in Egypt and Tunisia in 2011 are discussed in greater detail in relation to post–Arab Spring developments in the two countries." READ MORE
Supplement: TesslerTables-23-4.pdf
The Future of the City : Religious Fundamentalisms in the City: Reflections on the Arab Spring. Nezar AlSayyad, Mejgan Massoumi, Journal of International Affairs, Spring/Summer2012, pp. 31-42. "Around the world, we are witnessing new forms of organization, grassroots mobilization, activism and popular uprisings, all seeking democratic change and social justice. These events evoke both optimism and pessimism about our abilities to predict the future of cities in today’s Global South. Confronted by a growing landscape of poverty, rising inequality in the global economy and acute socio-spatial polarization, we must ask what accounts for these new patterns. Does the reasoning apply equally to cities worldwide or does it exist only within the context of specific urban geographies? Perhaps the most recent and dramatic transformation within the global urban landscape is the Arab Spring. As people in various parts of the Arab world embark on their quest for self-governance, there is no telling where this great experiment will lead. Based on current indications, religion will play a decisive role in shaping the futures of these nations, and particularly their cities. Our aim in this article is to explore the urban processes by which religious movements transform into fundamentalist ones, and how that process may reshape cities." READ MORE
The Arab Spring: Should Turkey Coordinate Its Foreign Policy with the European Union? Aylin Unver Noi, Mediterranean Quarterly, Summer 2012, pp. 63-81. “In this article, Turkey’s and the European Union’s foreign policy approaches to the Middle East and North Africa region are analyzed by focusing on ‘normative power’ and ‘soft power’ concepts, the historical relations among the countries of the region, and the projects developed by the EU and Turkey. The Arab Spring and its repercussions on the EU’s and Turkey’s foreign policy approaches to the region, along with a brief historical background of the Turkey-EU relationship, are evaluated in order to determine whether Turkey should coordinate its foreign policy with the EU.” READ MORE
The Reform of the King. James Traub, Foreign Policy, November 2012, var. pages. “Morocco's mysterious young monarch is promising a "third path" between democracy and tyranny. Is it a model for the Arab world -- or a myth?” READ MORE
Revolution or Coup? Egypt's Fraught Transition. Ewan Stein, Survival, August-September 2012, pp. 45-66. "In retrospect, the January 2011 revolution in Egypt appears to have amounted to an intra-regime coup, with the military faction prevailing over a rival business faction. The full story is more complex." READ MORE
Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? Stephen Biddle, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Jacob N. Shapiro, International Security, Summer 2012, pp. 7-40. "Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007? Many policymakers and scholars credit the 'surge,' or the program of U.S. reinforcements and doctrinal changes that began in January 2007. Others cite the voluntary insurgent stand-downs of the Sunni Awakening or say that the violence had simply run its course with the end of a wave of sectarian cleansing; still others credit an interaction between the surge and the Awakening. The difference matters for policy and scholarship, yet this debate has not moved from hypothesis to test." READ MORE
Syria's Torment. Christopher Phillips, Survival, August-September 2012, pp. 67-82. "While there is a sliver of hope that a negotiated solution in Syria can be found, the Assad regime seems willing to destroy the country rather than give up power. The future looks bleak." READ MORE
The Jihad Paradox: Pakistan and Islamist Militancy in South Asia. S. Paul Kapur, Sumit Ganguly, International Security, Summer 2012, pp. 111-141. “Islamist militants based in Pakistan pose a major threat to regional and international security. Although this problem has only recently received widespread attention, Pakistan has long used militants as strategic tools to compensate for its severe political and material weakness. This use of Islamist militancy has constituted nothing less than a central component of Pakistani grand strategy; supporting jihad has been one of the principal means by which the Pakistani state has sought to produce security for itself. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the strategy has not been wholly disastrous. Rather, it has achieved important domestic and international successes. Recently, however, Pakistan has begun to suffer from a “jihad paradox”: the very conditions that previously made Pakistan's militant policy useful now make it extremely dangerous. Thus, despite its past benefits, the strategy has outlived its utility, and Pakistan will have to abandon it to avoid catastrophe. Other weak states, which may also be tempted to use nonstate actors as strategic tools, should take the Pakistani case as a cautionary lesson.” READ MORE
The Transformation of the Arab World. Olivier Roy, Journal of Democracy, July 2012, pp. 5-18. "The electoral triumph of Islamist parties has dampened the enthusiasm of democrats for the 'Arab Spring.' Was the Arab Middle East hopelessly trapped, with no better choices than 'secular' dictatorship or 'Islamic' totalitarianism? The answer to that last question is no. Something irreversible did happen in the Arab Spring. Whatever ups and downs may follow, we are witnessing the beginning of a process by which democratization is becoming rooted in Arab societies." READ MORE
Israel’s National Security Amidst Unrest in the Arab World. Ephraim Inbar, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2012, pp. 59-73. "Despite all the optimism, the Arab uprisings have emphasized the shifting regional balance of power toward Iran and Turkey, not Israel, and the decline of U.S. influence. Israel now faces greater regional isolation, terror, threats to the Eastern Mediterranean sea lanes and energy resources, and the prospects of a nuclear Iran." READ MORE
Private Foreign-Affiliated Universities, the State, and Soft Power: The American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo. Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Foreign Policy Analysis, July 2012, pp. 293–311. "The USA has pursued national soft power through the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo since the 1950s. University soft power has been furthered by US government financial assistance to academic excellence, while too close association with the US government has threatened university soft power. The universities have contributed to the national soft power of the USA concerning milieu goals of attraction to education, language, and liberal norms among elites. The universities have not contributed to national soft power regarding the acceptance of unpopular US foreign policies in the Middle East, which was also not a university or US government goal." READ MORE
The Rise of Settler Terrorism. Daniel Byman and Natan Sachs, Foreign Affairs, Sep/October 2012, pp. 73-86. "Israeli authorities in the West Bank have long worried about stopping Palestinian terrorism. Now, they need to add a new item to the agenda: stopping radical Jewish settlers who have begun attacking innocent Palestinians and Israeli soldiers alike. Jerusalem has to the stop the violence, and Washington should help." READ MORE
Islamic Sectarianism: Can Sunni-Shiite hostilities be resolved? Leda Hartman, The CQ Researcher, August 7, 2012, pp. 353-376. "Sectarian rifts are almost as old as Islam itself. They surfaced in 632, shortly after the death of the Prophet Muhammad, when Muslims disagreed over who should succeed him. Although the original sectarian split was violent, Islam's two major branches — Shiism and Sunnism — have co-existed peacefully more often than not over the centuries. But recently, sectarian tensions once again have erupted into full-scale violence in the wake of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and last year's Arab Spring democracy movement. The volatile situation is not just about theology. Competition for power and privilege intensifies the hostility and distrust. In postwar Iraq, sectarian attacks killed 325 people in July, the highest monthly toll since August 2010. Currently, the epicenter of the sectarian crisis is Syria, where the Sunni opposition is battling the Shiite Alawite regime of Bashar Assad. Experts fear the violence could engulf significant parts of the Middle East. Meanwhile, other countries have lined up on either side of the fight, with Iran, Russia and China supporting the Syrian regime and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Gulf States and the West supporting the rebels. READ MORE
The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime Is Likely to Survive to 2013. Joshua Landis, Middle East Policy, Spring 2012, pp. 72–84. “Will President Bashar al-Asad make it to 2013? Chances are he will. Despite his regime's rapid loss of legit-imacy, its growing isolation and tanking economy, no countervailing force has yet emerged that can take it down. Four elements are important in assessing the regime's chances of surviving to 2013: its own strengths, the opposition's weaknesses, the c”ances of foreign intervention, and the impact of sanctions and economic decline." READ MORE
Radicals Rising. Who are Egypt’s Hard-line Islamists and What Do They Want? Wendell Steavenson, The New Yorker, April 30, 2012, var. pages. “Among the Islamists, the most powerful entity is still the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party, which, with forty-two per cent of the seats, is by far the largest party in parliament. Its electoral success was no surprise. The success of the less well organized, more extremist Nour Party, however, surprised everyone.” READ MORE
Egypt in the Moment. Jeffrey Bartholet, National Geographic, May 2012, var. pages. “In the wake of the Arab Spring, Egypt is full of unprecedented hope--and gnawing fear, writes Jeffrey Bartholet for National Geographic.” READ MORE
Political Rights, Development, and Corruption in the Balkan and Arab Mediterranean Countries. Petros Sioussiouras and Ioannis Vavouras, Mediterranean Quarterly, Winter 2012, pp. 89-103. “This essay provides an account of the phenomenon of corruption in the Balkan and Arab countries of the Mediterranean. The analysis focuses on the effects that the political system—approached through the lens of political rights—and the level of economic development have on corruption. These factors are of critical importance for analyzing the scale of corruption in the region and should form the core of any anticorruption strategies.” READ MORE
Do the Post-Communist Transitions Offer Useful Lessons for the Arab Uprisings? Adrian A. Basora, Orbis, Spring 2012, pp. 278-288. “In January 2011, when the Arab protest movements were just beginning in Tunisia and Egypt, few experts predicted the speed and extent of their spread. Fewer still suggested that there were significant analogies to the wave of post-communist revolutions that swept through Europe and Eurasia starting in 1989. However, such comparisons have become more frequent as the uprisings have continued. This article examines whether the current uprisings and political ferment in the Arab world have enough in common with the transitions that began two decades ago in Eastern Europe to provide useful analytical and policy comparisons.” READ MORE
The Year of the Arab Uprisings. Arch Puddington, Journal of Democracy, April 2012, pp. 74-88. “Despite improvements, however, Burma, Egypt, and Libya remained in the Not Free category. [...]while the Middle East experienced the most significant improvements, it also registered the most declines, with a list of worsening countries that includes Bahrain, Iran, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. In far too many parts of the world, these qualities proved to be in short supply during 2011. [...]in addition to singling out the fullfledged authoritarians for special attention, it is imperative to shine the spotlight on leaders who, having come to power through legitimate democratic means, have set about systematically undermining the aspects of freedom that they find inconvenient.” READ MORE
The Obama approach to the Middle East: the end of America's moment? Fawaz A. Gerges, International Affairs, March 2013, pp. 299-323. "As Obama begins his second term, this article takes stock of his foreign policy approach towards the Middle East. It lays out four big arguments. First, Obama's foreign policy in the Middle East has demonstrated more continuity with the past than real change. While shifting his approach significantly from Bush's, Obama has adopted a centrist–realist approach towards the region, consistent with the dominant US foreign policy orientation. Second, from Palestinian–Israeli peace to Afghanistan, Obama's conduct testifies to the structural–institutional continuity of US foreign policy. More than in any other region in the world, presidential policy in the Middle East is hampered by institutional, bureaucratic and domestic politics. America's dysfunctional political culture has imposed severe constraints on Obama's ability to pursue an even-handed approach towards the enduring and preeminent Palestine question. Third, despite Obama's lofty rhetoric about a new start in relations between the United States and Muslim countries, the Middle East does not rank very high on his agenda. Putting America's fiscal house in order and renewing its long-term economic strength have been Obama's priorities. From the outset, Obama has been shifting US foreign policy priorities away from the Middle East to the Pacific and Asia where he and his aides believe that America's future lies. Finally, the article argues that the US finds itself in a similar position to that of Great Britain after the Second World War, at the beginning of the end of its hegemonic moment in the Middle East. The end of American hegemony in the region stems from internal and external causes, including an awakened public opinion in the Middle East, the emergence of geostrategic and geo-economic regional powers with assertive foreign policies, America's relative economic decline and the high costs of war, and the shift in US foreign policy priorities to the Asia–Pacific region." READ MORE
A Strategy for US Engagement in the Middle East: Contain Threats, Embrace Dignity. Michele Dunne and Barry Pavel, Atlantic Council Issue Brief, March 13, 2013, var. pages. "Michele Dunne, director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Barry Pavel, director of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security evaluate challenges and opportunities for US interests in President Barack Obama’s second term, in light of profound changes in the Middle East and North Africa. The authors outline specific policy recommendations to contain and eliminate threats in the region, and to support the empowerment of individuals, building democratic institutions, and prosperity. READ MORE
Syria's Crisis of Transition. Chester Crocker, The National Interest, March-April 2013, var. pp. "The Syrian conundrum exemplifies the policy challenges that arise when regimes face political crises and violent transitions under opposition pressures. Syria is not the first such case nor will it be the last. So it may be useful to recall how similar past scenarios have unfolded—and sometimes been managed—in order to draw lessons for Syria and future crises. One can imagine a range of outcomes in Syria. Most pose considerable risks for the United States, Europe, Russia and Syria’s immediate neighbors. But Syrians themselves are paying the price of this violent transition and ultimately are shaping its course. Still, what the United States does or decides not to do can make a significant difference while the clay of political change is still moist. So it is useful to look at some of the available tools of influence and the considerations that should guide those who use them." READ MORE
Syria's Hard Landing. Dr. Marc Lynch, CNAS Policy Brief, Feb. 22, 2013. var. pages. "As the conflict in Syria escalates into an even more brutal civil war, it not only continues to cause great human suffering, but it also threatens to undermine the stability of the country’s regional neighbors. In Syria’s Hard Landing, Dr. Marc Lynch, CNAS Non-Resident Senior Fellow and Associate Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University, argues that the international response to these developments has been manifestly inadequate. While he writes that the debate over Syria must shift to reflect new realities and that there are actions American policymakers can take in order to prepare for a political transition after Asad falls from power, he maintains that the United States should continue to resist direct intervention or directly arming rebels." READ MORE
Bombing the Syrian Reactor: The Untold Story. Elliott Abrams, Commentary, February 2013, pp.18-24. "The article discusses a 2007 Israeli attack against the alleged nuclear reactor al-Kibar in Syria, which was purportedly constructed with North Korean assistance. Topics include possible diplomatic resistance to Syria's alleged nuclear weapons research through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the United Nations (UN), U.S. military cooperation with Israel, and the opinions of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert." READ MORE
Islamists Aren't the Obstacle How to Build Democracy in Egypt and Tunisia Lindsay Benstead, Ellen M. Lust, Dhafer Malouche, Gamal Soltan, and Jakob Wichmann, Foreign Affairs, February 14, 2013, var. pages. "Skeptics about the prospects of democracy in the Middle East argue that the Arab Spring has turned into an Islamist winter. But as a new study shows, instead of fretting over Islamists, the international community would do better to help Egypt and Tunisia strengthen their political institutions and reform their economies." READ MORE
Tangled Web: The Syrian Civil War and Its Implications. Ted Galen Carpenter, Mediterranean Quarterly, Winter 2013, pp. 1-11. “Western news media outlets have paid considerable attention to the civil war in Syria, but much of the coverage is simplistic and melodramatic. Too many accounts portray the conflict as a Manichean struggle between the evil, brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad and noble freedom fighters seeking to create a new, democratic Syria. The reality is far more complex and murky. Syria’s turmoil has troubling, long-term implications not only for that country but for the Middle East as a whole, and even for the international system. The searing images of civilian casualties coming out of Syria have been hard to watch. Several thousand innocent people perished between the eruption of resistance to Assad’s regime in March 2011 and the beginning of 2013, with no end in sight. There is little doubt that government forces were responsible for the majority of deaths. The prospect that Assad might be overthrown is understandably appealing to Westerners from a moral standpoint, but the West needs to be fully aware of the potential for unintended, and possibly quite unpleasant, consequences.” READ MORE
The US and the Gulf States: Uncertain Partners in a Changing Region. ACUS, Feb. 7, 2013, var. pages. "Senior Fellow Richard LeBaron from the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, evaluates the relationship between the United States and the Gulf states as they face democratic transitions in the Arab world as well as security challenges in the Gulf." READ MORE
Egypt: Why Liberalism Still Matters. Michele Dunne, Tarek Radwan, Journal of Democracy, January 2013, pp. 86-100. "According to conventional Western wisdom, liberal ideas are unpopular among Egyptians, despite what some enthusiastic young people said in Tahrir Square in early 2011. Yet while it is true that social mores have become more conservative in Egypt in recent decades, it is not true that core liberal ideas are in retreat. On the contrary, the essentials of political liberalism—citizens’ rights, government accountability, the rule of law, limits on state power—have become so popular that the liberal ideological field has become crowded." READ MORE
Getting to Yes With Iran. Robert Jervis, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2013, pp.105-115. "The article looks at U.S. foreign policy toward Iran as of 2013, focusing on Iran's nuclear weapons development program. The author expresses the view that stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons represents a difficult challenge, and discusses the combination of threats and inducements, or coercive diplomacy, that he considers most likely to succeed. He looks at factors that affect the credibility of U.S. threats and promises in the eyes of Iranian leaders. Topics include initiating negotiations, Iran's uranium enrichment program, and historical precedents for the use of coercive diplomacy." READ MORE
Obama’s Second Term Middle East Policy: Will Words Become Actions? Michele Dunne, Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Winter 2013, pp. 119-122. "The Middle East’s problems are complex and even well-intentioned efforts to ameliorate them do not always pay off. Michele Dunne argues that in President Obama’s second term, however, there will be several opportunities to adjust the U.S. approach to the region and to implement proactive policies that advance American interests and regional stability." READ MORE
The End of the Age of Petraeus. Fred Kaplan, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2013, pp.75-90. "The United States' approach to counterinsurgency, championed by General David Petraeus, helped produce stunning results in parts of Iraq and Afghanistan. In retrospect, however, the fuss over the doctrine seems overblown. It achieved mere tactical successes and only in combination with other, non-military factors." READ MORE
The Danger of a Poly-Nuclear Mideast. Shmuel Bar, Policy Review, February 2013, var. pp. Iran is only the beginning of the nuclear problem. The likelihood that the current efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring a military nuclear capability may fail has raised debate in academic and strategic communities regarding the implications of a “poly-nuclear” Middle East, which may include after Iran states such as Saudi Arabia (under the current or a future more-jihadi-oriented regime), Turkey, Egypt (under the Muslim Brotherhood regime), Syria (or a successor state/states thereof), Iraq (or successor states) and Libya. Some respected strategic theorists regard the Cold War experience as highly relevant to such a scenario and point at the fears that permeated the western military establishments of a nuclear China and the fact that a nuclear Indian subcontinent did not result in nuclear war, despite mutual hostility and frequent outbreaks of crisis. Kenneth Waltz even suggests that the very possession of nuclear weapons tempers military adventurism and inculcates a degree of strategic responsibility commensurate with the grave consequences that would result from nuclear conflict. READ MORE
Is the New Middle East Stuck in Its Sectarian Past? The Unspoken Dimension of the “Arab Spring.” Yoel Guzansky, Benedetta Berti, Orbis, Winter 2013, var. pages. “This article focuses on the impact of the Arab Spring on pre-existing societal cleavages, specifically analyzing its impact on Sunni-Shiite relations. How have Sunni-Shiite relationships been reshaped by the ongoing social protests? Is there a rise in the inter-religious tensions among Sunni and Shiite communities across the region? And, if that is the case, what are the implications of this trend on both the region's potential for democratization, as well as on its overall stability and security?” READ MORE
Unrest in the Arab World: Will the Arab Spring lead to more change? Kenneth Jost, The CQ Researcher, February 1, 2013, pp. 105-132. "The wave of popular uprisings that toppled dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya is still roiling the Arab world, but other governments have held on by cracking down on protests or instituting modest reforms. Meanwhile, Syria is engulfed in a bloody civil war that many experts predict will force President Bashar Assad from office but leave the country devastated and politically unstable. Some experts say the events have transformed political attitudes in Arab nations. Others stress that a majority of those countries still have authoritarian regimes. The political dramas are playing out against the backdrop of pressing economic problems, including high unemployment among Arab youths. In addition, the growing power of Islamist parties and groups is raising concerns among advocates of secular government and creating risks of sectarian disputes among different Muslim sects." READ MORE
Israel and Hamas: Is War Imminent? Boaz Ganor, Orbis, Winter 2013, var. pages. "Inarguably, the Islamist revolutions in the Arab countries’ neighboring Israel, and the Muslim Brotherhood's rise to power in these countries, presents Israel with many, perhaps unprecedented, political and security challenges. However, in assessing the threat to its southern border, Israel must analyze in depth the intra- and extra-organizational influences on Hamas's motivation to attack, and formulate a responsible policy to ensure the safety of its citizens. Israel must use every means at its disposal to influence and pressure Hamas's leadership to choose responsibly, and avoid dangerous military “adventures.” READ MORE
The Mirage of the Arab Spring. Seth G. Jones, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2013, var. pages. “The Arab uprisings of 2011, once a great source of hope for democracy enthusiasts, have given way to sectarian clashes and political instability. The Middle East has not yet shed its authoritarian yoke, and the United States needs a policy that reflects that reality.” READ MORE
The Promise of the Arab Spring. Sheri Berman, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2013, var. pages. “It’s easy to be pessimistic about the Arab Spring, given the post-revolutionary turmoil the Middle East is now experiencing. But critics forget that it takes time for new democracies to transcend their authoritarian pasts. As the history of political development elsewhere shows, things gets better.” READ MORE
The Paradox of Islam’s Future. Raymond W. Baker, Political Science Quarterly, Winter 2012-2013, pp. 519-566. The author “argues that the Islamic mainstream has effectively adapted to the globalized world and will shape the future of Islam in ways open to principled accommodation with the West. He claims that mainstream assertiveness, unencumbered by Western interference, provides the most effective way to counter destructive radicalism.” READ MORE
The 2011 Protests: Were they about Democracy? Dawn Brancati, The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2013, pp. 25-35. “Why did so many protests occur in 2011, and in such unlikely places? Although the lack of democracy, foreign assistance, and technology may have aided the protests, statistical evidence indicates the downturn in the global economy played a much more significant role.” READ MORE
Russia, Syria and the Doctrine of Intervention. Samuel Charap, Survival, Feb/March 2013, pp. 35-41. "Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, there have been intermittent hopes that Moscow might play a constructive diplomatic role in resolving it. But the focus on Russia has been deeply misleading. Russia, for reasons that have little to do with Syria itself, was never going to be part of the solution to the crisis – at least on terms that the West and the Syrian opposition could accept. Further, Russia’s centrality to international diplomacy on this issue and its seeming obstinacy expose deep flaws in post-Cold War Western doctrine on international intervention. Russia’s centrality when it comes to Syria is more a function of those flaws than anything else." READ MORE
There Will Be No Islamist Revolution. Olivier Roy, Journal of Democracy, January 2012, pp. 14-19. “Apart from the rather crucial detail of what the “failure of political Islam” means, there is no misunderstanding between Hillel Fradkin and I, but rather a decisive difference in approach and perspective. Fradkin is concerned about what constitutes the essence of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) as an ideological movement, whereas I concentrate on how the Muslim Brothers, as political and social actors, are shaped by the political, social, and religious context in which they now find themselves.” READ MORE
Arab Democracy or Islamist Revolution? Hillel Fradkin, Journal of Democracy, January 2012, pp. 5-13. “Although Olivier Roy and others argue that current circumstances will push ascendant Islamist parties in a democratic direction, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood remains committed to the revolutionary goals that have animated it since its beginnings.” READ MORE
NATO's dealing with a different Gulf now. Jean Loup Samaan, NATO Review, December 2012, var. pages. "What does the Arab Spring mean for NATO? Jean Loup Samaan looks at whether the Alliance needs to change its approach to Arab countries post-Arab Spring, how these changes could look and how to overcome obstacles." READ MORE
Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution: Causes and Impact. Mohamed A. El-Khawas, Mediterranean Quarterly, Fall 2012, pp. 1-23. “Tunisians were the first in the region to oust a long-time dictator, one who had ruled the country for twenty-three years. It was a genuine popular revolution, started without a leader, and was nonpolitical, nonideological, and nonreligious. After toppling President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime, new political parties were established and free and fair multiparty elections were held, a giant step forward in the march toward democracy. The economy continues to be a deep source of discontent, however. Youth blame the government’s inaction for continued unemployment. The Ennahda-led coalition needs to get the right mix of resources to make progress in reducing unemployment. Tunisians cannot do it alone; external assistance is badly needed.” READ MORE
The Future of the Arab Spring: Best-Case Scenario, Worst-Case Scenario. Amir Taheri, American Foreign Policy Interests, November 1, 2012, pp. 302-308. “Over the past two years, a good chunk of the Arab world has witnessed dramatic changes that have inspired both hope and concern. The hope is that the nations of the Mideast would now be able to take the path to democratization. The concern is that they might be seduced by the radical Islamist discourse most pronounced in Iran and its regional allies. At the same time, the specter of sectarian war is looming large.” READ MORE
Iran, the US and Weapons of Mass Destruction. Hossein Mousavian, Survival, Fall 2012, pp. 183-202. "Serious efforts to achieve a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East would help Iran become more forthcoming in resolving questions about its own nuclear programme." READ MORE
Keeping Hamas and Hezbollah Out of a War with Iran. Rafael D. Frankel, The Washington Quarterly, Fall 2012, pp. 53-65. "Would an attack on Iran trigger a coordinated response from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas? The upheaval in the Arab world, including Syria, has reoriented regional geopolitics and presents an opportunity to Israel and the United States if they act quickly." READ MORE
The Arab Spring: Implications for Israeli Security. Jeffrey S. Morton and Nicole Shortt, Mediterranean Quarterly, Summer 2012, pp. 34-51. "The popular uprising that started in Tunisia in December 2010 quickly spread across the Arab world, culminating in a historic regional realignment with far-reaching implications. This essay details the implications of the Arab Spring for Israeli security. After highlighting the history of Israel’s defense strategy and reviewing the Arab Spring revolts, the authors find that the recent uprisings exacerbate several issues faced by Israel, including geopolitical relations with other countries in the region, energy issues, and growing threats presented by nonstate actors." READ MORE
Resilient Royals: How Arab Monarchies Hang On. Sean L. Yom, F. Gregory Gause III, Journal of Democracy, October 2012, var. pages. "The 'Arab Spring' has been very hard on autocratic presidents but so far has left the Arab world’s monarchies intact. How and why have Arab royals been able to resist the tide of protest?" READ MORE
New Findings on Arabs and Democracy. Mark Tessler, Amaney Jamal, Michael Robbins, Journal of Democracy, October 2012, pp. 89-103. "Examined with data from the first and second wave of Arab Barometer surveys are support for democracy, understandings of democracy, desires for reform, values associated with a democratic political culture, views about the political role of Islam, and the relationship between support for political Islam and the embrace of democratic values. Broad continuing trends include strong support for democracy, understandings of democracy that emphasize economic considerations, and a division of opinion about Islam’s political role. Findings from surveys in Egypt and Tunisia in 2011 are discussed in greater detail in relation to post–Arab Spring developments in the two countries." READ MORE
Supplement: TesslerTables-23-4.pdf
The Future of the City : Religious Fundamentalisms in the City: Reflections on the Arab Spring. Nezar AlSayyad, Mejgan Massoumi, Journal of International Affairs, Spring/Summer2012, pp. 31-42. "Around the world, we are witnessing new forms of organization, grassroots mobilization, activism and popular uprisings, all seeking democratic change and social justice. These events evoke both optimism and pessimism about our abilities to predict the future of cities in today’s Global South. Confronted by a growing landscape of poverty, rising inequality in the global economy and acute socio-spatial polarization, we must ask what accounts for these new patterns. Does the reasoning apply equally to cities worldwide or does it exist only within the context of specific urban geographies? Perhaps the most recent and dramatic transformation within the global urban landscape is the Arab Spring. As people in various parts of the Arab world embark on their quest for self-governance, there is no telling where this great experiment will lead. Based on current indications, religion will play a decisive role in shaping the futures of these nations, and particularly their cities. Our aim in this article is to explore the urban processes by which religious movements transform into fundamentalist ones, and how that process may reshape cities." READ MORE
Prudence Suggests Staying Out of Syria. David W. Lesch, Current History, November 2012, pp. 299-304. "We
have learned time and again in history that arming opposition forces,
while improving their chances in the near term, can militarize and
divide a society in ways detrimental to its recovery." READ MORE
Libya and the Limits of Intervention. Stephen Kinzer, Current History, November 2012, pp. 305-309. "A dose of humility might lead Americans to realize that military intervention always produces unforeseen consequences." READ MORE
Beijing and Moscow Balk at "Interference." Rajan Menon, Current History, November 2012, pp. 310-316. "China
and Russia’s stance on Syria is a result of their convergent
conceptions of sovereignty and humanitarian intervention, their
compatible assessments of the nature of the conflict and of Western
motives, and the lessons they learned from the Libyan uprising." READ MORE
A Cold Chill Comes Over the Arab Spring. Richard T. Sale, Mediterranean Quarterly, Summer 2012, pp. 52-62.
“Islam is on the march in the Middle East. For the past few years, in
every Mideast election, the Islamic parties have won: in the Gaza Strip
in 2006 and in Iraq and Tunisia in 2010. In 2011, they won again in
Turkey and Morocco, and in Egypt the Islamist parties confirmed an
overwhelming victory in the first parliamentary elections since the
overthrow of Hosni Mubarak. The Muslim Brotherhood won the biggest share
with the hard-line Salafist al Nour Party of Light. The youth groups
that staged the demonstrations that toppled Mubarak took only seven
seats. What are the implications for US policy and its ideals of
self-determination and human rights? Will the liberals triumph, or will
the Egyptian people face a hard-line Islamic future? This article
attempts to answer these questions.” READ MOREThe Arab Spring: Should Turkey Coordinate Its Foreign Policy with the European Union? Aylin Unver Noi, Mediterranean Quarterly, Summer 2012, pp. 63-81. “In this article, Turkey’s and the European Union’s foreign policy approaches to the Middle East and North Africa region are analyzed by focusing on ‘normative power’ and ‘soft power’ concepts, the historical relations among the countries of the region, and the projects developed by the EU and Turkey. The Arab Spring and its repercussions on the EU’s and Turkey’s foreign policy approaches to the region, along with a brief historical background of the Turkey-EU relationship, are evaluated in order to determine whether Turkey should coordinate its foreign policy with the EU.” READ MORE
The Reform of the King. James Traub, Foreign Policy, November 2012, var. pages. “Morocco's mysterious young monarch is promising a "third path" between democracy and tyranny. Is it a model for the Arab world -- or a myth?” READ MORE
Revolution or Coup? Egypt's Fraught Transition. Ewan Stein, Survival, August-September 2012, pp. 45-66. "In retrospect, the January 2011 revolution in Egypt appears to have amounted to an intra-regime coup, with the military faction prevailing over a rival business faction. The full story is more complex." READ MORE
Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007? Stephen Biddle, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Jacob N. Shapiro, International Security, Summer 2012, pp. 7-40. "Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007? Many policymakers and scholars credit the 'surge,' or the program of U.S. reinforcements and doctrinal changes that began in January 2007. Others cite the voluntary insurgent stand-downs of the Sunni Awakening or say that the violence had simply run its course with the end of a wave of sectarian cleansing; still others credit an interaction between the surge and the Awakening. The difference matters for policy and scholarship, yet this debate has not moved from hypothesis to test." READ MORE
Syria's Torment. Christopher Phillips, Survival, August-September 2012, pp. 67-82. "While there is a sliver of hope that a negotiated solution in Syria can be found, the Assad regime seems willing to destroy the country rather than give up power. The future looks bleak." READ MORE
The Jihad Paradox: Pakistan and Islamist Militancy in South Asia. S. Paul Kapur, Sumit Ganguly, International Security, Summer 2012, pp. 111-141. “Islamist militants based in Pakistan pose a major threat to regional and international security. Although this problem has only recently received widespread attention, Pakistan has long used militants as strategic tools to compensate for its severe political and material weakness. This use of Islamist militancy has constituted nothing less than a central component of Pakistani grand strategy; supporting jihad has been one of the principal means by which the Pakistani state has sought to produce security for itself. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the strategy has not been wholly disastrous. Rather, it has achieved important domestic and international successes. Recently, however, Pakistan has begun to suffer from a “jihad paradox”: the very conditions that previously made Pakistan's militant policy useful now make it extremely dangerous. Thus, despite its past benefits, the strategy has outlived its utility, and Pakistan will have to abandon it to avoid catastrophe. Other weak states, which may also be tempted to use nonstate actors as strategic tools, should take the Pakistani case as a cautionary lesson.” READ MORE
The Transformation of the Arab World. Olivier Roy, Journal of Democracy, July 2012, pp. 5-18. "The electoral triumph of Islamist parties has dampened the enthusiasm of democrats for the 'Arab Spring.' Was the Arab Middle East hopelessly trapped, with no better choices than 'secular' dictatorship or 'Islamic' totalitarianism? The answer to that last question is no. Something irreversible did happen in the Arab Spring. Whatever ups and downs may follow, we are witnessing the beginning of a process by which democratization is becoming rooted in Arab societies." READ MORE
Israel’s National Security Amidst Unrest in the Arab World. Ephraim Inbar, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2012, pp. 59-73. "Despite all the optimism, the Arab uprisings have emphasized the shifting regional balance of power toward Iran and Turkey, not Israel, and the decline of U.S. influence. Israel now faces greater regional isolation, terror, threats to the Eastern Mediterranean sea lanes and energy resources, and the prospects of a nuclear Iran." READ MORE
Private Foreign-Affiliated Universities, the State, and Soft Power: The American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo. Rasmus G. Bertelsen, Foreign Policy Analysis, July 2012, pp. 293–311. "The USA has pursued national soft power through the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo since the 1950s. University soft power has been furthered by US government financial assistance to academic excellence, while too close association with the US government has threatened university soft power. The universities have contributed to the national soft power of the USA concerning milieu goals of attraction to education, language, and liberal norms among elites. The universities have not contributed to national soft power regarding the acceptance of unpopular US foreign policies in the Middle East, which was also not a university or US government goal." READ MORE
The Rise of Settler Terrorism. Daniel Byman and Natan Sachs, Foreign Affairs, Sep/October 2012, pp. 73-86. "Israeli authorities in the West Bank have long worried about stopping Palestinian terrorism. Now, they need to add a new item to the agenda: stopping radical Jewish settlers who have begun attacking innocent Palestinians and Israeli soldiers alike. Jerusalem has to the stop the violence, and Washington should help." READ MORE
Islamic Sectarianism: Can Sunni-Shiite hostilities be resolved? Leda Hartman, The CQ Researcher, August 7, 2012, pp. 353-376. "Sectarian rifts are almost as old as Islam itself. They surfaced in 632, shortly after the death of the Prophet Muhammad, when Muslims disagreed over who should succeed him. Although the original sectarian split was violent, Islam's two major branches — Shiism and Sunnism — have co-existed peacefully more often than not over the centuries. But recently, sectarian tensions once again have erupted into full-scale violence in the wake of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and last year's Arab Spring democracy movement. The volatile situation is not just about theology. Competition for power and privilege intensifies the hostility and distrust. In postwar Iraq, sectarian attacks killed 325 people in July, the highest monthly toll since August 2010. Currently, the epicenter of the sectarian crisis is Syria, where the Sunni opposition is battling the Shiite Alawite regime of Bashar Assad. Experts fear the violence could engulf significant parts of the Middle East. Meanwhile, other countries have lined up on either side of the fight, with Iran, Russia and China supporting the Syrian regime and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Gulf States and the West supporting the rebels. READ MORE
Al Qaeda’s Post–9/11 Organizational
Structure and Strategy: The Role of Islamist Regional Affiliates.
Anthony N. Celso, Mediterranean Quarterly, Spring 2012, pp. 30-41. "The
political transformations under way in the Arab world and the killing
of Osama bin Laden raise serious questions about al Qaeda’s long-term
viability. The secular-liberal Arab Spring protest movement appears
to be winning the war of ideas over al Qaeda’s violent religious
fundamentalism. Civil disobedience campaigns in Tunisia and Egypt
succeeded in forcing regime change in ways that a decade of al Qaeda
terror attacks failed to accomplish. While it is too soon to write al
Qaeda’s obituary, its erosion came well before the death of its historic
leader. This essay examines al Qaeda’s post–9/11 evolution, its
strategy, and its steady fragmentation. Since the destruction of its
Taliban Afghan sanctuary, al Qaeda has been through many mutations, none
of which, over time, has been successful. This essay argues that al
Qaeda’s failures in Iraq contributed substantially to the
organization’s decline." READ MORE
Is Libya Cracking Up? Nicolas Pelham, New York Review of Books, June 21, 2012, var. pages.
"Muammar Qaddafi's was overthrown more than eight months ago, but now
violence in the south of the country is even worse than it was during
the struggle to oust him, writes Nicolas Pelham. Although last October
Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the National Transitional Council chariman,
declared an end to the civil war, Libyans are still being killed and
injured every day, and tens of thousands are being displaced in ethnic
feuding." READ MORE
Arab Fall or Arab Winter? Howard J. Wiarda, American Foreign Policy Interests, Spring 2012, pp. 134-137.
"Criticizing the concept of an “Arab Spring,” the author is
pessimistic about democracy and development in the Arab countries that
have recently overthrown authoritarian leaders. Overthrowing a
dictatorship is much easier than building a functioning democracy and a
stable society to replace it. Few of the countries in the Arab Middle
East have the requisite level of civil society, institutions, middle
class, political culture, level of socioeconomic development, and
proximity to other developed democracies (the mentoring factor) to
support democracy. Reviewing the literature on democracy and
development, the author systematically assesses the Arab Middle East in
light of its democratic prospects. His prognosis is pessimistic—at
least in the short run. He also distinguishes between countries at
different levels of development. As for U.S. policy, the author
recommends greater realism and less romance and wishful thinking." READ MORE
Was the Arab Spring Worth It? Hussein Ibish, Foreign Policy, July-August 2012, var. pages.
"Last year's Arab revolutions captured the world's imagination as they
toppled dictators from Tunis to Sanaa. But what they haven't yet done
is make life measurably better for the people throwing off the
tyrant's yoke. The price of freedom may be incalculable, but it seems
equally hard to tally up the very real costs of the so-called Arab
Spring. How many have died or been displaced in these conflicts? How
have they affected economies and standards of living? Have they made
their societies more or less stable? A look at the numbers so far makes
for grim accounting." READ MORE
After the Spring: A White Paper on the Findings of the ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey 2012, var. pages.
"For the 2012 survey, we spoke to the region’s youth one year after
the start of these dramatic events that began in Tunisia, one of the
two new countries, along with Libya, we introduced to this year’s
survey. We have thus themed this year’s survey, “After the Spring.” In
the wake of this period of incredible change, the findings of the
ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey 2012 reveal that young
people in the Middle East are now less concerned about greater
political participation – although that is still important to them.
Today, however, the top priorities for young people in the Arab world
are earning a fair wage and owning their own home." READ MORE
The Many Faces of Islamist Politicking. Camille Pecastaing, Policy Review, June 1, 2012, var. pages. "Much
has been made of the recent success of Islamist parties in national
elections that followed the Arab Spring. While some praise Islamism
as the first genuine expression of popular sovereignty in a long
time, others warn of an Islamic winter. They read Islamist candidates
as a fifth column for a fundamentalist theocracy, or at best for an
illiberal democracy where individual liberties suffer under the
overbearing presence of religion in the public sphere. Both readings are
wrong because history is not yet written, and the Islamists know no
better than anyone where their recent success might take them. And
while their ascent appears almost universal — they are now in
government in many Arab countries — their accession to the highest
levels of power has been contextual. Starting from common origins,
they followed different routes to get there. More than anything, what
they showed over the decades in the wilderness was pragmatism and
adaptability to challenging environments, characteristics that they
will have to draw upon to move from the conquest to the exercise of
power in the post–Arab Spring era." READ MORE
Syria’s Stalemate: The Limits of Regime Resilience. Bassam Haddad, Middle East Policy, Spring 2012, pp. 85-95.
“We are witnessing in Syria a stalemate between regime and opposition.
The battle has been constructed as a zero-sum game from the very
beginning, increasing the stakes tremendously for all parties involved,
most notably for the regime.” READ MOREThe Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime Is Likely to Survive to 2013. Joshua Landis, Middle East Policy, Spring 2012, pp. 72–84. “Will President Bashar al-Asad make it to 2013? Chances are he will. Despite his regime's rapid loss of legit-imacy, its growing isolation and tanking economy, no countervailing force has yet emerged that can take it down. Four elements are important in assessing the regime's chances of surviving to 2013: its own strengths, the opposition's weaknesses, the c”ances of foreign intervention, and the impact of sanctions and economic decline." READ MORE
Radicals Rising. Who are Egypt’s Hard-line Islamists and What Do They Want? Wendell Steavenson, The New Yorker, April 30, 2012, var. pages. “Among the Islamists, the most powerful entity is still the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party, which, with forty-two per cent of the seats, is by far the largest party in parliament. Its electoral success was no surprise. The success of the less well organized, more extremist Nour Party, however, surprised everyone.” READ MORE
Egypt in the Moment. Jeffrey Bartholet, National Geographic, May 2012, var. pages. “In the wake of the Arab Spring, Egypt is full of unprecedented hope--and gnawing fear, writes Jeffrey Bartholet for National Geographic.” READ MORE
Political Rights, Development, and Corruption in the Balkan and Arab Mediterranean Countries. Petros Sioussiouras and Ioannis Vavouras, Mediterranean Quarterly, Winter 2012, pp. 89-103. “This essay provides an account of the phenomenon of corruption in the Balkan and Arab countries of the Mediterranean. The analysis focuses on the effects that the political system—approached through the lens of political rights—and the level of economic development have on corruption. These factors are of critical importance for analyzing the scale of corruption in the region and should form the core of any anticorruption strategies.” READ MORE
Do the Post-Communist Transitions Offer Useful Lessons for the Arab Uprisings? Adrian A. Basora, Orbis, Spring 2012, pp. 278-288. “In January 2011, when the Arab protest movements were just beginning in Tunisia and Egypt, few experts predicted the speed and extent of their spread. Fewer still suggested that there were significant analogies to the wave of post-communist revolutions that swept through Europe and Eurasia starting in 1989. However, such comparisons have become more frequent as the uprisings have continued. This article examines whether the current uprisings and political ferment in the Arab world have enough in common with the transitions that began two decades ago in Eastern Europe to provide useful analytical and policy comparisons.” READ MORE
The Year of the Arab Uprisings. Arch Puddington, Journal of Democracy, April 2012, pp. 74-88. “Despite improvements, however, Burma, Egypt, and Libya remained in the Not Free category. [...]while the Middle East experienced the most significant improvements, it also registered the most declines, with a list of worsening countries that includes Bahrain, Iran, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. In far too many parts of the world, these qualities proved to be in short supply during 2011. [...]in addition to singling out the fullfledged authoritarians for special attention, it is imperative to shine the spotlight on leaders who, having come to power through legitimate democratic means, have set about systematically undermining the aspects of freedom that they find inconvenient.” READ MORE
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