Saturday, November 1, 2014

Iranian nuclear file between scientific facts and political realities

Army Magazine - Issue 343 | January 2014

Studies and Research

Iranian nuclear file between scientific facts and political realities

Prepared by: Dr. Ahmed altitude Dean retired

«Speak to the wise men of arms, but they generally need to be translators ...».
(Bindar..haar ancient Greek)

In November 24, 2013, signed «nuclear agreement» between major countries set
(5 +1) and Iran in Geneva, Switzerland. Agreement, which called the «Geneva interim agreement has text» (Interim Geneva Accord) on the short-term the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for reducing the freeze imposed economic sanctions on Iran, while the signatory countries are working on a long-term agreement. This agreement is the first formal agreement between Iran and the United States 34 years ago.

Welcoming and communicative
American publishing details of the agreement which was reached between Iran and major powers in Geneva in the early hours of Sunday November 24, 2013 morning, which he described President Obama b «important first step.»
The agency «Associated Press» News has reported (in November 2013) that officials in the administration of President Obama met secretly with the Iranians, and face to face, five times during the year 2013, in the State of Oman in attempts to find the exits to the crisis of the Iranian nuclear program. The agency also reported that President Obama has been briefed Benjamin Netanyahu on the results of these meetings in secret during the latter's visit to Washington at the end of September 2013.
Meanwhile, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warmly welcomed this agreement, describing it as «historic», International Atomic Energy Agency «Director Yukiya Amano also said» that the agreement is an important step in the framework of the agreement concluded between the IAEA and Iran, and to increase the international inspectors visits to Iranian nuclear facilities. In response to the agreement, the European Union announced a reduction of the sanctions imposed on Iran, starting from last December, while Canadian Prime Minister said that his country will maintain sanctions until reaching a final agreement.
Chinese Foreign Minister expressed the view that the agreement «will help the various parties to deal normally with Iran, which will contribute to securing a better life for the Iranians.»
Saudi Council of Ministers issued a statement saying that the agreement could represent «a preliminary step towards a comprehensive solution to the Iranian nuclear program, whether led to the elimination of all weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear weapons in the Middle East and the Gulf region.»
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said «that what has been achieved in Geneva is not a historic agreement it is a historic mistake», also said «Today the world has become a more dangerous place because« the most dangerous regime in the world »has taken an important step towards getting the most dangerous weapon in the world step» and perhaps this is what proximity to the Saudi position of rejecting the initial possession of Iran's nuclear weapons.
In general, most countries welcomed the agreement between Iran and the big powers, although to varying degrees, but Arab public opinion on the need to gather Israel also signing a treaty to rid the Middle East of weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear weapons.
This agreement aims to put an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions in exchange for a partial suspension of international and Western sanctions imposed on it, and will see a specific period of six months commencing early 2014 international precise control of Iran's nuclear activity and the extent of Tehran's commitment to its provisions.

Terms of the agreement
According to the agreement (with many details of the items contained), Iran is committed to the following:
- To stop enriching uranium to a higher rate of 5 percent.
- Get rid of the amount of uranium fertilized to 20 percent.
- Stop any development of the capacity to enrich uranium.
- Not to increase the stockpile of enriched uranium to the 3.5 percent ratio.
- Stop any activity in the Arak reactor and halt any progress in the field of uranium plutonium.
- In full transparency to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency, the sudden and daily inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities, including centrifuge plants.
The major powers to ease the obligations they include «a limited and temporary and changeable» system of sanctions on Iran, while retaining the basic structure of the sanctions as it is during the six-month period, and includes:
- Not to impose any new sanctions if Iran committed itself to what has been agreed upon during the period of 6 months.
- Suspension of specific sanctions such as penalties for dealing in gold and metals sector of the Iranian automotive and petrochemical exports including Iran provides them with $ 1.5 billion of oil revenues, and allow reforms and rehabilitation of some Iranian airlines.
- To keep the Iranian oil sales at the current low level (which is at least 60 percent from the levels of 2011), and allow the transfer of $ 4.2 billion of the proceeds from those sales to Iran in installments in conjunction with Tehran's commitment to its obligations in the agreement.
- Allow the transfer of $ 400 million from Iran's frozen assets to cover the expenses of Iranian students studying abroad.
In total, Iran would benefit by about $ 7 billion, but the bulk of foreign reserves (about 100 billion US dollars) will remain constrained by the penalties, and will remain the sanctions imposed on Iran's energy sales (will not be allowed to increase exports) as well as on Iran's central bank and a number of banks and other financial institutions.
As well as the penalties will continue to more than 600 figures and Iranian entities that have a relationship with the nuclear program and missile program. In addition to the basic sanctions on other sectors such as manufacturing and shipping military, and international sanctions, and those relating to the status of Iran as «state sponsor of terrorism».

Iran's nuclear file: from conflict to cooperation
The launch of Iran's nuclear program in the fifties of the twentieth century with the help of the United States in the framework of the program «Atoms for Peace», where the United States and European governments and Western participated in this program that the Iranian Revolution of 1979 overthrew the Shah of Iran.
Iran signed the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1968 and ratified it in 1970, making Iran's nuclear program subject to verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
After the Islamic Revolution (1979), Imam Khomeini ordered the dissolution of the secret nuclear weapons research program, as this was considered prohibited weapons under the morality and Islamic jurisprudence. But he returned to allow small-scale research in nuclear weapons, and allowed to re-run the program during the Iran-Iraq war, the program has undergone major expansion after the death of Ayatollah 1989.
Iran's nuclear program has included several research sites are: uranium mines, a research reactor, and facilities that include a uranium enrichment plants of the three known address.
The «Bushehr» reactor first nuclear power plant in Iran, has been completed with the help provided by a large agency Rosatom, the Russian state. It was officially opened on 12 September 2011. Iran announced that it is working to create a new nuclear power plant in Darkhovin capacity 360 MW. Atomenergoprom company also announced (Russian engineering company contractor) that the Bushehr nuclear power plant will reach full production capacity of by the end of 2012, Iran has also made it clear that they will seek to medium-sized manufacturing plants for energy production and exploration of uranium mines in the future.

Research and experiments!
In November 2011, governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency board criticized Iran after IAEA report concluded that Iran had conducted probably research and experiments aimed at developing nuclear weapons capabilities before the year 2003.
A number of Western nuclear experts have stated that there was very little new in this report, and that the media gave importance exaggerated, Iran has rejected the details of the report and accused the IAEA's pro-Western bias, and threatened to cut cooperation with them.
In fact, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in its report (2003), for the first time, that Iran did not declare nuclear contributions sensitive and activities in enrichment and reprocessing, which can be used to enrich uranium to produce fuel for reactors (in the higher levels of enrichment) for the manufacture of weapons. While Iran said that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, and that it had enriched uranium by less than 5 ?, consistent with fuel for a civilian nuclear power station. She added that she had to resort to secrecy after several US pressure.
The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency demanded that Iran suspend uranium enrichment activities, while the Iranian president at the time, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that sanctions imposed by «arrogant powers which» is «illegal», and that Iran has decided to continue monitoring its own and through peaceful «Track appropriate legal ».
After public allegations about Iran's nuclear activities not previously announced, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has launched an investigation in November 2003 concluded that Iran had failed to meet the obligations stipulated in the NPT safeguards agreement, although it is acknowledged that there was no evidence of its nuclear weapons. Delayed conclusion IAEA Board of Governors on Iran for non-compliance with the NPT until September 2005, and report on the matter to the UN Security Council in February 2006.
Subsequently, the Security Council demanded in its resolution number 1696 (the date of July 31, 2006) Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program, and the imposition of sanctions under Resolution No. 1737 (December 23, 2006) after it refused to do so.

Iran refuses to abandon its
In exchange for halting its uranium enrichment program, offered Iran «a comprehensive and long-term arrangement that would allow the development of relations and cooperation based on mutual respect and build international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program». However, Iran has refused to abandon its uranium enrichment program, arguing that it is essential for the security of their energy, and because «the overall arrangements for the long-term» can not be relied upon in itself ... in June 2009, following the presidential elections in which Iran agreed in principle to agreement to give up its stockpile of low-enriched uranium in exchange for fuel for a medical research reactor, but then reneged on the deal.
To allay fears that its uranium enrichment program can be converted to use non-peaceful, Iran offered to put more restrictions on its enrichment program including, for example, to ratify the Additional Protocol to allow inspections more stringent than before the International Atomic Energy Agency, and operating facility uranium enrichment in «Natanz» as a fuel multinational participation of foreign representatives, and plutonium reprocessing, and the conversion of enriched uranium into fuel rods for the reactor. Iran also offered to open its uranium enrichment program private and public foreign posts, in response to the suggestions of the Committee on International Atomic Energy Agency experts, which can contribute to the reduction of national capacities for the production of nuclear weapons has been supported by some US experts, non-governmental, this approach.
The United States has insisted that Iran meet the demands of the UN Security Council to suspend its uranium enrichment program, the existence of a doubt that Iran is conducting a secret uranium or reprocessing.
Pierre Goldschmidt noted, former deputy director general and head of security assurances in the agency, and Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Center for Nonproliferation Policy Education, the cases are never reported to the Security Council. South Korea is, for example, is enriching uranium to levels close to weapons-grade production, this country has voluntarily informed himself about his activities, and Goldschmidt said: «political considerations also played a dominant role in the Council's decision not to raise to the Security Council a formal non-compliance result».
On 23 March 2012, quote the US Congress report Research February service for 2012 return to report the twenty-fourth agency, saying that Iran had stockpiled 240 pounds of uranium by uranium to 20% - a level of enrichment needed for medical applications - and in the context of significance on its ability to reach levels higher.
Officials have said the CIA interviewed by The New York Times reported in March 2012; they continued to assess the Iran situation, and they think they did not re-run its own weapons program, which had been stopped in 2003, and although it has found evidence that there are some related to military activities are still taking place, also reported that the Israeli Mossad involved in this belief.

Security Council and the crisis
The UN Security Council issued a number of decisions dealing with the Iranian nuclear crisis and responded mostly under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, namely:
- Resolution No. 1696 Date of July 31, 2006, and the request for suspension of uranium enrichment under the implications of Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations.
- Resolution No. 1737 Date December 23, 2006, the imposition of sanctions on Iran for its failure to comply with the previous resolution.
- Resolution No. 1747 Date March 24, 2007, and to expand the sanctions and welcomed the initiative of the five major countries + Germany to intervene in resolving the Iranian problem.
- Resolution 1803 dated 3 March 2008, includes the expansion of the sanctions and to prevent the export of some products that could help Iran's nuclear and missile program.
- Resolution 1835 dated 27 September 2008, confirms the previous four decisions, which is the only decision-making among the seven who did not respond under Chapter VII.
- Resolution No. 1929 Date June 9, 2010, spent a halt Tsidirba types of weapons to Iran, which is related to ballistic missiles and ship-borne inspection and detention, and freeze the assets of members of the Revolutionary Guards, and shipping lines.
- Resolution No. 1984 Date June 8, 2011, and the decision to extend the previous work for an additional 12 months.

Iran's nuclear program between scientific facts and political realities
Featuring the Iranian nuclear file from other contemporary international crises and conflicts files being based on a lot of the elements of uncertainty in the intentions and little scientific facts and concrete facts and proven conclusively. This has expanded the security debate and political conflict and economic raised area around it and continuing for more than a decade between Iran and its neighbors in the region (the Gulf states and Israel), as well as Mabinha and between the major powers, especially the United States of America.
It is known that the States have the right to enrich uranium to a level of 5% for the production of civilian energy such as electricity and this Matkvlh Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as up to 20% for the production of some of the radiographic material to treat certain diseases such as cancer. But the use of these rights is subject to the rules and principles and measures to provide for the protection of the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors continued through specific means and so monitored. Since the NPT States has blocked the production of nuclear weapons, any more than the state of the uranium enrichment ratio somewhat above twenty percent is considered that it is seeking to produce nuclear weapons, which can be obtained after the enrichment ratio above 80 to 90 percent. It is known that it requires a complex process of scientific and technical equipment and the potential for expensive and time periods longer or shorter according to the potential of these countries and their experiences.
Considered Iran a state seeking to acquire nuclear weapons through some of the indicators and scientific evidence and that it is seeking to enrich uranium to a higher percentage than the 5% has reached 20% according to some intelligence reports and some IAEA inspectors who prevented Iran sometimes access to its nuclear facilities, which raising the degree of uncertainty in its nuclear program and push the big countries, especially the United States and the Gulf states and Israel, to raise their voices in general this enrichment and demand it stop. The crisis has reached the extent of threatening to beat up these facilities or to wage war by Israel, and even by the United States of America. The Iran adheres to the legal right to enrichment and declare the intention to produce nuclear weapons. But between the Western suspicion of Iran's nuclear intentions and denial of Iran to these suspicions and accusations, the wider gap between Iran and the big powers that used the UN Security Council and political clout to impose sanctions on Iran influenced effectively in the Iranian economy and reflected on the political and economic life and on the nuclear file management. The obvious question here is: Why prevent major countries Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to intervene to prevent the enrichment process and did not intervene in cases such as Israel, India, Pakistan and Korea? And whether the issue is the issue of uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons or that the other dimensions of the case?

Agreement or deal?
Iran managed this file in a manner ranging between sclerosis in maintaining its right to enrichment and diplomacy in attempts to reach a solution is not to deny that right or to abolish it with the Permanent announcing its nuclear program is peaceful and the desire to establish the best of relations with its neighbors.
With the geopolitical changes that have affected the political reality in the region and the ocean, and alter the balance of geostrategic power between the parties to the changing world order, and with the emergence of terrorism as a lever for a multitude of movements for change in the region, and the emergence of Iran as a regional player «many arms», influential and active on the geopolitical stage and geostrategic extending from Afghanistan Even the Mediterranean Sea, the major countries of the view that up to «appropriate agreement» with them (the confluence of interests), was the interim Geneva agreement this expression of a new and pragmatic vision in resolving complex international crises through diplomatic means, which may establish an international understandings coming addresses resolve other crises chronic issue Palestine, as a crisis or a modern Syria, Iraq, or possibly face more complex and urgent, such as terrorism and religious movements expiatory emerging in the region, including threatening the interests of the major powers the same risk.
Moreover, this agreement may reflect positively and ease tension in the region between Iran and neighboring countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, and between Iran and the United States is behind Israel and the Palestinian cause, and related crises are intertwined, and interests intersect over the Greater Middle East (Theater North Africa and Egypt to Yemen, and the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Abralarac, Syria, Lebanon, and an extension to Turkey and the Caspian Sea, and from there to Afghanistan and Central Asian states, Russia and China).
You might as well pay the agreed Iranian - American (specifically), or pay some affected by the establishment of an alliance Mnawye to limit Iran's strategic gains in the region, and this is what mysteries and Tbachireh began to emerge ...


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