Obama and Erdogan: the siege of internal and external fading magic

• Updated: May 27 / May 2013, 10:55
• Propagation: May 19 / May 2013, 13:42
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Research Centers and American newspapers dealing with cash stinging Turkish Prime Minister after his visit to Washington, and shed light on the failure of his foreign policy, in addition to the internal scandals that affect Obama and Erdogan.

Erdogan had hoped to visit him persuade Washington to move toward Syria

It behooves Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan read variables geo - political in the region and perfectly reflect his intention before boarding a plane on his way to Washington, especially since the visit came after the US-Russian agreement to proceed with a negotiated solution in Syria instead of the equation zero.

On the other side, not aids the rapid developments in U.S. domestic agenda of the visiting Turkish multi-track files, especially for the emerging dilemma for the U.S. administration in the spy scandal to the fourth power, followed by the crisis of the Tax Authority to target groups opposed to the administration's policy.

Ahead of the visit, did institute "Carnegie" Advice to Erdogan, he should check out before receiving insults lining of President Obama at their joint press conference at the sight of the world, which eased the severity of the accusations of the Syrian government using chemical weapons;, which embraced the Erdogan government novel and promoted globally . Advice Institute (May 13 this month) was brief and eloquent: "It was a chance for selection vocabulary skill and a delicate balance, and stay away from publicity ads or emotion emotions, (which would) demarcate the parameters of Turkish politics and the location for several years to come within a yard teeming with players key in an area characterized by complex ".

He also urged the Institute of Turkish government to stand aside in the Syrian developments as "the responsibility to stop the bleeding is the responsibility of the United States and Russia .. The Turkey and Qatar can, together play the role of assistant Astafta The two along with the consensus, which will result in the international conference" next.
The day to meet Erdogan, Obama explained his eye again Institute for the guest visiting Ankara's role in the formation of multiple boards of the opposition that the "Friends of Syria .. close to start the search again for the framework of a representative of the opposition forces have a greater credibility .." (Carnegie May 17).
If, bookmaker Turkey to defeat the Syrian government fell and heard a loud Erdogan before he came to meet with President Obama.

To meet with the two leaders in 2009 Excellence in ecstatic triumph over Habitema high, Obama singled out the Erdogan to play a role in the region on behalf of the tasks in minutes Kalmlv Iranian nuclear allergy. Erdogan and swizzle role in the performance of the decree to renew his allegiance to his country's role in the U.S. strategy in the region, and is a successful economic model should be following the example of its territory, particularly toward Syria.

Were not visit Obama's first as president of the United States to Turkey just a coincidence, but reinforced by the growing betting them to play a multiple roles serve solid U.S. strategy as stated in his speech at the time, saying that the visit "constitutes evidence of the importance of Turkey, not the United States, but to the world .. and has views a window on a big fan of regional and strategic challenges that we face. " Obama also stressed that Turkey represents a point of convergence of East and West, its significance in reference to the European Union, which did not make a single step process for the acceptance of Turkey's Muslim within its membership.

According to the American moral support, Erdogan went to the practice of foreign policy offensive and harness sources of power and influence in the Turkish service. And emerged as his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu proudly policy of "zero problems with neighbors", displays merchandise to strengthen Turkey's role as a reference to resolve various crises.

Came the first translations of those trends on the tongue and the then U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has assured the world that no concern for the transmission of the events of the "Arab Spring" to Syria as Turkey controls to grips with things there. Among what is indicated by the statements that fall under the umbrella of the new policy of President Obama, the American policy based on previous direct intervention often lead to the exacerbation of the situation in the Middle East instead of preparing the ground to solve.

The results of the strategy Obama and his political team to Turkey came quickly disappointing for the bulls on Turkey's ability to exercise influence of the old Ottoman Empire in the region; came, but also as an indicator of a waiver for America's role in favor of Turkey to take the role of initiator in the new policy. To denote, evolved crisis of U.S. policy toward Syria, where Obama became stalled in desperate need of anyone to take the initiative in order to build and grasped them.

Joint Press Conference Obama and Erdogan carry clear messages directed to a last resort, especially for not resolving the issue of President Obama's use of chemical weapons, and by extension not to exceed the "red line" for Syria's decree, the hearing Erdogan. It went further clarification by saying, "We need more cooperation and joint action to gather more evidence and reliable information". The boat to say that Turkey's role decree is nearing the end when his emphasis on the "constant practice to pressure from international parties" to the Syrian government, unlike the expectations of Erdogan and his ruling. I enclose Obama deported implicit Turkey commending "the children of Turkish officials .. who are receiving their higher education in American universities," including the sons of President Abdullah Gul and Erdogan and Foreign Minister Davutoglu, like a pedestal to say that "your children in Houdnna" as summed up by some observers.

Erdogan, for his part, has not harbored feelings of satisfaction with the progress of talks with President Obama, when referring to the effectiveness of the U.S. role in Syria in response to reporters' questions, saying he "prefers to look at the full of the cup, and not to the empty part," In a gesture consistent with Obama's remarks , Erdogan noted the need to work with Russia and China in Syrian affairs. In other words, become Erdogan declares reverse his earlier Ohbaha Oaida threat to the Syrian president to leave.

Erdogan was negotiating quiver burdened with the repercussions of the Syrian crisis on his country, and his fear and his team rebound from the ruling resonate within Turkey (Rihaniyya bombings), and the urgent need for U.S. support in several levels. It became clear that Obama has wagered on the exploitation of Turkish influence have not borne fruit as it was drawn to her, but failed to stop the war as a whole or in terms of mitigating the position of President Assad of solution that meets U.S. interests.

Exacerbated the crisis team Erdogan in Syria is not in terms of the flow of Syrian refugees, but the inability to make a decision to go to war or military action is limited inside Syrian territory, especially since the dangerous step of such a must-have to get the support of Americans; addition to the arsenal Turkish military is not on the previous level of power during the Cold War. As Erdogan and his team realize that in spite of its agreement concluded with the latter PKK, the armed forces suffer from the inability to exert control over vast areas of land in the Turkish southeast.

The air force is not the best case, which Edmah loss of fighter jets, most recently near the Syrian border, such as Erdogan's visit to Washington a few days. Infrastructure of the armed forces in the era of Erdogan hit disrepair especially since 20% of the total Turkish officers sits in prison on charges of background with dimensions and political implications.

Erdogan's policies and his team missed the opportunity for Turkey to play the role of regional mediator, who could not have done without the support and the support of Americans.

Growing internal scandals Obama

Obama's domestic problems may pay to cover the steps in foreign policy

Fashionable in the history of the American presidency to print a second presidential term stream of scandals and the deterioration of the proportion of popular support as a result. Obama, in his second term, seemed to be coming to an anomaly for his predecessors until early last month, despite a steady drumbeat of disturbing details about what really happened in the armed assault on the headquarters of the U.S. mission in Benghazi, September 11, 2012.

Obama's joy did not last long, and soon was surrounded by accusations that falsify the facts about Benghazi. Followed by Confessions tax authority by targeting conservative political organizations, exacerbated by news of the seizure of private phone records of a number of journalists who have uncovered a number of the excesses of government powers and manipulation of the facts. Cycle scandals still in its infancy but it involves components are enough to provoke political storms could a character compass President Obama and pay a painful blow for programs that intend to achieve in the rest of his life and his presidency.

It should be noted in this regard that the joint press conference between Obama and Erdogan, a ceremony with questions from reporters about several internal crises referred to, at the expense of attention to the issues of the Middle East.

Proved subsequent investigations in the matter of Benghazi that the administration was aware of the attack, the pipeline was attributed to al-Qaeda, unlike her claims repeated that the attack came against the backdrop of a reaction to the film American offensive to Islam; as it was aimed at a character the attention of public opinion on the eve of the elections (presidential and legislative), and the dimensions of charges against Obama Aonth in dealing with the "war on terror," he says of his opponents. However, most of the public did not give the matter the importance that it should expect to receive the exception sector opponents of the policy of President Obama.

The Agraouathaih taxes that targeted specific political groups are likely to remain alive and talk time, especially since the body does not warmly received, but is facing a lack of confidence and perhaps semi-collective feelings of contempt due to the nature of its functions, which affect the well-being of every member of the community.

For redress historical, American presidents took advantage of the IRS to achieve political goals since ancient times, and still the repercussions of the scandal of President Nixon in the Watergate fresh in front of everyone. Ironically, journalist Carl Bernstein, who played his colleague Bob Woodward in uncovering the secrets of the Watergate scandal that led to Nixon's resignation, describe the procedures for body in interviews televised as "is a flagrant exceeded all limits" and its approach as a "nuclear accident in the process of the explosion."

Initial indications on the actions of the body indicates prior knowledge of the management, while withheld information from Congress.
The abuse scandal to the fourth power of the repercussions that will exceed all of Benghazi and the Tax Authority, for its flagrant defiance of the rights guaranteed by the Constitution, and will not be able to mitigate the horrors administration as it will be for the other two cases. In detail, has been the Ministry of Justice, headed by Eric Holder, who is close to Obama, the control registers own phones for a number of reporters and editors of the agency "Associated Press" news, and included about 20 phone personally and odd for the period of April and May of 2012.

It is natural that all media organizations in solidarity with her colleague, the abused, the Ministry of Justice demanding return of all the original records and the destruction of the remaining copies. The head of the agency, "the Associated Press," Gary Browit, said that ".. the contents of the telephone records may indicate the identity of trusted news sources of the IAEA and its correspondents .. and map to the mechanism of the information collection and disclosure of information relating to the activities and methodology of the agency that is not available to the government and its organs any right or justification to see them. "

Signed administration entangled in the trap, and provided to news organizations a valuable opportunity to repay their goals against the White House, specifically, who is well aware of the outcome of the investigations duo Woodward and Bernstein in the resignation of President Nixon, and the two have become an example honors the integrity of the fourth estate.

From early at present to predict what will accrue to a series of scandals referred to, whether the President was forced to retire from office or resign. The oldest Congress through the history of the American system to move procedures to isolate the president in only two cases: Andrew Jackson and Bill Clinton, and who have not been convicted of a specified offense and flashlight in office to complete Ftertehma governing.

Also, the president's opponents of the Republicans in Congress are worried about the option of isolation procedures for fear of accusations of recruiting issue for political purposes and purely electoral, especially since public opinion compels them a large part of the responsibility for the financial consequences, which won most of the programs service-governmental organizations. It is likely consent to the survival of President Obama in office until the end of his term and leave it heals my damage his reputation alone.
On the other hand, will continue to target those in the former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, out of responsibility for the events of Benghazi in order to undermine the prestige and chances to enter the presidential race circuit in 2016.

Accordingly, we review the possibilities for the most likely caused by a series of successive scandals. First, put an end to the draft laws ambitious for President Obama, but thwarted until the end of his presidential term; since he must harness a great effort to limit the repercussions of comprehensive and appropriate than the limit of his efforts to take advantage of the site's presidential support candidates Democrats for multiple positions at the state or local level, nationalist politician. Due to this consideration, will become President Obama quickly to the burden of the ruling establishment as a whole, and undermines the chances to deal with some opponents Republicans who were counting on their cooperation in some important issues; may even find that his partners Democrats Anawon themselves from it, to avoid the embarrassment of electoral with the rest of his presidential term .

The first victims of the projects will be reflected in Obama's immigration bill, which it began lurching milestones in the corridors of the House of Representatives, as well as the stalled bill, but failed to reduce the acquisition of weapons singles. The issue of push and pull in the annual budget and determine a new roof for government borrowing may be settled after the expiry of the summer, but it involves providing additional concessions Obama than he should have done before the spread of political scandals.

The tax authority has been subject to a reduction in budgets and amendments harsh on the mechanisms of action and the scope of its functions, it may even lead to the imposition of reforms to the system the tax approved and may remove many of the procedural complexities which undermines the influence and the influence of the body and becomes subject to a system of accountability like never before.
In this regard, given the perspective of the role of the body in creating a climate for financing health care programs and Social, known as Obama Care, will leave negative repercussions on the course of the programs.

By extension, this crisis will leave renewable repercussions on the climate of legislative elections next year, without a doubt; especially since some of the current House of Representatives for the Democratic Party have announced their intention not to run for the next period, which may stimulate the radical currents within the Republican Party to drag their candidates for senior positions. Which boosted expectations of the Republican Party and supporters of the possibility of control of the House and Senate in the next session of Congress, as well as this will have positive effects on the levels of the party electoral other.

It is natural that also resulted in the resignation of the investigation coming from some officials, or dismissal, and included Resignations automatically result, not least the escape of some of the boat before drowning, which would leave a void in some hardware configurations and party and government together. What would have on this situation is difficult to recruit replacements for those officials resigned and articles, especially since key positions require approval from the Senate, which the GOP role practiced hang at the lowest levels.

The repercussions of scandals interior will gain the foreign policy of the United States due to it being the prerogative of the President, which may spur President Obama to do some initiatives on that level to adjust the balance of power internal, and may include more drastic measures in the "war on terror" to fend off accusations of hand, and the imposition of a new agenda on the other hand.

In this regard, it may turn President Obama inspissated wounds to taking steps most aggressive in Syrian affairs, or Iran or North Korea, in order to placate the sympathy of public opinion; probably gone also induce paced in the path of peaceful negotiations in the Middle East (as is customary to call ), or work to reach a formula on a nuclear weapons convention with Russia.

President Obama's chances to overcome those crises combined incoming albeit by a weak, especially as the American society usually angry from the president and his political party in the middle of his second term, as evidenced by the historical developments since about 70 years ago, with a few exceptions.

Source: Office of the fields in Washington, in collaboration with the Center for American Studies and Arabic