White House's Hard Line on Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Has Risks Attached

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• CAROL E. LEE
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• PETER NICHOLAS
• CONNECT

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European Pressphoto Agency

President Obama, speaking Thursday in Rockville, Md., ruled out any negotiations over the debt ceiling.

President Barack Obama is sticking to his stance that he won't negotiate with Republicans over the government shutdown or the higher-stakes fight over the federal debt ceiling.
The question, for Republicans and White House allies alike: How long will that resolve last?
Mr. Obama spoke Thursday at a construction company just outside Washington and held fast to his view that Republicans must not attach conditions to bills that underpin the functioning of government.
"There is one way out," he said: Republicans must relent and reopen the government.

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The White House has insisted it won’t negotiate on the debt ceiling, and there is tons of bad blood with the GOP, but it may be forced to do a deal nonetheless. Will there be a breakthrough? Can Democrats stay united? WSJ’s Carol E. Lee and Patrick O’Connor explain.

White House officials believe they have the upper hand, citing evidence that some Republicans are buckling under public pressure. Mr. Obama invited the four congressional leaders to the Oval Office Wednesday, and despite the show of engagement made no concessions, according to people familiar with the meeting.
House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) left the White House and said Mr. Obama "reiterated one more time tonight that he will not negotiate."
Terry Holt, a longtime Republican strategist, said Mr. Obama's strategy rests on a cold-eyed calculation that Republicans are the ones with the most to lose. "As long as the president thinks his poll numbers are going to be good, I don't expect the government to reopen," he said.
Said a senior administration official: "We are winning...It doesn't really matter to us" how long the shutdown lasts "because what matters is the end result."
White House allies, however, say a long shutdown could make the White House's position less tenable. Mr. Obama is the most visible symbol of the U.S. government, they say, and will inevitably share in the blame as hardships mount and people weary of the infighting.
Already, the shutdown has produced images of inconvenience, lost pay, and disruptions in wedding and vacation plans. The Republican National Committee has offered to cover the cost of keeping open the World War II memorial for the next month after a group of veterans toured the site even though it was closed due to the shutdown.
"To the extent that any blame washes onto the Democrats and the president, it's going to be from the sense that this town is just completely dysfunctional and it's everybody's fault," said Matt Bennett, senior vice president of Third Way, a center-left think tank.
Brendan Buck, a spokesman for Mr. Boehner, said: "Ultimately, politics in Washington is a reflection of the president's leadership. People expect their president to be the grown-up in the room, and he's not even in the room."
Mr. Obama said Thursday people should resist the impulse to blame both sides equally.
A new CBS News poll showed 44% blame congressional Republicans for the shutdown; with 35% blaming Mr. Obama and Democratic lawmakers. Every day, White House officials tweet fresh reports of new GOP House members who are breaking with their leadership and calling for the government to reopen.
Another risk for Mr. Obama is that people may not sympathize with his refusal to negotiate over the debt ceiling. The Treasury Department has said that no later than Oct. 17 it will only have $30 billion in cash—a sum that will be exhausted in one or two weeks, according to the Congressional Budget Office. After that point, Treasury is expected to start falling behind on its bills.
Again, Mr. Obama has vowed not to negotiate, saying the consequences of default would be so severe the matter can't be held hostage to political negotiations. "There will be no negotiations over this," he said Thursday.
Hoping to drive home that point, Mr. Obama and his White House team have been sounding alarms, warning there are no guarantees that lawmakers will raise the debt ceiling and avoid default. Mr. Obama has been trying to enlist outside allies with ties to Republicans. He met with top CEOs this week to discuss the shutdown and the need for Congress to lift the debt ceiling, and he plans more outreach with other business leaders and various public officials.
Shaping the White House's hard line are bitter lessons learned from a standoff in 2011 over the debt ceiling, which resulted in a last-minute budget deal. People close to the president said the White House was too flexible in its dealings with Republicans during that episode.
"Looking back on it, we probably did too much accommodating to them," said David Plouffe, a senior White House adviser during the 2011 fight. "The only way this is going to be resolved, both the shutdown and the next round, the debt ceiling, is going to be [Republicans] relenting."
—Colleen McCain Nelson contributed to this article. Write to Carol E. Lee at carol.lee@wsj.com and Peter Nicholas at peter.nicholas@wsj.com