Monday, February 4, 2013

Top of the Agenda: Iran's Warning to Israel Heightens Tensions

Top of the Agenda: Iran's Warning to Israel Heightens Tensions
Iran said Israel would regret its air strike (Reuters) against Syria last week, coming short of spelling out whether Iran or its ally planned any military response. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has accused Israel of trying to destabilize Syria (al-Jazeera) by attacking a military research base outside Damascus last week, reportedly hitting weapons destined for Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group backed by Syria and Iran. Assad's accusations came as Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak gave the first hint (AP) of Israeli involvement in the air attack during his appearance at a conference in Munich.
Analysis
"Israel's policy towards Syria has, for two years, consisted of keeping its distance and sending warnings to Assad. As the Syrian state weakens and, at the same time, it has less and less to lose, Israel will find it increasingly difficult to insulate itself from events next door. If air strikes recur, this policy is going to fall apart," writes Shashank Joshi for The Telegraph.
"Why would a regime, struggling to crush a popular, militarized revolution and hell-bent on maintaining power at all costs, give away its advanced weapons? In light of its attempts to thwart direct foreign intervention by threatening to use such arms against external aggressors, it would not make sense for Syrian dictator Bashar Assad to transfer them to his allies," writes Sharif Nashashibi for al-Arabiya.
"Syria has been covertly arming Hezbollah for many years. Hezbollah, along with Iran, is among the few friends the Syrian leadership has left. President Assad may be slowly losing his fight for survival in Syria but the demise of his regime is not yet a foregone conclusion. He may believe that something will survive and having a well-armed ally in Lebanon may suit his longer-term strategic goals, if indeed there is 'a longer-term' for the Assad regime," writes Jonathan Marcus for the BBC.

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