Toothless White House Deal-Making Emboldens Hungry Iran-N. Korea Nuclear Missile Wolf Pact

P5+1 Talks on Iran’s Nuclear Program (Photo credit: US Mission Geneva)

At the same time that Tehran receives sanctions relief while retaining nuclear weapons production capabilities those penalties were intended to terminate, Pyongyang is known to be supporting development of Iran’s long-range warhead delivery systems. Meanwhile, the defiant threat they jointly pose to international stability, the Middle East in particular, rapidly advances unchecked.
According to Bill Gertz in an article published in The Washington Free Beacon, U.S officials were aware that a delegation of Iranian missile technologists was secretly visiting with North Korean officials regarding joint development of a new 80-ton long-range rocket booster capable of carrying a nuclear warhead at the same time Iranian nuclear disarmament negotiations in  Geneva were underway.
Gertz observes that reports of the new booster coincide with the reemergence of Pak To Chum, a key North Korean official in charge of North Korea’s long-range missile and space launch programs last September following a mysterious four-month absence from the public eye.  A year earlier Kim Yong Nam, another senior North Korean official, met with Iran’s supreme leader Sayed Ali Khameni in Tehran. Both sides announced plans to develop closer relations, including defense, science and technology ties, pledging mutual cooperation against their common enemy… the United States. Kim attended the ceremony when Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was sworn in this year.
Several groups from the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group (SHIG) which builds Iran’s liquid-fueled missiles are believed to have traveled to Pyongyang for such purposes during the past several months. SHIG experts were also known to have visited North Korea in 2009 to participate in a test launch of a Taepodong-2 (TD-2) missile. All of Iran’s liquid-fueled missiles, including the Shahab series, are based upon the design of North Korea’s Nodong medium-range vehicles.
A 2009 State Department cable made public by Wikileaks stated that North Korea’s Amroggang Development Bank has worked with the Korea Mining Development Corporation (KOMID) to sell missiles and related technology to SHIG.  Another 2009 cable stated at that time “Iran has the largest and most active missile program in the Middle East,” and that, “Iran has accelerated its work toward developing a domestic space program.”
Incidentally, this was after SHIG was sanctioned by the United Nations for its role in illicit missile transfers in 2006. The U.S. government has also sanctioned it for illicit missile exports.
Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that North Korea and Iran will be able to launch long-range “super ICBM” and heavy-lift space-orbiting nuclear warhead missiles cabable of reaching America within two years. Iran has already carried out several launches of a two-stage Safir space launch vehicle, and revealed a larger Simorgh launcher in 2010. They demonstrated a global reach with a February 2009 launch of an Omid satellite aboard a Safie space launch vehicle.
A July report published by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) states that: “Iran will likely continue to pursue longer range ballistic missiles and more capable [space-launch vehicle], which could lead to the development of an ICBM system.” It concludes that “Iran could develop and test an ICBM capable of reaching the United States by 2015.”
NASIC also reported that “Continued efforts to develop the TD-2 and the newly unveiled [mobile] ICBM show the determination of North Korea to achieve long-range ballistic missile and space launch capabilities.” It warns that “Tehran could attempt to develop and test much of this technology under the guise of an SLV [Space Launch Vehicle] program.”
Bill Gerts quotes an unnamed official saying that North Korea’s missile now being developed in collaboration with Iran “is entirely new from what they have done so far.” The same official suggested that the Obama administration supressed such multiple assessment reports within the government to avoid upsetting the Geneva talks. That indivisual reportedly asked:  “Why does the administration want so much to negotiate a nuclear agreement with Iran if they know full well that that country is building nuclear delivery vehicles?”
Possible further evidence that North Korea is developing a larger missile or space launcher is revealed in commercial satellite imagery of an expanded North Korean Sohae Satellite Launching Station recently released in a “38 North” blog by Nick Hansen at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Photos taken on October 9 appear to show a mobile launch pad under early construction along with another pad first identified in August.  While not definitive, the imagery also  suggests augmented launch support facilities including a beefed-up roadway and rail transport infrastructure.
Gertz notes in his Washington Free Beacon piece that while both North Korea and Iran are believed to be hiding their mega-launcher developments to avoid international sanctions, U.S. State Department envoy for North Korean Nuclear Affairs Glyn Davies has threatened that they may not get away with this. She told reporters in Tokyo: “If we do not see signs of North Korean sincerity, if they do not act, demonstrate that they understand they must fulfill their obligations, give up their nuclear weapons, then there’s more pressure that will be brought to bear on them.”
Yet while the U.S. and South Korea jointly oppose resumption of six-party talks with North Korea until they demonstrate willingness to dismantle their nuclear facilities, there is scant reason to expect any Obama administration threats to bring that about. Ditto for Iran.
If Obama’s faded “red line” in Syria wasn’t reason enough to discount that expectation, Iran’s clear triumph in gaming Geneva negotiators should put any lingering hopes to rest. Not only was Tehran rewarded with a loosening of sanctions…the agreement virtually guaranteed them the right to retain claimed uranium enrichment rights. Regarding surrendering those “rights”,  Secretary of State John Kerry explained, “Foreign Minister Zarif emphasized that they didn’t intend to do this, and the Supreme Leader has indicated there is a fatwa which forbids them to do this.”

Toothless White House Deal-Making Emboldens Hungry Iran-N. Korea Nuclear Missile Wolf Pact

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Whereas previous U.N. resolutions have called for a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program and removal of all materials from the country, this is apparently no longer the rule. Recognizing this development, Former CIA and NSA Director General Michael Hayden told Fox News host Chris Wallace the “red line” with Iran has changed, much like the one drawn in Syria. He said that “Right now, the Iranians are far too close to a nuclear weapon. We have hit the pause button. Now we’ve got to negotiate hitting the delete button with them.” He added, “Iran’s going to be a nuclear threshold state.”
Former Pentagon advisor Michael Rubin mused that “Perhaps John Kerry believes that Iran wants ballistic missiles for peaceful purposes. The fact of the matter is that Kerry and crew left both ballistic missiles and nuclear warhead trigger experimentation at Parchin [military site] off the table” during the Geneva talks… “It’s the diplomatic equivalent of installing a burglar alarm system in your house but leaving the keys in the door.”
That six-month “interim” deal with Iran gives them $7 billion dollars, sanctions relief, and permission to retain its 10,000 operational uranium enrichment centrifuges and stockpiles along with its nearly completed heavy water plutonium reactor at Arak. And while they are supposed to reduce the enrichment level of some of the existing stockpiles from 20% to 5%, that process can be reversed back to “breakout” weapons grade material within a few weeks. In addition, as pointed out in the Jerusalem Post, while Iran is barred from installing additional components to its Arak reactor, “no language explicitly prevents it [Iran] from making components elsewhere, which could then be installed later.”
Who can seriously doubt that Iran’s game plan is to buy more time to develop truly threatening and internationally destabilizing offensive nuclear capabilities? Those dangers of Iran gaining nuclear capabilities pose a direct threat to the entire Middle East, and ultimately to America as well.  As Jonathan Rynhold, a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, observes:  “America is selling out too cheaply, and it’s giving in [to] an extremely serious change in the whole balance of power in the region.
Bipartisan congressional criticism and skepticism regarding terms of the Geneva agreement are growing. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), an outspoken member of his party’s leadership, called it “disproportional”.  Schumer said he expects that the deal “makes it more likely that Democrats and Republicans will join together and pass additional sanctions when we return in December.”
Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee agrees. He has pledged to work with colleagues to have sanctions ready “should the [interim] talk falter or Iran fail to implement or breach the agreement.”
Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) emphasized: “Congress, I think, will want to make it clear that if Iran does not live up to these commitments, we will not only insist that sanctions be reapplied, but we will have stronger sanctions against Iran.” Echoing this sentiment, Michigan Democrat Senator Carl Levin who chairs the Senate Arms Services Committee said “If Iran does not consent to a comprehensive agreement that ensures it cannot acquire a nuclear weapon, there is a broad consensus in Congress to impose even tougher sanctions.”
And as Representative Eliot Engle (D-NY), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee warned: “I don’t trust them, I don’t think we should trust them…Sanctions should always be hanging there because that’s what brought Iran to the table in the first place.”
This being the case, since successful sanctions brought us to a bargaining table, and we left it fleeced, whose fault is that? As Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) who heads the House Intelligence Committee observes: “We have rewarded very bad and dangerous behavior.”
Comparing the current deal with the 1990s pact that lifted North Korean sanctions if they promised to stop work on their nuclear program, Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said: “We’ve seen what happened in North Korea; they now have nuclear weapons. And I don’t want to see that happen in Iran.”
Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) added: “We’ve trusted the Iranians before, just like the North Koreans, on nuclear issues, and what have we gotten for it?”
What have we gotten for it? Quite obviously, we got double-teamed with both. So maybe it’s high time to seriously adjust our game plan.